2026 Oscars Predictions in Every Category
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars , Emmys , Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Final Oscars Commentary All Categories (Updated: March 9, 2026):Joaquin Phoenix quoted his late brother, River, during his best actor speech for “Joker,” saying: “Run to the rescue with love, and peace will follow.” That sentiment captures the spirit of so many of this season’s Oscar contenders.
It was a year defined by blockbusters and indies, sins and grief, and other themes expressed in the universal language of cinema.
In just a few days, we’ll witness the ultimate showdown in one of the most competitive Oscar landscapes in recent memory: Paul Thomas Anderson’s political action epic “One Battle After Another” versus Ryan Coogler’s record-setting vampire drama “Sinners.”
“One Battle After Another” has nabbed just about everything required to be declared an undisputed frontrunner. No film in history that has won at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA and WGA — along with at least one SAG prize — has ever lost best picture. However, “Sinners” holds the ACE, SAG ensemble and WGA, and no film has lost with that powerful combination.
One way or another, records will fall on Oscar night. A victory for “Sinners” would bring a Black woman a first-ever best picture win and, potentially, a directing prize for Coogler himself.
In the acting categories, only one outcome feels certain: Jessie Buckley, as a grieving mother in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” is destined to hear her name called for best actress. The other three races remain wide open.
Timothée Chalamet began the season as the frontrunner for his starring turn as table tennis protégé Marty Mauser in “Marty Supreme,” taking home the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award. But after missing out at BAFTA and SAG — the latter went to Michael B. Jordan — and with voters telling Variety, “He’ll get one when he’s older,” the 30-year-old may have to wait a bit longer. The beneficiary of that shift in voter sentiment appears to be Jordan, who could bring his co-star Delroy Lindo along in supporting actor. In that category, Lindo may edge out Sean Penn’s racist Col. Lockjaw from “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård from “Sentimental Value.”
With a clutch BAFTA win, Wunmi Mosaku has emerged as a viable contender for supporting actress for her turn in “Sinners.” But Teyana Taylor is close on her heels for “One Battle After Another,” and a groundswell of industry support has also kept Amy Madigan in the conversation for the horror film “Weapons.”
We venture forth into what promises to be an unpredictable and undeniably exciting 98th Academy Awards ceremony. Here are Variety’s final Oscar predictions.
Projected winner leaders (films): “Sinners” (7), “Frankenstein” and “One Battle After Another” (3); “KPop Demon Hunters” (2)
Projected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (11); Netflix (6); Apple Original Films, Neon and 20th Century Studios (1)
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
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= PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“ Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen
“ F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson
“ The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Emilie Lesclaux
“ Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler
“ Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler
Will Win: “Sinners”
Could Win: “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: “The Secret Agent”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Josh Safdie
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Will Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Should Have Been Nominated: Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Could Win: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Should Win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Should Have Been Nominated: Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Could Win: Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Should Have Been Nominated: Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Will Win: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Could Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Should Have Been Nominated: Miles Caton, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Will Win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Should Win: Wunmi Mosaku
Should Have Been Nominated: Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Casting
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“ The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Gabriel Domingues
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler
Will Win: “Sinners”
Could Win: “The Secret Agent”
Should Win: “Sinners”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
“ Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Written by Robert Kaplow
“ It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
“ Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Ryan Coogler
Will Win: “Sinners”
Could Win: “Sentimental Value”
Should Win: “Sinners”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
“ Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Will Tracy
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
“ Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: “Train Dreams”
Should Win: “Hamnet”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Chronology of Water” (The Forge) — Kristen Stewart
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
“ Arco” (Neon)
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
“ Elio” (Pixar)
Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
“ KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
“ Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
“ Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
Will Win: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Could Win: “Zootopia 2”
Should Win: “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
Should Have Been Nominated: “In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Production Design
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Hannah Bleachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Hamnet”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematography
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Darius Khondji
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Michael Bauman
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“ Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Train Dreams”
Should Have Been Nominated: “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Costume Design
“ Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Deborah L. Scott
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Kate Hawley
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Miyako Bellizzi
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Frankenstein”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Film Editing
“ F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Stephen Mirrione
“ Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“ Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Olivier Bugge Coutté
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Sinners”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Makeup and Hairstyling
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“ Kokuho” (GKids)
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“ The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“ The Ugly Stepsister” (Independent Film Company/Shudder)
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “The Ugly Stepsister”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Sound
“ F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“ Sirât” (Neon)
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Will Win: “F1”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Sirāt”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Plague” (IFC)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Visual Effects
“ Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“ F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“ Jurassic World: Rebirth” (Universal Pictures)
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“ The Lost Bus” (Apple Original Films)
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Will Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Could Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “F1”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Superman” (DC Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Score
“ Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“ Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“ Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“ One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“ Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson
Will Win: “Sinners”
Could Win: “Hamnet”
Should Win: “Sinners”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios) — Michael Giacchino
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
“Dear Me” from “ Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “ KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied To You” from “ Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “ Viva Verdi!” (Self-Distributed)
Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “ Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
Will Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Could Win: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
Should Win: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Hunger and Thirst” from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) by Daniel Blumberg
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Feature
“ The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
“ Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
“ Cutting Through Rocks” (Self-Distributed)
Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
“ Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (Kino Lorber) ***
Helle Faber, Alzbeta Karaskova, Pavel Talankin and David Borenstein
“ The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Will Win: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
Could Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Should Win: “Come See Me in the Good Light”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The New Yorker at 100” (Netflix) — Marshall Curry, Elizabeth Martin, Xan Parker
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
International Feature
“ It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“ The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“ Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“ Sirât” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“ The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
Will Win: “Sentimental Value”
Could Win: “The Secret Agent”
Should Win: “The Secret Agent”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The President’s Cake” from Iraq
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Short
“ Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions)
Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
“ Forevergreen” (Self-Distributed)
Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
“ The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada)
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“ Retirement Plan” (The New Yorker) ***
John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
“ The Three Sisters” (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures)
Konstantin Bronzit
Will Win: “Retirement Plan”
Could Win: “Butterfly”
Should Win: “Forevergreen”
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Short
“ All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) ***
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
“ Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films)
Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
“ Children No More: Were and Are Gone” (Sky)
Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
“ The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)
Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
“ Perfectly a Strangeness” (Second Sight Pictures)
Alison McAlpine
Will Win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Could Win: “The Devil is Busy”
Should Win: “The Devil is Busy”
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Live Action Short
“ Butcher’s Stain” (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television)
Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
“ A Friend of Dorothy” (Self-Distributed)
Lee Knight and James Dean
“ Jane Austen’s Period Drama” (Self-Distributed)
Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
“ The Singers” (Netflix)
Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
“ Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) ***
Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Will Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Could Win: “The Singers”
Should Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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