BANGKOK– Middle East fights create big problems for Thailand’s energy needs right now. The Crisis Management and Monitoring Center (CMMC) raised its oil watch to Level 2 because crude oil shipments keep getting blocked.
People also spot early hoarding inside the country, which stirs up worry and leads to government checks. So, global fights mix with local weak spots. This setup shows how much Thailand counts on energy from other places. It also brings up big questions about keeping supplies safe long-term.
Middle East Fights Block Oil Shipments Worldwide
Fights with the United States, Israel, and Iran hit the main oil paths hard, especially the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil and lots of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through there most times. Iran shut the Strait after strikes hit them. Attacks on setups nearby, plus moves by groups like the Houthis,s add to supply worries like never before.
Oil prices jumped a lot around the world. Dubai crude went up 61% from before the fights. It hit about USD 115 a barrel in early March 2026. Brent crude stayed near USD 100 to 112 a barrel. Markets added a big risk cost from the fights. Experts say prices could stay high even if battles slow down. That’s because fixing broken setups takes months.
Thailand imports most of its energy, so these changes hit hard. The country gets 58% of crude oil from the Middle East. Much LNG comes through risky paths, too. Half of Thailand’s crude oil and 30% of LNG go via the Strait of Hormuz in normal times. So, Thailand faces more risk from Gulf problems than most in Southeast Asia.
Thailand Counts Heavily on Imported Energy
Thailand uses about 124 million liters of refined oil each day under normal setups. Recent panic buys pushed that to 80-85 million liters at times. The country imports nearly 92% of its crude oil. It adds some from home sources and other spots. The
The Middle East supplies lead oil imports at around 58%. Thailand works to get more from the US, Russia, Africa, and the Americas. For natural gas, fields in the Gulf of Thailand give most. But imported LNG now makes up 29-35% of gas, a big jump lately. Qatar sends the most LNG.
LNG and natural gas power 58-60% of electricity. So, world price changes could raise power bills by up to 18% soon. Net energy imports cost Thailand about 6.5% of GDP, one of Asia’s highest loads. Economists at Krungsri Research and SCB EIC say steady high oil prices could cut 2026 GDP growth by 0.2-0.9 points. They first guessed a near 2% growth. Plus, inflation would climb from higher transport and goods prices.
CMMC Raises Alert to Level 2 Over Supply Worries
The CMMC, part of the Joint Management and Monitoring Center for Middle East issues, moved Oil Watch to Level 2 (or 2.2, some say). This means disruptions will last a while. So, they plan backups but stop short of full cutbacks, which come at Level 3.
Government steps include several moves. They build strategic oil stocks from 62 days to almost 100 days. They stock up fast and talk for safe ship paths. Most petroleum exports stopped, except for small amounts to neighbors like Cambodia and Laos. This keeps supplies for home use first. Refineries run at full speed, up to 110%. They also raise biofuel mixes to make oil last.
They grab extra LNG loads fast and look at new sellers. That means quick deals with the US and maybe Russia. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul says Thailand will get through this.
He puts energy safety first. In a talk called “One Month of Global Crisis,” he pointed to good talks for ship safety. The Oil Fund still helps with subsidies, down from THB 24 to THB 16 per liter. Diesel sits at THB 38.90 per liter now. That’s lower than many in ASEAN because of these steps.
Hoarding Issues Pop Up Inside Thailand
Stocks look good for now. However, panic buys and stockpile talk lead to hoarding reports . The Interior Ministry and the Department of Energy Business check over 50 depots and 1,500 gas stations nationwide. They make Section 7 oil sellers report more. Police and the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) track oil moves too.
Punishments hit hard for hoarding, price tricks, or bad storage: up to 10 years in jail and THB 100,000 fines. They found over 30,000 liters of hidden diesel and gas in Saraburi lately. Officials ask people to report odd actions. They push saving energy, too. If each of 10 million homes cuts one liter a day, Thailand saves THB 600 million daily.
Campaigns push work-from-home for government offices, car shares, buses, and save tricks like lighter office clothes. Before Songkran breaks, they watch the demand closely to stop more jumps.
Energy Costs Hit the Economy and People
Higher energy prices spread pain widely. Transport firms, farmers (from pricier fertilizer), and small businesses see thin profits. Government helps with “Thai Helps Thai” plans. Blue Flag stores cut basics 25%. They add welfare cash and aid for hit groups.
Exports to the Middle East and Europe face higher ship costs and area unrest. On the other hand, high world prices might help some Thai energy firms. Still, growth risks win out in most guesses.
This mess shows the need for big changes. Thailand speeds up new import sources. The Ministry of Energy must grab supplies quickly. Talks with the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2026-2027 aim at better safety and clean shifts.
Experts push faster clean power. Thailand has great sun for solar. The Power Development Plan draft raises clean shares. Solar with batteries cuts costs best. It lowers import needs, system bills, and pollution. Goals hit carbon neutral by 2050 and net-zero by 2065.
Right now, they max home gas, coal, and water power. They raise biofuel, too. Medium term, they grow LNG spots with care. They add grid smarts and battery saves. Long-term, they build solar and wind on a large scale. They push electric cars under 30@30 rules and better efficiency.
A clean power path boosts safety, cuts future costs, and fits world clean shifts.
What Comes Next for Thailand
Thailand acts fast so far. Stocks hold up, and prices stay lower than world highs. Yet, things can change quickly. More ship or setup threats could raise the alert level. That might mean cutbacks or bigger Oil Fund aid, which already loses money.
Prime Minister Anutin calls for everyone to join in saving. One month in, Thailand must handle short-term hits. At the same time, it builds safer supplies, more sources, and green power for good. Smart talks, home care, and fast spending on options let the country beat this and cut risks from far-off fights.
