'Two too many.' ICE raids drive wedge in 2026 battleground races

President Donald Trump 's stern nationwide campaign against illegal immigration has reached boiling temperatures that could scald Republicans in battleground states and districts ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Outrage over immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota and elsewhere had been building among Democrats and progressives for months, but the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti in January have further exposed the country's raw nerves.

Surveys show a large share of Americans are uncomfortable with the Trump administration's approach to deportation, such as a Jan. 13 poll by Quinnipiac University that found 57% of voters disapprove of the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement is enforcing immigration laws, versus 40% who approve.

That discontent is likely to continue  spilling over this week, whether in Congress  or across the nation, as the administration is expected to reconfigure tactics and messaging  amid a public backlash .

After top administration officials initially defended Pretti's shooting by claiming− in apparent contrast to what video of his shooting shows − that the victim was a  "would-be assassin " who "committed an act of domestic terrorism," White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said at a news conference Jan. 26 that no one in the administration, including the president, wants to see people getting hurt or killed in America’s streets.

Wary Republican lawmakers, candidates and other figures had already begun mapping the fallout by taking a noticeable tone shift , either calling for investigations or suggesting the White House back off.

"Escalating the rhetoric doesn't help, and it actually loses credibility," Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said during a Jan. 25 episode of his podcast, "The Verdict," a day after Pretti's shooting. "And so I would encourage the administration to be more measured, to recognize the tragedy and to say, 'We don't want anyone's lives to be lost.'"

Others have asserted that the two killings are too much to withstand, however.

"I cannot support the national Republicans' stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so," Chris Madel, a Republican candidate for governor of Minnesota, said Jan. 26 in a video message posted on X in which he announced he was dropping out of the campaign for the GOP nomination.

Madel, a trial attorney who represented the immigration officer who shot Good on Jan. 7, said ICE's efforts have expanded far beyond the agency's original focus. He said it has caused U.S. citizens, "particularly those of color," to live in fear and made it impossible for a Republican contender to win in Minnesota.

"Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota has been an unmitigated disaster," he said.

As the on-street clashes intensified, Republican candidates in toss-up contests were being watched for how they are teetering on the issue.

But strategists say most Republicans should not be expected to back down in defending the president's biggest campaign promise, even as some conservatives share their misgivings publicly about fatal outcomes and some aggressive tactics.

John Feehery, a former top Republican congressional aide turned GOP strategist, told USA TODAY he doesn't expect a significant number of conservatives to break with Trump, but it will become a political disaster in the fall if the White House doesn't get a better handle on enforcement operations.

"There's an element you're seeing where Republicans acknowledge we need to be smarter about this," he said. "Then there are the personal reactions, you know; people don't want to see liberal protesters get gunned down, and they don't like it. I don't blame them. I don't like it either."

'Two too many': Minnesota GOP contenders slam Democratic leaders

Other Republicans running for office in the Land of 10,000 Lakes were steadfast in supporting the president's deportation campaign, even as Trump was beginning to pivot.

They argue that rather than encouraging demonstrators or blaming the Trump administration for flooding areas with ICE agents, state and local officials should cooperate with the president in apprehending those living in the country illegally to avoid further violence.

In a message Jan. 24 hours after Pretti's shooting, former sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who is running for the U.S. Senate in Minnesota, encouraged people to "stay away from the affected areas, and wait for the facts." She pointed out that Democratic Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey were both in office in 2020 when clashes broke out amid protests against the murder of George Floyd.

"We can never let that happen again," Tafoya said.

David Hann, a former Minnesota Republican Party chairman who is also running in the Aug. 11 GOP Senate primary, said the pair of killings was " two too many ." Though he asserted that "Minnesotans are not political pawns," he reiterated that calming the waters is mainly a responsibility of Democratic leaders in the state rather than the Trump administration.

Trump's supporters in Minnesota are pointing to a potential reset since the president announced he was sending Tom Homan , the administration's border czar, to oversee operations in Minnesota after the second shooting.

"It's certainly a great opportunity for Walz, Frey, and the rest to reset their stance and begin taking federal authority seriously. We'll see," Walter Hudson, a GOP Minnesota legislator who has defended the crackdown , said in a Jan. 26 post on X .

By the late afternoon, Walz and his team had announced the governor had spoken with Trump after months of bitter verbal jabs , saying the president would consider reducing the number of immigration agents in the state. The governor's office said it was also assured Minnesota investigators can independently probe the Pretti shooting.

Collins staying mostly quiet as ICE operations swarm Maine

The administration's next steps will be crucial, GOP strategists say, especially as voters weigh the responses by Republicans in battleground areas where ICE deployments are taking place.

After Good's death, the  administration launched another immigration enforcement operation  in Maine, where the parties are locked in a battle over the Senate seat now held by five-term GOP incumbent Susan Collins, a moderate known for occasionally breaking with Trump.

Dubbed "Operation Catch of the Day," the administration did not announce how many ICE agents were sent to the Pine Tree State, nor did it outline where its operations would be focused or how long the mission would last.

"The brave men and women of ICE have already arrested more than 200 illegal aliens in Maine in the last five days," the Department of Homeland Security announced Jan. 26.

Though the department says it is gathering "the worst of the worst," immigrant advocates in Maine say that most of those arrested are in legal immigration processes and have no criminal record, and that many have been racially profiled and subjected to inhumane conditions in detention.

The Collins campaign did not respond to USA TODAY's request for comment, and the senator hasn't issued a statement since the second shooting in Minnesota. After Good's death, Collins issued a statement echoing some of the administration's talking points, saying people who are protesting "should be careful not to interfere with law enforcement efforts while doing so."

But the agency's deployment into Maine has ignited a furious response from the top two Democrats seeking to boot Collins from office, which may determine the balance of the Senate later this year.

"It's simple − Congress needs to stand up today and tell this president that Kristi Noem must go and ICE must be withdrawn," said Gov. Janet Mills, a Trump foil who was recruited to run by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, in a Jan. 26 interview on MS Now's (formerly MSNBC) "Morning Joe ." She has criticized Collins , who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, for not taking part in the Democrat-led effort to withhold ICE funding unless new safeguards are added to its tactics.

Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner , a more populist-aligned Democratic contender supported by grassroots progressives, said Americans have "the right and the duty to resist ICE."

"People need to get off the couch, join groups and take part," he said in an MS Now interview.

Republicans defend ICE, Trump's actions, but cracks show on gun rights

Immigration enforcement remains one of Trump's best issues on the political right, but there are noticeable disagreements among the MAGA coalition, including concerns expressed by gun rights groups who expressed dismay that administration officials justified Pretti's shooting because he was carrying a legal firearm at the time of his death.

Noem said at a news conference hours after the shooting that it is a "violent riot when you have someone showing up with weapons," a notion that was denounced by conservative lawmakers and gun rights activists.

In a statement Jan. 26 , former Vice President Mike Pence said the administration's focus now should be to bring together law enforcement at every level to address the community's concerns, "even while ensuring that dangerous illegal aliens are apprehended" in Minnesota.

"The American people deserve to have safe streets, our laws enforced and our constitutional rights of freedom of speech, peaceable assembly and the right to keep and bear arms respected and preserved all at the same time," Pence said.

Feehery, the GOP strategist, said that Republicans by and large still support many of the enforcement activities but that Trump will have to be more disciplined and avoid further escalation to help protect Republican candidates in swing areas.

In the Quinnipiac survey, for instance, 84% of Republican voters said they approve of the way ICE is enforcing the country's immigration laws. That is the reverse of how Democrats see things, the poll shows, with 94% of Democrats and 64% of independent voters disapproving.

"Immigration is one of his biggest promises and it's one of his greatest accomplishments," Feehery said. "Now it's becoming a political liability ."

Pretti's death has already ignited the liberal activists who are pressuring congressional Democrats, demanding they refuse to support any further ICE funding.

More: ICE and Border Patrol. What makes the immigration agencies different?

Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a liberal-leaning immigration reform group, said tepid Republican opposition isn't good enough, and that means Trump's opposition in Washington must be more courageous.

"We are seeing what an enforcement-only, violent approach looks like in real time, and Americans are rejecting that," she said. "It is absolutely reasonable for Democrats to demand that not one more penny goes to ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection."

But GOP contenders are eager for Democrats in swing districts to embrace what grassroots progressives want, especially if stripping away the agency's funding leads to a budget standoff resulting in another government shutdown.

Officials with the National Republican Congressional Committee, which serves as the House GOP's political arm, told USA TODAY they have been focusing on liberal incumbents and challengers in more than a dozen areas for weeks. Many have publicly criticized ICE and questioned the agency's mission, which the NRCC sees as a liability for those Democrats in competitive races.

Among the top targets in 2026 will be Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio. After the Republican-controlled state Legislature's successful redistricting effort last year, Landsman's reelection hopes became more vulnerable, according to the Cook Political Report , which forecasts races.

The 49-year-old incumbent, who represents much of Cincinnati's inner suburbs, said that ICE agents committed "murder" in shooting Good and that Noem should step down as a result.

"The radical 'abolish ICE' crusade from far-left Democrats seemed like a relic of the past, but it’s the brand-new litmus test for Democrats who are barely hanging on and begging on their knees to get approval from their socialist base," Mike Marinella, an NRCC spokesman, told USA TODAY. "The full embrace of their deeply unpopular, lunatic policies exposes the brain rot that has taken over the Democrat Party."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will ICE raids hurt Republicans' chances in 2026 swing states?