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Gold Derby

It’s ‘Beef’ vs. ‘DTF St. Louis’ in the Emmy writing race that could determine Best Limited Series

Christopher Tsang
6 min read

One of the most intriguing subplots of the 2026 Emmy Awards is Beef vs. DTF St. Louis in the various limited series categories. Each show is favored over the other in a handful of races. Yesterday, we broke down the directing race , where DTF St. Louis has the edge. Today, we're digging into Best Limited Series/Movie Writing, which flips the script.

Unlike directing, no show had multiple nominees, so there might be a clearer link between the winner here and the ultimate winner for Best Limited Series. The category includes two full limited series (i.e., every episode had the same writer), two premiere episodes, and one finale. All of them center around death and crime, making for an intensely entertaining and suspenseful category.

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Here's our full breakdown of the writing category — which will be presented at this weekend's Creative Arts Emmy Awards — listed in order of Gold Derby's odds.  

Lee Sung Jin for Beef

Lee Sung Jin at Netflix's

Lee Sung Jin for 'Beef'

Episode:"All the Things We're Never Going to Have"
Synopsis:A violent argument between one couple is witnessed by another, leading to blackmail and threats.
Emmy history:Lee Sung Jin has three nominations this year for directing, writing, and producing Beef Season 2. He won all three for the first season in 2023, and scored an additional nomination for producing Silicon Valley in 2015.

The Season 2 premiere kicks into high gear when a younger couple witnesses a heated argument that spirals into unpredictable mania. The fight between Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan's characters is arguably the biggest showcase in the episode, balancing tone by shifting from darkly humorous to extremely violent to sadly revealing. The premiere also introduces the other main characters, including the rival couple portrayed by Charles Melton and Cailee Spaeny who try to exploit the conflict, while also dealing with their own personal problems. Both couples interact with each other, and their subtle dialogue sets the stage for the danger that is yet to come.

Steven Conrad for DTF St. Louis

Steven Conrad, Jason Bateman, and David Harbour for 'DTF St. Louis'

Steven Conrad, Jason Bateman, and David Harbour

Synopsis: A love triangle leads to an unexpected death and a police investigation.
Emmy history:Conrad has three nominations this year for directing, writing, and producing DTF St. Louis .

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DTF St. Louis ' greatest strength in the category is its nonlinear storytelling. Across seven episodes, the series revisits pivotal scenes from multiple perspectives, gradually revealing character traits and major surprises. It deftly balances satire, melancholy and mystery while exploring sexual frustration and relationship drama, weaving humor and tragedy through its investigation scenes, weather broadcasts and intimate character studies.

Gabe Rotter and Daniel Pearle for The Beast in Me

Gabe Rotter, Daniel Pearle and Antonio Campos at Netflix's

Gabe Rotter, Daniel Pearle, and Antonio Campos

Episode:"Sick Puppy"
Synopsis:Agatha Wiggs struggles to write her next book while dealing with psychological trauma and meets a new enigmatic neighbor with a mysterious history.
Emmy history:Both writers are also nominated as producers of The Beast in Me .

The Beast in Me  pilot thrives on ambiguity, establishing the charged dynamic between Claire Danes' grieving novelist Agatha Wiggs and Matthew Rhys' enigmatic Nile Jarvis. Still traumatized by the death of her child and creatively adrift, Agatha confides her darkest, most conflicted thoughts to Nile — a man with a troubling past who nevertheless presents as charismatic and disarmingly reasonable. Their lunch conversation is the episode's most revealing sequence, as two formidable personalities cautiously assess one another before the story culminates in a chilling disappearance.

Mike Makowsky for Death by Lightning

Mike Makowsky at The 2026 Gotham Television Awards on June 01, 2026 in New York, New York.

Mike Makowsky

Synopsis:The four-episode series depicts the tumultuous relationship between the 20th president of the United States, James A. Garfield, and Charles J. Guiteau, culminating in the former's assassination.
Emmy history:This is Makowsky's second Emmy nomination. He won in 2020 as a producer for the television movie Bad Education .

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Death by Lightning  is the second limited series in the category recognized in its entirety. Though framed as a historical drama, it finds abundant comedy in its larger-than-life figures, from slaps and breakdowns to an unforgettable toilet-side vomiting scene. Against high-stakes political conflict and stirring speeches on civil rights and corruption, Michael Shannon's President James A. Garfield and Matthew Macfadyen's Charles J. Guiteau anchor the story, while Betty Gilpin, Shea Whigham, and Emmy nominee Nick Offerman bring humor and dimension through their own distinct arcs. The series' sharp one-liners never diminish the tragedy at its center.

Megan Gallagher for All Her Fault

Megan Gallagher at the 83rd Annual Golden Globes held at The Beverly Hilton on January 11, 2026 in Beverly Hills, California.

Megan Gallagher

Episode:"Episode 8"
Synopsis:All is revealed behind the vanishing of Marissa's son, revealing many twists and resulting in three deaths.
Emmy history:Gallagher is nominated twice this year for directing and producing All Her Fault .

All Her Fault  represents the category's only season finale and perhaps its most unrelenting nominee. It opens with two fatal shootings, uncovers the truth behind the disappearance of Marissa Irvine's (Sarah Snook) son through flashbacks set six years earlier, and delivers one final twist. The episode continually upends expectations with escalating revelations and soap-operatic chaos, sustaining a sense of psychological dread before concluding on a quieter note of potential justice and peace.

Creative Arts Emmy Awards 2026

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Drama Guest Actress Drama Guest Actor Comedy Guest Actress Comedy Guest Actor Limited/Movie Supporting Actress Limited/Movie Supporting Actor Limited/Movie Directing Limited/Movie Writing Movie Reality Host Game Show Host Game Show Variety Special Live Variety Special Recorded Variety Series Directing Variety Series Writing Variety Special Directing Variety Special Writing Animated Program Voice-Over Performance Narrator Structured Reality Program Unstructured Reality Program Documentary Series Documentary Special Documentary Filmmaking Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special Main Title Design Main Title Theme Music Music for Series Music for Limited Series Music and Lyrics Music Supervision Music Direction Drama Casting Comedy Casting Movie/Limited Casting

Contender

Odds

1.

Beef

Beef

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47.4%

2.

DTF St Louis

DTF St. Louis

42.1%

3.

The Beast in Me

The Beast in Me

10.5%

4.

Death by Lightning

Death by Lightning

--

5.

All Her Fault
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All Her Fault

--

See All Predictions

Having only one nominee from each show makes a huge difference, exemplified by the current experts' odds at Gold Derby . Beef and DTF St. Louis are currently neck and neck, with the former at 50% and the latter at 44%. The Beast in Me is on the board with a 6% chance of victory. This could end up being the deciding factor for the top program race.

The 2026 Creative Arts Emmys for scripted programming will take place Sept. 6.

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