Redistricting war by the numbers: A look at GOP, Democratic gains

Julia Mueller

Wed, April 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC

6 min read

Voters in Virginia last week approved a new, Democratic-friendly congressional map that could tip the fight for House control in the midterms, but Florida is on track to parry with a GOP-favored map that could offset those gains.

The states represent the latest fronts in a national battle over congressional lines. Texas kick-started the tit for tat with new lines giving Republicans an edge last year, prompting other red states to follow suit. California then countered with a plan to benefit Democrats.

The Supreme Court shook up the redistricting landscape on Wednesday with a landmark ruling that weakens a central provision of the Voting Rights Act. Though Florida had long appeared to be the last chance for a state to redistrict this cycle, the ruling could greenlight more map changes across the country.

Democrats need to net just three seats to flip the lower chamber this fall, which upped the stakes for either party to secure the edge through gerrymandering.

Republicans expect to win as many as nine seats through the states that have redistricted so far, while Democrats think they could gain up to 10 seats from the new maps. Florida could give the GOP a few more seats, too.

To cement those numbers, though, each party will still need its favored candidates for the newly drawn districts to win this fall. Here’s where Republicans and Democrats are poised to make pickups after the redistricting war:

Texas: 5 GOP seats

The Lone Star State started the redistricting war last year when the state Legislature approved a new, mid-decade map amid pressure from President Trump and his allies to bolster Republicans’ edge in the red stronghold.

Democratic state lawmakers fled Texas in an effort to stall the maps, drawing national attention and sparking redistricting talks in other states. The Democrats returned only after their counterparts in California introduced a new House map aimed at offsetting the would-be Texas gains, and the Republicans’ map sailed through.

The map created five new Republican-favored House districts that Trump won by double digits in 2024, marking a major GOP win before the midterms as the party seeks to hold its 218-212 majority in the House.

California: 5 seats for Democrats

Democrats in California sprung into action as the Trump-backed redistricting effort made its way through Texas, responding with a blue-friendly plan of their own.

California voters overwhelmingly passed the measure in a November special election, giving the party up to five pickup opportunities in the blue stronghold where Democrats already hold 42 of 52 House seats.

Democrats continued to float the idea of redistricting in Virginia, Maryland and New York after California’s success. But with 2026 primaries already underway in states across the country, Virginia’s ballot measure last week presented itself as Democrats’ last chance for new lines before the midterms.

Virginia: 4 Democratic seats

Virginia Democrats last week approved a state constitutional amendment that lets the Legislature temporarily draw new lines mid-decade, with maps that could give the party as many as four more pickup opportunities this fall.

The Old Dominion’s referendum was pitched as a prime opportunity for Democrats to respond to Trump-backed redistricting in red states.

Under the new maps, Democrats expand their advantage in the House delegation from a 6-5 majority to a 10-1 edge, a critical boost after Texas and California effectively canceled each other out.

The state Supreme Court, however, could effectively invalidate the referendum as it considers legal challenges against the redistricting process, which could complicate Democrats’ path to implementing the new lines.

Florida, too, could change the game by offsetting would-be gains in Virginia — ratcheting up the stakes as the parties jockey for new pickup opportunities.

Florida: 4 likely GOP seats

This cycle’s redistricting war could end soon in Florida, where state lawmakers are convening this week for a special session to consider redistricting .

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who called the session, revealed a new map on Monday that appeared to show Republicans gaining as many as four seats, expanding their current 20-8 House seat advantage. Some political observers, though, noted the GOP may be able to nab only three seats .

DeSantis noted the Supreme Court’s case over the use of race in redistricting as he made plans to redistrict in the Sunshine State. Now that the ruling’s out, it could shake up plans in Florida and elsewhere

Missouri: 1 seat for GOP

As redistricting pressure from the White House and national Republicans built last year, Missouri Republicans moved forward with a map that gives the party one more pickup opportunity this fall.

Republicans already hold six of eight House seats in the Show Me State, but the map dismantles Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district in the Kansas City area, splitting the urban center to make the seat more conservative.

Missouri’s Supreme Court ruled last month that state lawmakers did not violate the state constitution in redrawing the maps. Missouri Democrats submitted signatures in an attempt to force redistricting to a statewide vote, but a Cole County judge said the petition campaign is not enough to pause the maps from taking effect.

North Carolina: 1 Republican seat

North Carolina Republicans advanced their congressional map last fall, offering a pickup opportunity that would expand the GOP’s 10-4 advantage in the Tar Heel State’s House delegation.

The map targets Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) in the 1st Congressional District, a heavily Black district Trump won in 2020.

A federal judge ruled the map could be used for the 2026 cycle after challengers sought to block it from taking effect before the midterms.

Ohio: 2 seats for Republicans

Ohio lawmakers were forced to draw new maps after its 2022 congressional maps failed to reach a threshold of bipartisan support.

Republicans already boast a 10-5 majority in the Buckeye State’s House delegation, and the new maps squeeze two Democratic-controlled seats .

Rep. Greg Landsman (D) in the 1st Congressional District is at risk, and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in the 9th Congressional District is considered among the most vulnerable incumbents in the country after winning a highly competitive race in 2024.

Utah: 1 surprise Democratic seat

Democrats snagged a surprise win in red Utah last year after a judge ordered a redraw of its congressional maps.

Although the state, where Republicans hold all four House seats, had not been named in redistricting chatter alongside states like California where Democrats could redraw to their advantage, the court-ordered changes have given the party one rare pickup opportunity this fall.

The measure has so far survived multiple Republican challenges . A GOP-led petition seeking to repeal the measure didn’t make the November ballot.

Updated at 1:40 p.m. EDT

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