Will Dems win the House in November? Analysis shows a strong chance.

WASHINGTON – Democrats' odds of winning back the House of Representatives this year just got better.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 18 midterm races in a direction more favorable to them. In an analysis published Jan. 15, eight elections moved from "Likely Democrat" to "Solid Democrat" outlooks, while seven others moved into "Toss Up" or "Lean Democrat" territory. Three others shifted from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."

Among the areas now being characterized as toss-ups are Iowa's third congressional district and New York's 17th, both of which currently have Republican representatives. Ohio's ninth district and Texas' 34th, which have Democrats representing them but were initially leaning toward the GOP, also moved to toss-up range.

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President Donald Trump 's approval ratings and Democrats' overperformance during recent special elections are both indicators working in the party's favor, according to Cook analyst Erin Covey.

"House Democrats only need to flip three seats to win a majority," wrote Covey. "Even if Democrats lose some of their own members defending particularly difficult seats, the number of Republicans in peril should give Democrats more than enough opportunities to win 218 seats."

A series of unexpected vacancies has already posed issues for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson . He's contending with a mere two-vote margin, which includes a Kentucky GOP congressman who often votes against measures favored by President Trump. A special election later this spring will fill another Democratic seat, shrinking the GOP majority to just one vote.

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Republicans' midcycle redistricting push also hasn't materialized in the way the White House had hoped, though it still could ultimately help the GOP. California voters approved their own gerrymandering proposal last November to increase the number of Democratic seats in Washington. On Jan. 14, a federal appeals court dismissed claims by the Trump administration and the  California GOP that the new maps favored Latino voters and other groups.

Despite the political winds working against them, Johnson is confident about his midterm chances, saying Republicans are "beating the Democrats in fundraising."

"We are very bullish about the midterms," the speaker said recently. "I'm absolutely convinced we're going to grow the majority."

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will the Dems win the House in 2026? What analysis shows.