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Climate is an important driver of human activities at global to local scales. My research and teaching explore climate prediction and the impacts of climate variability and change on human health, water resources, and agriculture. I am particularly interested in the following areas: (1) Drivers of tickborne disease expansion, (2) Future water availability for irrigation and its potential effects on crop yields, (3) High-resolution, application-specific climate projections using global and regional climate models, statistically downscaled datasets, and weather generators, (4) Uncertainty in regional climate model simulations of the water and energy cycles over agricultural areas, (5) Causes and predictability of climate extremes (droughts, floods, heat waves) in the Northeastern United States.
C.F. Cockburn, J.M. Winter, E.C. Osterberg, and F.J. Magilligan, 2023: Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, in press.
C. Picard, J.M. Winter, C.F. Cockburn, J. Hanrahan, P.J. Clemins, and B. Beckage, 2023: Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern United States. Climatic Change, 176, 72.
M. Holthuijzen, B. Beckage, P.J. Clemins, D. Higdon, and J.M. Winter, 2022: Robust bias-correction of precipitation extremes using a novel hybrid empirical quantile mapping method: Advantages of a linear correction for extremes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 149, 863-882.
A. Zia, A.W. Schroth, J.S. Hecht, P. Isles, P.J. Clemins, S. Turnbull, P. Bitterman, Y. Tsai, I.N. Mohammed, G. Bucini, E.M.B. Doran, C. Koliba, A. Bomblies, B. Beckage, J.M. Winter, E.C. Adair, D.M. Rizzo, W. Gibson, and G. Pinder, 2022: Climate change-legacy phosphorus synergy hinders lake response to aggressive water policy targets, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002234.
J.S Hecht, A. Zia, P.J. Clemins, A.W. Schroth, J.M. Winter, P.D. Oikonomou, D.M. Rizzo, 2022: Modeling the sensitivity of cyanobacteria blooms to projected changes in precipitation and temperature variability, Science of the Total Environment, 812, 151586.
J.R. Lopez, J.M.Winter, J. Elliott, A.C. Ruane, C. Porter, G. Hoogenboom, M. Anderson, and C. Hain, 2022: Sustainable use of groundwater may dramatically reduce maize, soy, and wheat production. Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002018.
E.D. Coffel, C. Lesk, J.M. Winter, E.C. Osterberg, J.S. Mankin, 2022: Crop-climate feedbacks boost U.S. maize and soy yields, Environmental Research Letters, 17, 024012.
V. Ratti, J.M. Winter, and D.I. Wallace, 2021: Dilution and amplification effects in Lyme disease: Modeling the effects of incompetent hosts on Borrelia burgdorferi transmission. Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, 12, 101724.
H. Huang*, C.M. Patricola, J.M. Winter, E.C. Osterberg, and J.S. Mankin, 2021: Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100351.
J. Hanrahan, J. Langlois, L. Cornell, H. Huang, J.M. Winter, P.J. Clemins, B. Beckage, and C.L. Bruyère, 2021: Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60, 935-949.
C. Lesk, E.D. Coffel, J.M. Winter, D. Ray, J. Zscheischler, S.I. Seneviratne, R.M. Horton, 2021: Stronger temperature–moisture couplings exacerbate the impact of climate warming on global crop yields, Nature Food, 2, 683-691.
M. Holthuijzen, B. Beckage, P.J. Clemins, D. Higdon, and J.M. Winter, 2021: Constructing high-resolution, bias-corrected climate products: a comparison of methods. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60, 455-475.
M.J. Webb, J.M. Winter, S.A. Spera, J.W. Chipman, and E.C. Osterberg, 2021: Water, agriculture, and climate dynamics in central Chile's Aconcagua River Basin. Physical Geography, 42, 395-415.
T.F. Partridge, J.M. Winter, A.D. Kendall, D.W. Hyndman, 2021: Cross-scale evaluation of dynamic crop growth in WRF and Noah-MP-Crop. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 296, 108217.