Walk in the Spirit

前回、 CDS、６２兆ドルへ で CDS の急成長を紹介した、

しかし CDS も大切だが、もう一度、原点に戻ろう、
CDS 市場を煽る背景は何か、何が本当のリスクなのか、

The Moral Hazard Club より、

In the table below, you can see that banks and brokers have been forced to write down over $231 billion since last summer.
（下記は昨夏からの貸倒れのサマリーで、計2310億ドル、 ただしココにはRBSの12bilが未計上なのでアシカラズ, ）

Further, banks and brokers are told to value their levered balance sheet in three distinct types: 

Level I: Mark to Market - readily observable market prices.
Level II: Assets that aren't actively traded, but have quoted market prices for similar instruments - otherwise known as ‘mark to model’.
Level III: Assets that have model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable-otherwise known as ‘mark to myth' or ‘mark to management's best guess,' ‘mark to a hope & a prayer,' etc...
（ レベル1 ：売買可、　 レベル2 ：売買できるかも、　 レベル3 ：神話的、または希望と祈りの資産と呼ばれる、）

When you add up all the Level II assets by just the eight largest holders in the U.S: JP Morgan (JPM), Citibank (C), Bank of America (BAC), Merrill Lynch (MER), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bear, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), it comes to a staggering $5 trillion - nearly half the size of the economy. Level III assets are nearly $600 billion .
(主要８行の レベル2 合計は5兆ドル、 レベル3 合計は0.6兆ドルだ）

Is the Fed big enough to bail out all these assets? My best guess is probably not, and more firms will fail. If the loans and economy both don't start performing, these failures will happen more quickly, which is why my firm continues to avoid credit risk. It's not hard to envision an acceleration of this process if the market starts to believe the special loan facilities and other funding processes artificially created to deal with this mess cease to work.
（FRBがこれを救済するのは不可だろう、現在抱えているローンや債券の価値が低下していることがさらに拍車をかける、そしてその価値の低下は急激な破綻リスクをもたらす、銀行がそしてFRBが各種TAFやTSLFなどの手段でこれを食い止めようとする理由がここにある、一触即発なのだ、しかしこのような延命手段ではリスクの低下は図れそうもない、）
（中略）

The Fed is slowly becoming the dumping ground for dealers and banks - members of the ‘Moral Hazard Club.' It's is running out of capital, and quickly.
（FRBのバランスシートを見ればわかるが、急ピッチでFRBの資産が崩されており、もはやFRBはモラルハザードクラブ会員である金融機関の廃棄物集積場と化している、）

The problem assets (at least the ones we know about) are way too large for the Fed to completely absorb. It's waiting and hoping the economy and credit markets stabilize before it runs out of ammunition.
（金融機関の不良資産はFRBが立ち向かえる相手ではない、 不良資産達（レベル２＆３） は期待を持って待っている、自分達が(世界中を破壊する)弾頭となる前に経済/信用市場（のモラル）が回復してくれることを、）