When will winter weather arrive? November forecast has unusual answer
Widespread chilly weather still seems a long way away despite what the calendar says, as the nation is forecast to see one of the warmest Novembers on record, thanks mainly to the warming impacts of El Niño , forecasters said.
"The ongoing El Niño remains the dominant teleconnection to influence this forecast (for November)," said Johnna Infanti, a forecaster from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center , in an online report .
Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist from AccuWeather , told USA TODAY that "a very warm month is expected nationally. It will likely rank in the top 10 for warmest Novembers."
Where are above-average temperatures expected in November?
The temperature forecast map from the Climate Prediction Center (above) shows orange for nearly the entire nation, meaning above-average temperatures are likely practically coast-to-coast.
On the map, only the Southwest is not forecast to see above-normal temperatures. In the Southwest, there are "equal chances" of seeing warmer-than-average or cooler-than-average temperatures.
No part of the U.S. is forecast to see below-average temperatures this month.
Specifically, Merrill told USA TODAY that "Northern California into the Northwest into the northern portion of the Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the East will be warmer than the historical average for temperatures."
Which areas are forecast to see above-average precipitation in November?
According to the Climate Prediction Center map, the wettest parts of the nation in November will be the Southwest and the central and northern Plains.
The only states that should see a drier-than-average November are Michigan and Montana, the CPC map shows.
AccuWeather also said that Southern California coastal flooding remains a concern: Coastal flooding is expected to continue into November, with some of the highest coastal water levels of the season forecast to occur around Nov. 25, AccuWeather said.
In an aerial view, Pacific Ocean waves wash into damaged homes amid high surf generated by Tropical Storm Rachel on October 11, 2026 in Long Beach, California. California was under its second-ever tropical storm watch, with coastal flood warnings in effect from Los Angeles to San Diego. An emerging El Niño and oceanic Kelvin wave moving up the coastline have compounded conditions in the region. (Mario Tama, Getty Images)
Are there any major storms in the forecast?
"Our long-range team expects at least one sizable storm to bring copious snow to the Mountain West and heavy rain that will trigger some flooding to the West, particularly California, the Great Basin and Southwest," Merrill said.
In the East, Merrill said there will likely be a storm closer to Thanksgiving week that brings heavy rain to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.
Thanksgiving weekend could bring a taste of winter, AccuWeather said. Colder air could bring flurries or snow to parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast.
What's causing this mild pattern across much of the nation?
"A highly energized Pacific jet stream triggered by both the strong El Niño and marine heat waves in the Pacific are flooding much of the U.S. with warmer-than-average temperatures in November," Merrill told USA TODAY.
Looking ahead to December and beyond, the warmth is expected to continue, as El Niño tends to make winters warmer in the U.S., especially across the northern half of the nation. This is due to unusually warm water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which shifts the jet stream and makes extended invasions of cold, Arctic air less likely to occur.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When will winter weather arrive? November forecast has unusual answer
