Bill Gates Says 'None of the Things That Human Labor Provides Will Be Necessary' — Robots Will Build Houses, Grow Food, Do Surgery If We Don't Slow Down
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A job used to be the one thing a machine couldn't take away entirely. Microsoft Corporationco-founder Bill Gatesis warning AI-powered robots could change that, building houses, growing food and performing surgery so cheaply and efficiently that human labor may no longer be necessary for most goods and services.
Gates made the prediction last week during an interview with The Verge's "Decoder" podcast, describing a future that could arrive within roughly 20 years if AI development isn't significantly slowed.
"But on that order of magnitude, yes, if we don't choose to massively slow down or stop, then we will have robots that can build houses, grow food, do surgery," Gates told host Nilay Patel.
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He continued, "and none of the things that human labor provides to the economy will be necessary for most goods and services."
The prospect could bring cheaper goods, better medical care and fewer shortages. But Gates warned that getting there could be painful, particularly for workers whose skills become less scarce as AI systems perform the work more cheaply and accurately.
AI Could Make Human Skills Less Valuable
The disruption is already approaching white-collar work. Gates said AI could perform tasks such as telesales, customer support and accounting "radically cheaper, radically faster, and even more accurately."
"As the AI achieves superhuman intelligence, the scarcity of white-collar skills goes away," Gates said.
Humanoid robots could eventually extend the same pressure to physical jobs, including construction and farming. Gates pointed to the growing investment in robotics, particularly in China, as evidence that machines capable of performing physical labor at low cost are a serious possibility.
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The Next 20 Years Could Create Winners And Losers
Gates isn't predicting that automation will bring only bad outcomes. If robots can build homes more cheaply and AI can help develop treatments for diseases, the technology could improve living standards and expand access to essential services.
The problem is how those benefits will be distributed while existing jobs disappear or change.
"My big concern is this 20-year transition period where they'll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption, and we have to get through that in order to get to that period of abundance," Gates told Patel.
Jobs provide more than a paycheck. They also offer purpose, structure and relationships with colleagues. If machines take over a growing share of intellectual and physical work, society will face difficult questions about employment, income and how people find meaning.
Gates believes AI could ultimately help solve some of humanity's biggest problems, including disease and shortages of essential goods. But he has warned that governments and industry aren't responding quickly enough to the risks.
The challenge, he said, is managing the transition so that the technology's benefits don't arrive too slowly while the economic disruption hits workers first.
Photo by Shutterstock
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