Invasion, coercion, purchase. How Trump's Greenland saga could end

This is an updated version of a story that first ran in March 2025 .

In one corner: The world's largest island, 80% of it covered in ice, whose Danish and Greenlandic leaders say the Americans and their president need to understand that Greenland is not for sale ; it can't be taken; it's "ours."

In the other corner, President Donald Trump , who appears determined to use his second term to acquire the mineral-rich, strategically located Arctic territory, making it America's 51st state.

Trump said he plans to get Greenland "one way or the other," as he remarked on March 4, 2025, in a joint address before Congress. In recent days, Trump, fresh from overseeing a U.S. military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power, has repeated that he wants to gain control of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark. The White House said he's discussing his options, including potential use of the U.S. military, a move that would send shockwaves through the NATO alliance and deepen the divide between Trump and European leaders.

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Greenland is part of Denmark. It's been that way since the 18th century. It has its own local government, with a parliament that oversees some domestic and civil affairs. Laws pertaining to Greenland's defense, national security and economy are controlled by policymakers in Copenhagen, more than 2,000 miles away. (The closest U.S. point to Greenland is about 1,600 miles.) Trump first indicated he wanted to buy Greenland in 2019, during his first term.

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Jan. 7 that his country was working with its European partners on a plan to address how to respond should the United States act on its threat to take over Greenland.

Here are six ways the Greenland saga could play out:

Greenland votes for independence, asks to join US

Greenlanders have been debating for several years whether they would be better off as an independent country, something that could happen if a national referendum were held, which Denmark has said it would allow if a large enough portion ofthe population voted to hold such a vote. Independence from Denmark was a key issue in a separate parliamentary vote in Greenland last year. However, polls have consistently shown that while most Greenlanders would prefer to be independent, they only want that if they don't lose a standard of living that is backed by Denmark's welfare state. And since Trump's fixation on Greenland has reemerged, opinion polls have indicated the vast majority of Greenlanders don't want their island to become part of the United States.

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A 'free' association

Reports have circulated for a few years, perhaps originating from an article co-authored by Trump's newly appointed Arctic commissioner Thomas Dans in 2024, according to Kuno Fencker, a pro-independence Greenlandic opposition MP who attended Trump’s inauguration, that the Trump administration wants Greenland to sign a so-called Compact of Free Association .

In this scenario, the United States would provide Greenland with essential services, security protection and free trade in exchange for its military operating without restriction on those countries' territory. Fencker said the inspiration for this would be similar to compacts the United States has signed with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau. However, Greenland would likely need to vote for independence first. Danish officials and political scientists also note that the United States already enjoys unobstructed military access to Greenland as part of a defense agreement with the Danish government.

Trump tries to buy Greenland

It's not really clear how the Trump administration would be able to purchase Greenland from Denmark , never mind that Denmark has emphatically stated over and over that it's not for sale. There's no obvious legal or commercial pathway for it to happen.

Still, coincidentally, the last foreign territory purchased by the United States was from Denmark. It bought the Virgin Islands in 1917 for $25 million. A few subsequent U.S. territorial expansions in the South Pacific were the result of annexations and treaties, according to the Global Policy Forum, a watchdog.

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Wikistrat, a global risks consultancy, said that one theoretical purchase scenario for Greenland, though it would require agreement from both Greenland and Denmark, could see the United States offer to lease Greenland from Denmark for an extended period. This would be similar to what China did with its Hong Kong territory when it leased it to Britain for 99 years from 1898 to 1997. In another theoretical scenario, Greenland could grant what Wikistrat called "minority shares" in its governance to the United States, primarily in the areas of security and foreign policy. This would mean that the United States would likely need to assume about $800 million in annual subsidies now provided by Denmark.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers recently that the Trump administration's goal is to buy the island from Denmark, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal . Dans and other U.S. administration officials didn't immediately reply to a comment request.

Trump squeezes Greenland and Denmark economically

Trump has been using the threat and imposition of tariffs as a means to achieve his policy goals. He's deployed them on the United States' three largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico and China. He has used tariffs against the European Union, a 27-nation economic bloc of which Denmark is a member, and others. The U.S. president could drastically increase tariffs on Danish – or even the E.U. – goods to force Denmark into concessions over Greenland. Denmark is a major exporter of pharmaceuticals, including insulin. The Danish company Novo Nordisk, for example, makes the diabetes drug Ozempic, which helps with weight loss.

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Pillsbury, an international law firm, has concluded that Trump could attempt to impose tariffs on imports from Denmark by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This act gives the U.S. president broad powers to raise tariffs under the guise of U.S. national and economic security. Russia and China are increasingly showing a greater presence in the Arctic areas near Greenland, which is home to a vast store of valuable deposits of rare earth minerals, although accessing and processing them would be a logistical challenge. The United States relies on China and other countries for its rare earth needs.

Trump invades Greenland

A U.S. invasion of Greenland may seem far-fetched and amount to the proverbial nuclear option, though Trump has not explicitly ruled it out. Any such invasion would also, theoretically, trigger NATO's Article 5, which states that an attack against one member state is an attack against them all. Yet this mutual defense clause is complicated by the fact that Denmark and the United States are both NATO members. How that square gets circled is not clear.

Plus, in his address to Congress in March, Trump said that he "strongly" supported Greenland's "right to determine your own future," suggesting the military option is unlikely, even if he's prepared to be persistent in his attempts to absorb Greenland into the United States.

One senior European diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Trump's Greenland statements were contradictory . Rubio, in The Wall Street Journal interview on Jan. 6, said a U.S. invasion was not imminent.

Jesper Willaing Zeuthen, a Danish political scientist, said that in Denmark, many people had not paid much attention to Greenland until Trump started talking about acquiring it. He said that the United States is a country Danes "loved for its values and sports," but that Trump's rhetoric has soured their opinion. "He's made us feel that we want to put up a fight for Greenland," he said.

Orla Joelsen, a Greenlander who is a prison official in the island's capital, Nuuk, and also frequently comments about the territory and its politics on social media, said on Jan. 6 that his family feels unsafe because of Trump's threats to take over the island.

"Even more painful was being asked this evening: 'Should we leave Greenland before it is too late?'" Joelsen wrote on X .

Trump's Greenland desire wanes

It seems possible Trump could lose interest; that nothing dramatic actually happens.

There already is an important U.S. military base in Greenland, in the northern part of the island, called Thule Air Base. The United States could expand its military presence there, with permission from Greenland and Denmark, by deploying additional troops, upgrading its missile defense systems and establishing new Arctic infrastructure.

Anne Merrild is a professor at Aalborg University. Her research includes a focus on the Arctic and its resources. She said that if Trump's interest in Greenland is primarily driven by security concerns and gaining control over Greenland's mineral licenses, "these objectives could likely be achieved through negotiations between Greenland and the U.S. − without the need for any form of U.S. takeover."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How Trump's Greenland saga could play out