October 8, 2026 Insider Report

How a Fertilizer Shock Could Reshape Migration

Two shocks are hitting the world’s food system at once. The first is fertilizer. The Persian Gulf normally accounts for about 40 percent of globally traded urea exports , and after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed in late February, urea rose from around $400 to more than $850 a ton in April before easing to $453 in June. Relief may be temporary. The International Food Policy Research Institute warned in July that fertilizer markets would not normalize before the end of 2026 even if the conflict ended, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects scarcity to reduce yields and tighten food supplies in late 2026 and into 2027. 

The second shock is grain. Ukraine’s seaports carry more than 90 percent of its grain exports and have been unable to receive foreign vessels since late July. Ukrainian shipments in the first half of August ran about 76 percent below year-earlier levels. The Black Sea confrontation has become mutual economic warfare against the region’s agricultural logistics, with Ukraine now striking Russian terminals too.