How a Tennessee special election offers clues for the 2026 midterms

Though Republican U.S. Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps won the special election for a congressional seat in Tennessee, his margin of victory was smaller than President Donald Trump's in 2024.

Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 22 percent in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District in 2024, according to the New York Times .

Van Epps, however, defeated Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn by 9%, the outlet reported.

The results of the special election mark a 13% swing towards Democrats, continuing the streak of Democratic candidates over-performing in special elections.

"When a party outperformed in special elections since 2005, five out of five times, they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives," CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, said in a segment aired on Wednesday.

Since April 1, Democrats have overperformed in special elections, according to the New York Times.

In Virginia's 11th District, there was a 16 percent swing towards Democrats from 2024 and in Arizona's 7th District, there was a 17-point swing to the left.

U.S. Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va., won the special election in Virginia's 11th District while U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., won the special election in Arizona's 7th District.

The other two special elections this year took place in Florida's 1st and 6th districts. U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., won the special election for the 1st District and U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla. won in the state's 6th District.

In both races, however, Democrats overperformed. Florida's 1st District's special election saw a 23 percent swing towards Democrats, while the state's 6th District saw a 16% swing towards Democrats.

Enten said the results in Tennessee are a "very, very bad omen for Republicans and a very, very good omen for Democrats."

"Republicans should be running for the hills this morning, because the blue wave is building," Enten said on CNN.

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