What might cause human extinction? AI deemed greatest threat
Accurate forecasting has long been an art and a science, but when the stakes are high, it is smart to make it into a tournament.
Researchers recently systematically surveyed two competing groups of experts: Those with highly specialized knowledge in particular fields − known as "domain experts," and "superforecasters" − those who have a track record of accurate predictions in many fields from pandemics to geopolitics.
Superforecasters tend to outperform domain experts with some consistency because those with more expert knowledge tend not to be able to see the greater realities outside their respective fields. Superforecasters, on the other hand, still rely on the analysis of data, but also exhibit a keen awareness of the human factors that help determine future events, including the limitations of their own biases.
By the year 2100, the two groups have very different predictions about the likelihood of a catastrophic global event that kills 10% of the world population (800 million people) as well as the likelihood of human extinction that leaves no more than 5,000 individuals alive in the world.
The potential causes of catastrophe and human extinction by 2100 were few. Artificial intelligence (AI) topped the list for both groups. Nuclear war and genetically engineered pathogens followed. Non-anthropogenic causes were low.
The domain experts project a 20% risk of major catastrophe and 6% for extinction while the superforecasters' predictions are more reassuring at 9% and 1%.
Both groups see AI as a "force multiplier" that can accentuate the other potentially lethal scenarios. The superforecasters anticipate that AI will be restrained by societal interventions, while despite the risks, domain experts see a race to the bottom by companies or countries using AI to gain competitive advantage.
As new advances in AI are incorporated into the predictive puzzle, updates in forecasting will occur, but this research provides a lesson for all of us.
How we react to our threats makes a huge difference as to what we might expect of our fate.
The real question for human societies is whether they are willing to totally reassess their beliefs and priorities even if it means changing the way they live and the way they cooperate with people from different nations and cultures.
William Culbert is an Oak Ridge resident and retired physician.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: What might cause human extinction? AI deemed greatest threat
