なりぽん＠厭離庵

Are Ichiro's Stats All Smoke and Mirrors?

Some time in the next few weeks, Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners will likely outrace a second baseman's throw or guide a low line drive into right field to collect his 200th hit of the season, making this the ninth consecutive year he has reached the milestone.

Mr. Suzuki already holds the record for most base hits in a single season (262) and is a hair behind the Cardinals' Albert Pujols for the highest career batting average among active players (.333).

But as prolific as he's been, Ichiro is a significantly less productive hitter than other players with similar batting averages. Of his 1,974 hits with Seattle, an astounding 81% have been singles, a higher proportion than any modern-era player with at least a .320 average. More remarkably, nearly one in four of his hits never left the infield. The problem: singles don't translate into runs as well as other kinds of hits. And when he's not hitting, he very rarely walks. Despite leading all batters in hits this season, Ichiro ranks No. 25 in on-base percentage and No. 39 in runs scored.

Thanks to a combination of formulas created by statisticians like Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer, it's possible to compute how many extra wins a hitter creates for his team per season. By that measure, Ichiro has averaged two "batting wins" a year during his career. Mr. Pujols, who leads the majors in on-base percentage, averages six.

We're not saying it's Ichiro's fault that the Mariners have lost more than 90 games in three of the last five full seasons. But maybe the wizard of the one-bagger isn't quite as valuable as he seems.

Ben Austen

現役選手の中では通算打率もプホルスに迫る。
但し、ヒットは量産しているがその生産性は低い。
1974本のヒットのうちなんと81％がシングルヒット、おまけに4本に1本は内野安打。
フォアボールを選ぶことも稀だ。
だから今シーズンも打率で首位争いにいながら、出塁率では25位、
得点でも39位だ。
打撃での勝利への貢献度を数値化する"batting wins"というのがあるが、
プホルスは1シーズンで６なのに対し、イチローは２に過ぎない。
マリナーズが過去5シーズンで3回も90敗以上しているが、
それがイチローのせいだという気はない。
ただ‘シングルヒットの魔法使い’はそれほど役立っていないのかもしれない。