Why Trump’s polling is tanking as 2026 midterms approach
Recent polling suggests that Donald Trump's second coalition, which helped him win the 2024 presidential race, is beginning to fracture as the U.S. inches closer to the midterms.
In recent weeks, polls have been released showing that Trump is losing key young, non-white and low-propensity voters who swung decisively in his direction in 2024.
In a New York Times-Siena poll published on Jan. 22, Trump's approval rating fell to 40%, down from over 50% at the start of his second term.
Among voters aged 18 to 29, disapproval has hit 69%, a massive swing from the support he enjoyed in late 2024.
Additionally, only 27% of non-white voters currently approve of his performance, a figure lower than his 2024 exit poll numbers.
Conservative Pollster and Strategist Patrick Ruffini told Politico in a recent interview that Trump's coalition isn't "dead," but it is under extreme stress due to affordability issues.
"I think that is undeniable," he told the media outlet. "It's the number one issue among the swing voter electorate."
Trump campaigned on lowering prices , and inflation has fallen from 3.48% last March to 2.89% today.
However, concerns have been brought up around tariffs which Trump has promised to put on overseas goods, especially from Mexico, Canada and China, the U.S.'s largest trading partners.
The president has argued that tariffs will tame the economy and bring down prices, according to the Associated Press .
But the Harvard Business School Pricing Lab has noted in a recent study that tariffs have contributed to rising prices for household essentials such as clothing (up 14%) and furnishings (up 8%) in 2025.
Additionally, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the Trump administration's tariffs will cost the average household an estimated $1,700 annually.
Ruffini suggests that while the "populist" core (white working-class voters) remains loyal, the "disconnected" voters (young, minority men) are drifting away because they are not connected to one political party and are inherently non-partisan. To win them back, he said, Trump should become laser-focused on reducing the daily cost of living.
"I think that's obviously their North Star right now," he told Politico. "The core Democratic voter is concerned about the erosion of norms and democracy. The core Republican voter is concerned about immigration and border security. But this swing vote is very, very much concerned about the cost of living."
Overall, Ruffini noted that midterms are usually decided by older, whiter and more college-educated voters, meaning the true test of this "new" coalition may not come until the 2028 presidential election.
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