Which way will Senate swing in 2026? Here are 11 pivotal races that will decide.

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's agenda in the second half of his second term will hinge on whether Republicans can maintain control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.

In the Senate, where the GOP has a slim 53-47 majority, being the party in charge is vital for the president and his ability to pass key legislation priorities and confirm nominees , including any potential Supreme Court vacancies .

Heading into 2026, congressional Republicans look to keep their legislative advantage but face the challenge of precedent . Often, the party that does not hold the White House fares better in midterm congressional elections. In need of a pick-me-up after last year’s bruising presidential and congressional elections , Democrats are trying to flip the upper chamber back to blue by winning a handful of states scattered from the South to the Great Lakes.

More: What to expect when you're expecting a GOP trifecta

For their part, Republicans trying to defend their majority in next November’s races must first weather some base-splitting primaries in which established GOP incumbents hope to hold on against challengers from inside their own party.

Here are 11 Senate races to watch across the country heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

1. North Carolina

More: Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper announces run for Senate in a win for Democrats

North Carolina’s two-term senior senator, Republican Thom Tillis, announced in June that he would not be seeking reelection .

His news, which Tillis called “not a hard choice,” came as debates over Trump’s sweeping tax, spending and policy bill engulfed Congress and pitted Republicans against one another.

The news was music to Democrats’ ears.

Already a top target for the liberal party in next year’s midterms, the North Carolina race was set to be one of the most competitive Senate battles in 2026, even with Tillis on the ballot.

More: After Lara Trump opts out, president endorses RNC Chair Whatley for NC Senate race

Now, the open seat has attracted high-profile contenders on both sides of the aisle.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, announced his campaign formally on July 28 after weeks of speculation.

On the Republican side, Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and former co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said she considered jumping in. But after she announced July 24 that she would not run for the seat, President Trump gave his backing to Republican National Committee chair and former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley.

Primary elections will be held March 3.

2. Michigan

In Michigan, another retiring incumbent has set the stage for a toss-up race next year.

Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, announced in January that he would not seek a third term representing the Great Lakes State in the Senate.

More: Michigan's Gary Peters won't run for US Senate reelection next year

His absence leaves the race open for either party's taking.

Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman with Trump’s endorsement , is his party’s expected nominee. Rogers ran in 2024 and lost narrowly to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin.

Among Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow lead the pack of 2026 candidates. Primary elections in the state will be held Aug. 4.

3. Georgia

Georgia’s Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff must fend off a pack of conservative lawmakers to hang on to his seat in 2026.

Alongside fellow Georgia Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, Ossoff won a runnoff election in January 2021 that secured him a first term in Congress and his party a chamber majority.

Once again, his race will be key in determining whether Democrats win control of the Senate.

Republicans looking to unseat him include Rep. Buddy Carter, a former pharmacist who represents the Savannah area.

Carter was first to throw his red hat in the ring. But others, including Rep. Mike Collins, have since joined the contest. Carter and Collins are coveting Trump's support, an endorsement that could carry weight with Georgia’s deep-red electorate pockets.

Georgia's primary elections are set for May 19.

4. Texas

Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn stands a good chance of winning a fifth term against a Democratic challenger next November in the red-leaning Lone Star State.

But first, he must make it through what is promising to be a tough primary against the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton.

Cornyn has served in the Senate since 2002, but early polls showed him down double digits to Paxton.

More: Texas AG Ken Paxton's wife files for divorce 'on biblical grounds'

National Republicans have expressed concern that Paxton, who has faced indictments, impeachment and, more recently, a very public divorce , could cost the GOP their safely held Texas seat in a general election.

Democrat and former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, has announced his campaign for 2026. Texas state Rep. James Talarico has said he is “seriously considering” a run as well.

More: Former congressman Colin Allred launches 2026 campaign for US Senate

Primary elections in the Lone Star State are set for March 3.

5. South Carolina

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, has also drawn a GOP challenger in his 2026 bid for reelection.

Paul Dans, the original author of Project 2025 , a sweeping conservative agenda to overhaul the federal government, announced his candidacy at an event in Charleston July 30.

More: Lindsey Graham gets Republican challenger: Project 2025 author to announce Senate bid

The primary contest will likely pit MAGA voters in the Palmetto State against one another.

Though Graham has been a regular target of criticism from Trump − displeased by the lawmaker at times breaking from the GOP leader − he is now an ally to the president and has already received Trump's “complete and total endorsement.”

Dans' primary challenge will be an uphill battle. Should Graham come out on top, he is heavily favored to win a fifth term representing the Palmetto State.

A pack of Democrats are vying to face Graham or Dans in the general, though South Carolina is generally considered a safely red seat. Both party primaries will be held June 9.

6. Maine

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is about to wrap her fifth term in the Senate, and while she has yet to formally announce her bid for reelection, many colleagues expect her to run again.

Her position as one of the upper chamber’s most independent voices has kept her in favor, and in office, with her left-leaning state, though Democrats still see this upcoming race as one of their top pickup opportunities if two-term Gov. Janet Mills decides to run.

Collins has garnered a reputation for being one of the few congressional Republicans willing to tell Trump no. She voted against two of his major legislative priorities this summer – a sweeping tax and spending bill, as well as a $9 billion cut to public broadcasting and foreign aid funding – and has openly criticized some of the president’s nominees.

More: ‘See you in court.’ Trump, Maine governor clash in tense exchange at White House

Willingness to oppose Trump typically comes with the president’s full public ire – and often a MAGA-aligned primary opponent.

But Collins is the only Republican senator to have won a state in which Democrats won the popular vote in 2024. Her unique position seems to, at least for now, have kept Trump from speaking out against who many view as the GOP’s best chance to keep their seat in Maine.

Several Democratic candidates have announced campaigns against Collins, including David Costello, who ran unsuccessfully against Maine’s Independent Sen. Angus King in 2024. All eyes are most focused on Mills, the state governor who has also tussled with Trump but hasn't yet said whether she will run. Maine will have its primaries on June 9.

7. Minnesota

Minnesota's Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced earlier this year that she plans to retire at the end of her term, calling the decision "entirely personal."

With the state's blue tilt, Smith's seat has a good chance of staying in Democrats' hands.

More: 'Entirely personal': Democrat Tina Smith to not seek reelection in 2026

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Annie Craig are among the front-runners for their party's nomination. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz , 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' running mate , opted back in February not to run for the Senate .

On the Republican side, former NBA player Royce White is running again after losing his bid against Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2024. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze has also announced his campaign for the GOP nomination. The Minnesota primaries will be held Aug. 11.

8. Ohio

The Buckeye State represents one of Democrats' few pickup opportunities, and even then it will not be an easy flip.

Republican Sen. Jon Husted was picked by Ohio's governor to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance at the start of the year, and Husted will be on the ballot next November to keep his spot.

Ohio has become reliably red in recent years, making the fight to flip it tough for Democrats.

Their best shot probably is former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown , who lost his bid for reelection last year to Sen. Bernie Moreno. Axios reported that Brown met with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in late July as part of the top Senate Democrat's efforts to lobby Brown to run again.

9. New Hampshire

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire announced she would not be seeking another term in 2026 either.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who launched his campaign in April, is widely seen as a strong contender to succeed Shaheen.

More: Former GOP Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown running for Senate in New Hampshire

Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and former ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in Trump's first term, is among a handful of candidates competing on the GOP side.

Like Minnesota, Cook Political Report has rated New Hampshire's race leaning Democrat.

10. Iowa

In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, has the advantage, with Cook Political Report rating her race likely Republican.

Three Democrats so far have launched bids in hopes of beating those odds: Nathan Sage, the former chamber of commerce director from Knoxville; state Rep. J.D. Scholten ; and state Sen. Zach Wahls .

More: Iowa Democratic Rep. and minor league pitcher J.D. Scholten to run against Sen. Joni Ernst

Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill, passed into law earlier this summer, is expected to be a defining issue in Iowa's race.

Ernst was one of 50 Senate Republicans who voted in favor of the legislation, which her Democratic opponents decried as a move "to gut Medicaid for hundreds of thousands of Iowa children and families." Iowa's primary is set for June 2.

11. Nebraska

Nebraska is widely seen as a Republican stronghold with incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, though there could be a surprisingly competitive race in 2026 with Independent candidate Dan Osborn jumping back into a statewide election.

More: Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up U.S. Senate

Osborn came within 7 percentage points of beating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, a closer-than-expected margin in the GOP-dominated state.

Osborn, a former labor leader, is a registered Independent but received campaign contributions from Democrats in his last campaign (money he told NBC he did not ask for). Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor and part owner with his family of the Chicago Cubs, is running for a full term after being appointed to the job in January 2023 upon the resignation of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will win Senate majority in 2026? These are 11 key races to watch.