Trump Approval Rating: Net -19 A Week Before Election Day

Topline

President Donald Trump is influencing voters to go against his party in next week's election, according to a new survey—the latest to show voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by double digit margins.

Timeline

Oct. 27Trump had a 40% approval rating and 59% disapproval rating among likely voters in an NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday (the survey of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20 and has a margin of error of 3.8).

The poll found respondents favor the Democratic candidate in their district over the Republican 52% to 44%.

A plurality, 44%, said their votes for Congress are mainly votes against Trump, 21% said their votes are in favor of Trump and 35% said he doesn't impact their vote significantly.

Oct. 22Trump's approval rating on the economy is down four points from July to an all-time low of 34% in CNBC polling , while his overall approval rating is stagnant at 40% (the survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Oct. 14-18 and has a margin of error of 3.1).

Sixty-five percent of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, a five-point increase from July.

The survey also found 63% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy, including 35% of Republicans, a six-point point increase from July and the highest percentage of Republicans with negative views about the economy during either of Trump's terms.

Oct. 22Trump's 39% approval rating is unchanged from March in UMass Lowell polling , which also found 52% of those surveyed said they will support the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, compared to 43% who will vote for Republicans (the poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Oct. 2-4 and has a margin of error of 3.8).

Oct. 21Trump's approval rating dipped to a record low of 36% in New York Times/Siena polling , while 59% said they disapprove of his job performance (the poll of 3,494 likely voters was conducted Oct. 12-19 and has a margin of error of 1.9).

The survey also found 52% of respondents prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 41% who prefer the Republican.

Oct. 21Trump has a 32% record-low approval rating in a CNN/SSRS poll of 1,701 U.S. adults taken Oct. 15-18 (margin of error 4.1).

Democrats have a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 39%, in the survey.

Oct. 19The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey found Trump's approval rating has declined one point from its previous record low of 32% and his disapproval rating has increased one point, to 66% (the survey of 1,679 U.S. adults has a margin of error of 2).

When asked which party they would vote for in the midterm election, 47% of respondents said Democrats and 35% said Republicans.

Oct. 5A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday, Oct. 5 found Trump's approval rating at 32%—a record low previously first reached in September.

The poll also found 44% of registered voters who responded planned to vote for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, compared to 37% who planned to vote for Republicans and 13% who said they were still undecided.

A total of 52% of respondents ranked cost of living as the most important issue going into November's elections, including 53% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats.

Oct. 4A CBS/YouGov poll found Trump has a 39% approval rating, while 61% disapprove (the survey of 2,166 U.S. adults was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5).

Trump had a 43% approval rating at this point during his first term , according to Gallup, and former President Joe Biden had a 40% approval rating.

The poll, released on the heels of Trump's meeting with AI leaders, also found the majority, 53%, prefer a midterm candidate who restricts AI use and development, while 22% want someone who promotes it, and 25% said it wouldn't matter.

The sentiment was split across party lines—72% of those who say they'll vote for a candidate who restricts AI said they'll vote for a Democrat and 27% said they'll vote Republican.

Oct. 1Trump had a 26% approval rating on the economy in an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs research poll of 2,140 U.S. adults taken Sept. 24-28 (margin of error 2.9).

The survey also found just 17% approve of his handling of the cost of living, and 65% blame Trump for persistently high costs.

Trump logged an overall job approval rating of 31% and a 38% disapproval rating.

Sept. 29Trump had a 34% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating in the latest Quinnipiac poll of 1,032 registered voters surveyed Sept. 24-27 (margin of error 3.8).

His 31% approval rating on the economy is an all-time low for both terms, and his 28% approval rating on his handling of the situation in Iran ties his all-time low reached in a July 29 Quinnipiac poll.

Sept. 29Trump's 42% approval rating in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll matches his second-term low reached in April and July this year and is a two-point decline from the groups' last poll in August (the latest survey of 2,200 registered voters was conducted Sept. 26-28 and has a margin of error of 2.1).

Sept. 24Trump's 39% approval rating is a one-point decline from last month, and his disapproval rating has increased two points, to 58%, in the latest Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters taken Sept. 21-22 (margin of error 3).

Trump's approval rating initially hit a low of 39% in Emerson polling in May, then climbed to 40% in August.

The poll also found 53% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district in midterms, while 42% said they would vote for the Republican.

Sept. 23Trump's 33% approval rating is a new low point for either of his terms, according to CNN/SSRS polling, and is three points below what it was at this point during his first term in 2018, while 67% disapprove of his job performance, compared to 58% in September 2018 (the latest poll of 1,206 U.S. adults was taken Sept. 16-17 and has a margin of error 3.8).

Trump's approval rating on the economy is 22 points below what it was in September 2018, and Americans' view of the economy generally is 41 points worse.

Sept. 23Trump had a 39% approval rating and 53% disapproval rating in the latest PBS/NPR/Marist poll , an improvement from his 38%/59% rating in June (the poll of 1,280 registered voters was taken Sept. 14-15 and has a margin of error of 3.8).

The poll found Democrats have a 12-point advantage in the race for Congress, with 53% saying they would vote for the Democratic House candidate in their district, compared to 41% who said they would vote for the Republican.

Sept. 21Trump's approval rating reached a new low point, 32%, across both of his terms in another poll , from Reuters/Ipsos, that found approval of his job performance among Republicans has declined from 86% in January to 73% (the survey of 1,277 adults was conducted Sept. 17-20 and has a margin of error of 2.8).

Sept. 6Trump's 33% approval rating in a Financial Times/Focaldata poll is his lowest since the groups began asking the question in May and is down three points from last month (the survey of 1,914 registered voters was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 1 and has a margin of error of 2.6).

The poll found his support among Republican voters has dipped two points, to 72%, a low point.

Negative views of Trump's handling of the economy appear to be continuing to drive down his poll numbers—-with 57% of voters saying they are financially worse off under Trump, compared to 53% last month.

Meanwhile, a plurality of voters, 46%, said Trump is making it harder for Republicans to win in November, and a plurality, 43%, also said his endorsement of a candidate would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.

Sept. 6Trump's 36% approval rating in the latest NBC News survey is one point below what it was in April, a record low in the groups' polling during Trump's second term.

The poll also found a significant decline in his support among his base—41% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump's job performance, down from 52% in the spring, and 62% of self-identified MAGA Republicans support him, down from 71% in the spring (the online survey of 7,105 adults was taken Aug. 20-Sept. 1 and has a margin of error of 3.3).

The share of Republicans who say they strongly approve of Trump's handling of the Iran war has also dropped 18 points, to 30%, and has declined 21 points among MAGA Republicans, to 43%.

Sept. 2Trump's approval rating increased from 42% in July to 44% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey released Wednesday, while 52% of respondents disapprove of his job performance (the poll of 2,100 registered voters was taken Aug. 28-30 and has a margin of error of 2.1).

Mood has improved slightly since July—37% said the country is on the right track, compared to 35% in July, and 52% said it's on the wrong track, down from 55% in July, while the share of voters who said the economy is strong is up two percentage points and the share who said it's weak is down two points.

Still, a plurality of voters, 47%, said their financial situation is getting worse, a one percentage point increase from July, 32% said it's getting better (down two points from July) and 21% said it's the same.

The poll found Democrats have a slight advantage in the midterms, with 51% saying they'd likely vote for a Democrat if their congressional election were held today, compared to 49% who'd prefer a Republican, while 54% of independents said they plan to vote for Democrats, compared to 46% who leaned Republican.

Sept. 2Trump's 33% approval rating—his lowest ever in Reuters/Ipsos polling—is unchanged from the past two weeks in the groups' weekly survey of 1,167 U.S. adults taken Aug. 28-31 (margin of error of 2.9).

The poll reaffirmed the cost of living as the most important issue in the upcoming midterms, with a plurality (47%) saying it's their top concern, while Trump continues to log poor ratings on his handling of the economy—71% disapproval/22% approval.

Surprising Fact

Trump's approval rating is below former President Joe Biden's at this point in his term. Biden had a 40% approval rating in October 2022, according to Gallup.

Big Number

44%. That was Trump's approval rating the week of Oct. 15-21, 2018, during his first term, according to Gallup .

Key Background

Trump began his second term with a 52% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating, according to The New York Times' polling average. He experienced a sharp drop in support with the announcement of his so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs in April last year, and again since the start of the Iran war at the end of February. Voters' economic concerns have remained high throughout Trump's second term, and the Iran war has coincided with an increase in negative views of the economy as gas prices have skyrocketed since the start of the conflict. His approval rating is threatening Republicans in the midterm election, some in states and districts that were considered reliably red just a few months ago.

Further Reading

President Trump's Approval Rating: Latest Polls (New York Times)

How popular is Donald Trump? (Silver Bulletin)

CNN Poll Tracking: President Trump's approval ratings (CNN)

This article was originally published on Forbes.com