BANGKOK– With global energy markets facing shock waves from Israel’s latest airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Thailand’s Department of Energy Business (DOEB) has stepped in to calm concerns.
The agency confirmed that Thailand’s oil reserves are enough to meet local demand for at least 60 days. This reassurance comes as fears of major supply disruptions grow, following increased tensions in the Middle East that have pushed crude oil prices to their highest level in more than three years.
On 13 June 2025, Israel carried out airstrikes under Operation Rising Lion, hitting Iranian nuclear facilities and military locations with more than 200 aircraft. The strikes resulted in significant casualties, including senior Iranian officials. Iran responded by launching over 100 drones and missiles at targets in Israel, escalating tensions in the region.
The conflict has caused oil prices to jump sharply, with traders preparing for possible supply issues in an area responsible for about a third of the world’s oil production.
Oil Prices Surge After Conflict
Following the strikes, Brent crude oil rose to $74.23 per barrel, a 7% increase , while West Texas Intermediate reached $72.98, up 7.62%. Some experts have warned that a severe scenario, such as Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, could push oil prices above $80.
This narrow waterway is vital, as it handles about 30% of the world’s oil shipped by sea. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, said any halt to Iran’s daily exports of 2.1 million barrels would have a major effect on global supply and inflation.
Despite the price spike, some market analysts remain cautiously hopeful, pointing out that Iran’s key oil production and export facilities were not hit in the initial wave of strikes. Justin Alexander, director at Khalij Economics, said that while risks are reflected in market prices, a total crisis has not yet unfolded. Still, the risk of further conflict remains high, with Iran promising a strong response to Israel’s actions.
Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, with an estimated output of 3.3 million barrels per day in April 2025. About half of this oil is exported, mostly to China, which takes more than 90% of Iran’s oil shipments. These sales bring in around $2 billion each month, making up about 5% of Iran’s GDP and funding about half of its government budget.
Sanctions have made it hard for Iran to upgrade its oil sector, but steady demand from China has kept exports strong in recent years. Any halt in Iranian oil exports would force China to look elsewhere, likely pushing global prices even higher and hitting economies like Thailand.
Iran’s control over the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz adds another layer of risk, as this route is critical for global supply. While Iran has never closed the strait, its allies, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have disrupted shipping in the past, showing how fragile this route can be.
Thailand’s Oil Stocks and Import Sources
As worries mount, DOEB Director-General Sarawut Kaewtathip outlined Thailand’s current oil reserves: 3.104 billion litres of crude oil (covering 23 days), 2.597 billion litres being transported (20 days), and 1.886 billion litres of refined oil (17 days).
Together, these reserves can support the country’s needs for the next 60 days. Sarawut urged people to trust updates from the government and avoid panic buying.
Thailand imports most of its oil, as local reserves are small and declining. In 2023, the country used about two million barrels of oil equivalent in commercial energy each day, with petroleum and natural gas making up most of the mix.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are the main suppliers, all of which ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz. To spread its risks, Thailand also buys oil from Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries outside the Middle East.
Domestic oil production, mainly from offshore fields in the Gulf of Thailand, reached its peak in 2016 at 486,000 barrels per day but has since dropped. With proved reserves at just 0.3 billion barrels, the ratio of reserves to production is only 1.8 years, showing how much Thailand relies on imports. To address this, the government has encouraged biodiesel made from palm oil and invested in renewable energy, though these still make up a small part of the energy mix.
As the Middle East crisis continues, the DOEB is working with other agencies to review the risks and develop backup plans. Thailand’s 60-day oil stock offers a short-term safety net, but longer disruptions could put pressure on supplies and raise fuel costs in the country, affecting transport and manufacturing.
The government’s drive to use more solar power and electric vehicles could help reduce reliance on imports over time, but these steps are only just beginning.
For now, Thai officials are urging people to stay calm, confident that current reserves and plans are enough to manage the situation. Still, with no end in sight to the Israel-Iran conflict and global oil markets unsettled, Thailand remains exposed to events far beyond its borders.
