Democrat win in Trump's 'backyard' another sign of midterm momentum

Democrats notched a symbolic win in the Florida House district covering President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, taking their fight against the president's policies to his doorstep with another victory that shows the party is running strong in red areas and has momentum heading into the midterms.

The March 24 special election victory in a district that Trump carried by 11 percentage points is the latest sign that a blue wave could be building as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress from the GOP in November and put a check on Trump's presidency. Democrats have struggled in Florida in recent years, but the state recently elected Democratic mayors in Miami and Boca Raton for the first time in decades.

Delivering a rebuke to Trump in his hometown of Palm Beach, a place that holds special significance as the center of the GOP universe, was particularly notable, though. The Democratic candidate in Florida House District 87 won by 2.4 percentage points after the previous GOP officeholder won the district by 19 points in 2024.

"If Democrats can win in Trump’s backyard, we sure as hell can win anywhere across the country. Onward to November!" Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said on social media. The Democrat also is leading in a March 24 special election for a Tampa-area state Senate seat that Trump carried by 7 percentage points, with The Associated Press yet to call a race that is within range of a recount.

As Democrats keep rolling up wins in districts Trump carried by large margins, signs point to a tough national political climate for the GOP amid the president's sinking approval rating.

Trump's opponents are energized to rein in his administration after a disruptive second term that has generated strong backlash, with critics decrying his aggressive immigration enforcement efforts, use of the military and fixation on perceived political adversaries, among other actions.

Some observers cautioned against reading too much into a low turnout special election, though. Only 29% of registered voters cast ballots in the District 87 race, with the Democrat winning by just under 800 votes.

"This is a small district, it's a low turnout," conservative commentator Scott Jennings said on CNN, adding that people should be careful about extrapolating a relatively narrow victory in such a race "into what could happen nationally."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Democrats on a roll

The victory by Democrat Emily Gregory in Florida House District 87 is just the latest in a series of strong performances for the party in 2025 and 2026.

Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump returned to power last year, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, and also tallied big wins everywhere from the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia to lower-profile contests like the Georgia board that regulates public utilities.

Democrats flipped seats in Texas, Iowa, Florida and elsewhere that Trump won handily. Even in races that Democrats lost, the party's strong overperformance relative to Trump's winning margins has been cause for concern for the GOP.

Marc Short, who served as Vice President Mike Pence 's chief of staff during Trump's first administration, in a March 24 social media post reacting to data on Democratic overperformance in special-election victories this year said that the numbers indicate a "9-alarm fire for GOP heading into midterms."

Is Emily Gregory's victory particularly significant?

Amid the favorable climate for Democrats, the party is especially giddy about Gregory's win.

Winning on Trump's home turf in a strongly Republican-leaning district could be a big public relations coup for the party, which was eager to drive home the message that voters who live closest to the president are rejecting him.

“ Donald Trump ’s own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message: They are furious and ready for change," Martin said in a news release.

Gregory's win could help Democrats raise money and recruit candidates. In an MS NOW interview , Gregory encouraged those who oppose Trump to get "off the sidelines."

"Go for it. Back yourself," Gregory said to prospective candidates. "It only takes you getting off the sidelines to make a difference, and if you want the world to look different, then you have to go out and make it different. I think we've learned over the last several years that no one is coming to save us. We have to save ourselves."

Trump couldn't save GOP candidate

Another worrying sign for the GOP in Florida: Trump's late involvement in the House District 87 race wasn't enough to pull GOP candidate Jon Maples over the finish line.

Trump weighed in the day before the election, writing on social media on March 23 that "there is a very important Special Election tomorrow" and declaring that "JON MAPLES HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!"

Without Trump on the ballot, there are questions about whether his voters will show up to the polls in November. His efforts to rally them on social media haven't been enough in some recent races, even in GOP-leaning seats such as District 87.

Trump did, however, cast a mail-in ballot despite describing mail-in voting as "mail-in cheating" during an appearance this week in Memphis.

Trump's low approval

Democrats' strength at the ballot box comes amid dismal approval ratings for Trump.

A  Reuters/Ipsos survey  released March 24 found that just 36% of Americans are happy with the president's performance, the lowest approval of his second term. Most Americans oppose his decision to strike Iran and give him low marks for his handling of the economy.

The war in Iran has caused gas prices to spike and major stock market indexes to dip, raising concerns about the direction of the economy at a time when many Americans are still acutely concerned about the cost of living, something Gregory emphasized.

“I focused on the issues that matter most to Florida families," Gregory told CNN shortly before her race was called. "Everyone is feeling that affordability crisis and the last thing that Florida families needed when they're struggling is $4 gas.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What Emily Gregory's symbolic election results mean for 2026 midterms