The 3 big numbers to care about in the new Boston mayoral poll — and one bonus
At first glance, the latest Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll is nothing but blue skies for Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.
Consider these numbers alone:
The Democratic incumbent holds a solid 59%-29% lead over her main challenger, philanthropist Josh Kraft, with just about a month to go before September's preliminary election.
It was the third such poll to show Wu with a commanding lead. The Democratic incumbent held a 43%-29% lead in an Emerson College poll in February . And Wu led Kraft 53%-21% in an April canvass by Saint Anselm College.
Voters gave Wu overwhelmingly high marks for her job performance in the new Suffolk poll, with nearly two-thirds of respondents (64.6%) saying they either strongly or somewhat approve of Wu's job performance as she runs for another term in City Hall.
And even if Wu isn't publicly saying anything, city voters clearly see their mayor with a national profile tipped for greater things, with 47% saying they'd vote for her if she ran for governor or U.S. Senate somewhere down the road.
All those numbers are a problem for Kraft, a political newcomer who's never run for office before.
The son of billionaire New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft is undoubtedly well-connected — witness the deep-pocketed super PAC that's been blitzing the airwaves, your devices and Interstate 93 at rush hour, with anti-Wu attack advertisements.
A panel truck, paid for by the pro-Josh Kraft super PAC 'Your City, Your Future' spreads the word during a rush hour traffic jam on Interstate 93, heading toward the Tip O'Neill Tunnel on Thursday, July 17, 2025.John L. Micek/MassLive
A pro-Wu super PAC also has been spending heavily on the Democratic incumbent's behalf, according to a MassLive analysis of campaign filings.
The politics of it all
Still, that initial batch of poll numbers is a vivid reminder that the biggest challenge facing any candidate looking to bump off a popular incumbent is that they need to provide a compelling "why."
That's particularly true in a city that hasn't sent an incumbent mayor packing since 1949. And that mayor had to be the notorious James Michael Curley .
Six months into his first campaign, and with the polls consistently favoring Wu, there are strong indications that Kraft's message or his candidacy has yet to penetrate the voting public's consciousness.
In a statement, Kraft's camp shrugged off the polling, arguing that the numbers would move in his direction the more that voters get to know him.
"Josh didn't get into the mayor's race because of what polling says, and nothing has changed his focus on continuing to show up in Boston neighborhoods, talk to residents and listen to the concerns of many people who are disappointed with this mayor and the direction the city is going," the campaign said, adding that the "only numbers that count in the end are votes."
That begs the question of what Kraft and his deep-pocketed allies have been doing since he jumped into the race on a cold day in February.
But it's also the middle of July, and voters traditionally are not the most plugged in at this time of the year.
So there's that.
The 3 big numbers to watch
A deeper dive into the poll suggests that there is territory that can actively be contested if Kraft can effectively seize the moment — and if a crack appears in Wu's machine-like campaign.
The first one is public education. There are few issues where voters feel as deeply passionate or are more opinionated about than their local schools.
A clear majority of respondents (56%) gave a thumbs-down to the Boston Public Schools, compared to the 29% of those polled who rated them as excellent or good. Just 11% were undecided.
Kraft's education platform calls for opening up more seats in the city's competitive exam schools, a switch to a hybrid-elected and appointed school committee, and bringing back a "parents' office" in City Hall.
More than half of the respondents to the Suffolk poll (51.8%) said they favored that hybrid school committee model. And city voters overwhelmingly supported an elected panel in 2021 .
Then there's housing, perhaps the most vexing and pressing public policy challenge facing elected officials from Beacon Hill on down.
More than a quarter of respondent (26%) said housing was their top issue this campaign season. Respondents said, 52% to 45%, that they find the city mostly affordable.
Even still, two-thirds of respondents said they favored some kind of rent control, while 28% apiece said the city should ease zoning rules and use public money to encourage housing construction.
Wu and Kraft butted heads last week over the high price of housing in the city during a candidates' forum hosted by the Massachusetts Affordable Homeownership Alliance , MassLive previously reported .
The two candidates shared their respective visions and plans to reduce housing costs. Both candidates agreed that housing is too expensive in the city, but they disagreed on the most effective ways to tackle the problem .
With ICE agents in the streets, the broader nationwide debate over immigration also remains an area of deep voter interest.
Wu staked out her ground early on, making nationwide headlines in March with an impassioned defense of the city's policies before a U.S. House panel.
Nearly 8 in 10 respondents said they support the city's decade-old Trust Act, which limits law enforcement's cooperation with federal immigration authorities. And more than two-thirds of respondents (66%) said the city's police force "generally do a good job and treat people of different races fairly, even if there are a few bad apples" in the ranks.
The two candidates have staked out similar ground, with Kraft saying he was onside with Wu's approach. And that's made it harder for him to differentiate himself on a key issue.
"The fact that, in a high-stakes environment, Michelle Wu stood up for Boston and stood up to Trump-supporting members of Congress and did well is a huge advantage for her," Democratic consultant Mary Anne Marsh told MassLive earlier this year.
The lightning round
A batch of smaller questions in the poll also shines a pretty significant light on city voters' mood this campaign season.
And they all go back to that key argument for any challenger looking to unseat an incumbent: A compelling "why."
More than half of all respondents (52%) said they disagreed with the contention that Wu "speaks well, but is not a good manager of day-to-day city services." And 60% said they agreed that while Wu has had her challenges, Kraft was not the answer.
And while the city's business community's disenchantment with Wu is well documented , voters aren't buying the arguments of a constituency they believe mostly lives outside the city limits: Nearly six in 10 (59%) said they didn't think Wu was hostile to the business community.
The polls open at 7 a.m. on Sept. 9 for this year's preliminary election. The meter is running for Kraft to make those closing arguments.
Read more analysis from John L. Micek
Read the original article on MassLive .
