Map shows national parks that could be severely impacted by super El Niño
A potentially historic Super El Niño could dramatically alter conditions in some of America's most visited national parks , reshaping everything from waterfalls and snowpack to flooding and visitor experiences.
Forecasters say there is a high probability that the developing El Niño strengthens into a "very strong" event this fall and winter, a category sometimes informally referred to as a super El Niño. Strong El Niño events can shift storm tracks across North America, bringing wetter conditions to parts of the South and Southwest while leaving some northern regions warmer than normal.
While the exact impacts will vary by location, the nation's most iconic parks could undergo some of the biggest transformations.
What Is Super El Niño?
A super El Niño is an unofficial term for a very strong El Niño event, when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise more than about 2 degrees Celsius above average, significantly altering weather patterns around the world. These rare events can amplify impacts such as flooding, drought, extreme heat, and changes in storm tracks across the United States and beyond.
List of National Parks That Could Be Impacted By Super El Niño
While a potential super El Niño could create challenges for travelers, not all of its impacts on America's national parks would be negative. In some locations, increased rainfall and snowfall could revive drought-stricken landscapes, boost waterfalls in parks such as Yosemite and provide excellent snow conditions in parts of the Rockies. However, the same weather pattern could also bring significant hazards, including flooding, landslides, debris flows, road closures and dangerous trail conditions, particularly across the Southwest and California.
As a result, a super El Niño could make certain parks more spectacular to visit while at the same time creating safety concerns and travel disruptions that visitors would need to monitor closely.
Yosemite National Park
Yosemite in California's Sierra Nevada could see one of the most noticeable changes.
The Sierra Nevada often benefits from stronger El Niño winters, with storms delivering significant precipitation to California. AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok told Newsweek that California's mountains can become a target for repeated storm systems during traditional El Niño patterns, particularly as winter progresses.
That could mean both good and bad news for park goers. For late wintertime visitors, Pastelok urged caution, as strong atmospheric rivers could bring heavy rain or snowfall to California's national parks. While this moisture has a benefit to spring and summer travelers–picturesque rivers, great fishing opportunities, and pleasant camping—Pastelok warned that flooding and mudslides could pose hazards for travelers in the colder season.
"Be very cautious about planning any late-season or cold-season trips," he told Newsweek . "It could be dangerous depending on the storm systems that come in."
A stock image of Yosemite National Park in wintertime. Heavy snow could occur in Yosemite during the winter months, with pleasant spring and summer conditions to follow.
Sequoia National Park
The giant sequoias of California's southern Sierra Nevada could experience a mixed blessing.
A wetter-than-average winter would provide much-needed moisture to forests and reservoirs, potentially easing stress on ecosystems that have endured years of drought and extreme heat. Scientists say stronger El Niño events tend to tilt the odds toward wetter conditions across much of California.
Yet abundant rain can create downstream challenges. Increased runoff, saturated soils and winter storms can damage roads and infrastructure. In the longer term, experts have warned that especially wet winters can encourage vegetation growth that later dries out and becomes wildfire fuel if dry conditions return.
However, Pastelok said "positive returns" could be expected in Sequoia National Park similar to Yosemite, come next spring and summer.
Rocky Mountain National Park
Colorado sits near the edge of traditional El Niño influence, making the outcome less certain than in California.
Pastelok told Newsweek that the central Rockies can sometimes find themselves directly in the path of winter storms during El Niño years, while in other cases they miss out on the most active storm tracks. This season, however, he expects a "decent amount of snow" across parts of the Rockies.
For Rocky Mountain National Park, that could translate to deeper snow cover, picturesque alpine scenery and improved spring water supplies. Visitors may also face more winter travel disruptions and temporary road closures if snowfall exceeds seasonal averages.
However, the eastern Rockies might see dry spells this winter, Pastelok said.
Everglades National Park
South Florida may experience a very different set of impacts.
El Niño winters often bring increased moisture and a greater risk of severe weather across parts of Florida. Pastelok said northern portions of the state and parts of the Southeast could face stronger storms and tornado threats during the cooler months.
The Everglades could benefit from higher water levels and healthier wetlands, but prolonged wet periods may also complicate recreation and wildlife viewing. Visitors could encounter more frequent rain events and changing water conditions across the vast ecosystem.
Since Atlantic waters remain warm around the Florida peninsula, Pastelok said that could contribute to higher rainfall rates, which carries a higher risk of flooding.
Yellowstone National Park
Yellowstone may find itself on the dividing line between competing weather patterns.
Many strong El Niño events favor warmer-than-average conditions across portions of the northern United States during winter. That could influence snowfall totals and the timing of snowmelt throughout the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.
Even small shifts in snowpack can affect wildlife movements, river flows and access to some of the park's most popular attractions. A warmer winter could also alter the appearance of Yellowstone's iconic geothermal landscapes, which often look dramatically different under deep snow.
Glacier National Park
Glacier National Park may undergo some of the most visible changes if warmer conditions accompany a strong El Niño.
Forecasts suggest portions of the northern tier of the United States could experience milder winter temperatures than usual. While snowfall can still occur, warmer conditions may limit snow accumulation at lower elevations and accelerate melting.
For a park already grappling with shrinking glaciers and climate-driven changes, a warm El Niño winter could further highlight the transformation underway across the landscape. Visitors may encounter changing snow conditions, altered hiking seasons and different wildlife patterns.
"Typically, a lot of the interior west, especially the northern areas, they don't get as good of snowfall [during El Niño winters]," Pastelok said. "I think they're going to be a little bit in trouble next year, with lower rivers and rapids."
Recreation at Glacier and Yellowstone could be impacted because of that, Pastelok said.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, occurring when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler than average and trade winds strengthen. This climate pattern can shift weather around the globe, often bringing cooler, wetter conditions to some regions and hotter, drier conditions to others.
What Happens Next
Scientists stress that no two El Niño events are identical, and park-level impacts will depend on how the pattern evolves through fall and winter. Still, a very strong El Niño has the potential to reshape landscapes across the country, from snow-covered peaks in the Rockies and Sierra Nevada to the wetlands of South Florida.
For travelers, the result could be a year when America's most famous national parks look noticeably different from what visitors have come to expect.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas
Related Articles
