Walk in the Spirit

一昨日の火曜日のNY DJは､331＄も上げた､

普段でもナカナカ見ない上げなんだが､
CNBCで面白い分析をしていた､

Bigpicture経由で､

Dow Jones 300+ Point Moves and Bear Markets
August 06, 2008 at 04:39 PM

Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg was on CNBC this morning arguing that yesterday's 300+ point move was simply a bear market rally, and that 300+ point moves usually occur during bear markets. 

He then went on to say that during the entire bull market from 2002-2007, there was not one single 300 point rally.  While 300 point rallies usually occur during bear markets, they have also occurred at the start of major rallies.  In fact, the Dow rallied 5.56%, 13.1% and 12.5% following the first three ever 300+ point moves in the Dow in '97 and '98.  They also occurred multiple times at both the July '02 and October '02 lows.  In fact, Rosenberg's argument that there were no 300+ point rallies during the last bull market was simply incorrect.  The Dow actually had two 300+ point days on 10/11/02 and 10/15/02, both of which came during the first week of the bull market.

メリルリンチのアナリスト､ローゼンバーグの解説を簡単に言うと､

『 DJが300以上上げるのは､ベアマーケットに限られる､ということ､
チャートでは 赤丸 で一日で300以上上げた期日をプロットしている､
一目瞭然だが､過去10年､ブルマーケットでは300以上上げたのはない､

素人目には､

300も上げると､もう相場は反転するんじゃないかと思うが､
さにあらず､典型的なベアの症状だそうで､
チャートの位置関係(高め)からしても､
これからが本格的なベアとなりそうな雰囲気､

以上､余計な情報で､