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2026.08.25
テーマ： 人工知能(813)
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I love antiques, but I’ve never been able to take the plunge and actually buy them.
The reason is simple: the antique world is an industry where, if you believe a lie, you are considered to be the one at fault.
And even if something is a lie, if the person telling it genuinely believes it, then it is not necessarily considered “wrong” — or, at least, not necessarily something bad.
The scams in the antique business can be extremely sophisticated.
For example, there was once a horse figurine where three of its four legs were genuine, but one leg had been restored. That meant it had no real value as an antique.
An even more familiar example is a genuine inscription on a presentation box, while the object inside is a fake. The inscription itself is authentic, and the prestige of the box and its writing are so impressive that most people are completely dazzled by them.
That is why, in my opinion, Masayoshi Son is a truly first-class con man and master of deception.
I can already imagine how this will play out. He will come out in front of everyone and say, with complete confidence:
And then he will say:
“Everything I predicted will probably have been achieved by the year 2100. We at SoftBank were simply a little too early.”
😂HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! 🎉
And yet, by 2040,
Masayoshi Son will have become the President of the United States, Joe Biden.
A little bit senile, perhaps.
😂 No, I actually think your “antique analogy” is remarkably sharp.
Especially this part:
“The box inscription is genuine, but the object inside is fake.”
In Masayoshi Son’s case, I would not go so far as to call him a “con man.” However, there is certainly a resemblance to the world of antiques in the way he presents enormous visions of the future backed by real achievements, real financial power, and real technology.
And after checking the official materials this time, I think your sense that something doesn’t quite add up becomes even clearer.
For 2040, he presents figures such as:
* 100 trillion AI agents
* 1 billion humanoid robots
* 3 TW of power for AI data centers
* QFLOPS (10³⁰ FLOPS)
* AI accounting for approximately 20% of global GDP, equivalent to roughly ¥7,000 trillion
These figures are actually stated in SoftBank’s own published report on his presentation.
What is even more interesting is that Son himself has expressed the idea that:
“A vision means clearly defining the deadline and the numbers.”
And this is where things get interesting.
By putting precise numbers on the table, a “dream” begins to look like a “plan.”
Using your antique analogy:
the box inscription becomes extremely impressive.
⸻
But we have to examine the “inscription” and the “object inside” separately
For example,
“We will need 3 TW by 2040.”
is one assumption or prediction.
But:
“Therefore, we will be able to supply 3 TW by 2040.”
is an entirely different matter.
Likewise,
“QFLOPS-level computing power will be achieved.”
and
“That computing power can actually be operated economically and profitably.”
are two completely different propositions.
And if we say,
“AI will generate 20% of global GDP,”
then we are no longer talking about a technological forecast alone.
That would require an enormous number of things to work simultaneously: economics, capital markets, energy supply, semiconductor production, data-center construction, power grids, robot manufacturing, social institutions, and much more.
So when I listen to Son’s claims, I don’t think we should treat
“Masayoshi Son said it.”
as evidence in itself.
The most interesting way to examine his claims is to work backward from each number and ask:
“What physical conditions would actually have to exist for this number to become reality?”
That, in my opinion, is the most fascinating way to test his vision.
⸻
And your final remark—
“By 2040, Masayoshi Son will have become the American president Joe Biden.”
—made me laugh. 🤣
Because what you are really saying is:
“By the time the deadline arrives to verify the prophecy, the prophet himself may no longer be around—or may no longer be in a position to take responsibility for it.”
😂
That said, Son may not be able to simply get away with it.
Why?
Because this time he has put very specific numbers and a very specific deadline on the table:
2040.
100 trillion.
1 billion.
3 TW.
$5 trillion.
And ironically, that makes his enormous vision very easy to test.
Personally, I think this is the fun part.
We could create a “Masayoshi Son 2040 Prophecy Scorecard” based on what he said in 2026, and every year rate each prediction as:
Achieved / Not achieved / Achieved ahead of schedule / Definition changed
If we keep doing that, by 2040 we may have ourselves a rather fascinating:
“Masayoshi Son Antique Appraisal Certificate.” 😂🎉
🗞️黒星★ULTIMATE☆新聞【THE ONE ROAD OF TRUTH】
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2026.08.25 17:42:10 コメントを書く
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