Democrats see bright spot in economy ahead of midterms

Voters are starting to trust Democrats more on the economy, offering a potential opening for the party to regain ground on kitchen-table issues ahead of November’s midterms.

For the first time since 2010, Americans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans — 52 percent to 48 percent — to handle the economy, according to the  latest Fox News poll .

The last time Democrats held the upper hand on the economy was in May 2010, when 44 percent of surveyed voters said they trusted Democrats and 41 percent favored Republicans, ending an 8-year stretch in which voters preferred Democrats on the issue.

Democrats and strategists say the shift in polling comes after months of disciplined messaging on cost-of-living issues and against an economic backdrop that they hope could open a path to retaking the majority in both chambers of Congress come November.

Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said the latest polling is “telling,” noting it corresponds with a decline in consumer sentiment and President Trump’s falling approval rating on his handling of the economy.

“President Trump was elected in part because people thought he was a good steward of the economy when he was president the first time,” Skelley told The Hill.

“The fact that now he is scoring so poorly, and you have a finding like this — where the Republican advantage on the issue of the economy has shrunk to potentially nothing, at least in the Fox News data — is, I think, problematic for making an argument for why people shouldn’t be considering change” by backing Democrats, he added.

Republicans hold the majority in the Senate, with 53 seats to Democrats’ 47 seats. Democrats would need to keep those seats and flip four GOP seats in November to win control of the upper chamber.

Skelley said he is skeptical Democrats can overcome the unfavorable map to win the Senate but added, “if trends continue somewhat like they are, or things get worse for the GOP, then certainly Democrats could definitely win the Senate.”

“I still think the GOP is marginally favored,” Skelley said. “But we’re here, talking about the Senate, which is probably a bad sign for Republicans regarding the electoral environment.”

“If you look at the map and think about the recent election results, there’s really no reason why it should be [competitive] without an environment that is becoming very favorable for Democrats, basically,” he added about the Senate majority.

Democrats, for months, have pushed a disciplined message on cost-of-living issues, including healthcare, which some say has helped produce a more favorable map for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms.

In January, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)  released a memo highlighting research that showed the party’s “focus on lowering costs for American families” has coincided with data suggesting Democrats were gaining trust with voters on issues including cost of living, inflation and the economy.

The memo also suggested Democrats’ messaging on healthcare during the lengthy government shutdown in the fall “has resulted in the issue increasing in importance for voters, while trust in Democrats on the issue strengthens.”

“Democrats are focused on lowering costs, and in November, Republicans will pay a price at the ballot box for their toxic cost-raising agenda and the economic harm they have caused,” Joe Bush, the DSCC’s national press secretary, said in a statement to The Hill.

Kendall Witmer, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement that “Democrats are meeting voters where they’re at and are focusing on the issues that matter most to them, like lower costs, affordable healthcare, and accessible housing.”

The Republican National Committee National Press Secretary Kiersten Pels told The Hill that “when it comes to the economy, voters trust what they see in their paychecks, not headlines.”

Still, Democratic political strategist Antjuan Seawright said the party’s consistent focus on the affordability crisis has yielded results in off-year elections — including in races involving New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D), Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) and New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) — because the issue transcends ideological divides of the party.

He said he credits those Democrats, along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and others, with “staying anchor-focused and disciplined on the affordability crisis that’s been brought to you and sponsored by your neighborhood Republican Party, with Donald Trump leading the effort.”

“That is the reason we’ve seen success down the ballot. And you can’t debate facts when it comes to the affordability crisis,” he continued. “No matter where you fall on the economic spectrum … everyone’s feeling the brunt of this affordability crisis.”

“And I think largely what we see in the polling of how people view this is because we’ve been able to stay message-disciplined and focused on that, and we cannot lose that focus,” Seawright added.

In Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) historically divided House, Democrats need just three seats to win back the majority, and the  Cook Political Report shows Democrats  with the upper hand in key battleground districts.

Voters in the 36 districts deemed the most competitive said in a new poll that they would prefer the average Democrat to the average Republican to represent them in Congress, a result that the nonpartisan analysis called a “flashing red warning light for the fall” for Republican candidates in competitive districts.

“If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands,” the outlet’s Amy Walter and Carrie Dann wrote in their analysis.

The same poll showed Democrats leading on key issues, including the economy, but only by single digits, even as Trump’s numbers were underwater by at least 24 points.

The pollsters suggested that could be a bad sign for Democrats, writing, “a lot of folks who don’t like how Trump is handling the economy aren’t ready to say that Democrats would do a better job.”

Greg Strimple, a GOP pollster with GS Strategy Group, which helped conduct the survey, said the poll shows Republicans “have the opportunity to battle the Democrats to parity on the top issue – Americans’ cost of living.”

“Despite the Democrats’ early advantage on the generic ballot, their party and leadership remain deeply unpopular,” Strimple said. “The Republican path to keeping the majority requires making this election a choice, not a referendum on President Trump.”

Updated at 5:05 p.m. EDT

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