Can Donald Trump turn out the voters Ken Paxton needs in Texas?

President Donald Trump is back in Texas this week to help boost Republicans ahead of the midterms.

Not everyone in the party is sure it's such a good idea.

The president has made a flurry of visits to the state as his Senate nominee, Ken Paxton, waivers in the polls and as Republican congressional candidates face stronger-than-expected Democratic challenges. But with Trump's approval rating at all-time lows, and many voters upset over high gas prices and the Iran war, some Republicans are skeptical that more visibility from the president is actually boosting their candidates' chances of winning on Nov. 3.

"You have to win the suburban moms, some of the rural voters, Latinos, small business owners, and I don't know if Trump's presence necessarily does that," said Chad Wilbanks, a former executive director for the Republican Party of Texas.

DONOR TRACKER: Who are the biggest donors backing Talarico and Paxton in the Texas Senate race? See our list

"Good campaigns control the battlefield, and we don't voluntarily move the battlefield onto terrain the opposition would rather fight," he added. "That's what Democrats are seeing when Trump comes into town."

Trump's visits to red states this cycle have been notable, particularly in Texas. Democrats say it's an obvious sign that the GOP is worried, and no one in the state has been more closely tied to the president than Paxton, who has been alongside him for many of his trips to the state. Paxton will be with Trump again at rallies in Lubbock and Corpus Christi on Tuesday.

"We think Trump coming was really just a way to try to rejuvenate some of their mojo," said Delia Parker-Mims, chair of the Denton County Democratic Party. Trump visited Denton earlier this month. "I don't really think anybody really wants him to come, because the minute he does come, I'm gonna take a picture of whoever the hell is standing next to him."

In some parts of the state, like South Texas, GOP candidates have taken steps to distance themselves from Trump. In Corpus Christi, U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez has put up billboards featuring his opponent, Eric Flores, alongside Trump, which Flores has reportedly tried to get taken down. Even Paxton himself, in a leaked audio clip first reported by the New York Times, seemed to admit that the president was a drag after the midterm convention.

"To be honest with you, the numbers - when we did that convention - it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good," Paxton said in the audio from a fundraiser.

EARLY VOTER TRACKER: Search by county and see where turnout is highest

But while other candidates may have taken steps back, and despite his own comments, Paxton has publicly leaned into his connection with the president, boasting about it at rallies.

"President Trump said I'm the most effective attorney general in the country," he told voters on Saturday morning in New Braunfels.

Some Republicans say Trump's presence is helping to motivate Republican voters who may otherwise sit out the election.

"These midterms are about turnout, and there's no better person in the country to deliver voters than the president," said Joe Gruters, chairman of the Republican National Committee. He said that "the president's visits alone" will "tilt the race in Ken Paxton's favor."

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has recently joined Paxton on the campaign trail, also said Trump will drive the turnout needed.

"The left, who hates Trump, they're going to show up and vote. And the big open question is, does everybody else show up?" he said outside a Paxton rally in New Braunfels. "When President Trump comes to a state, to a community, he drives up turnout, and I think that is enormously helpful in this race."

As early voting numbers roll in, Republicans know they need to drive out as many people as possible in rural areas of the state. Rural voters are largely credited with helping Cruz beat his competitive challenge from Beto O'Rourke in 2018, and while Trump may not be helpful in the Rio Grande Valley or in Houston, he's still a good surrogate with those voters, some said.

"They're targeting the areas of the state where there are those types of voters that would be the best voters for the president to be in front of and for Paxton's campaign," said John Jackson, a former campaign manager for U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Gov. Greg Abbott.

Outside Paxton's rally in New Braunfels, many Republican voters were excited about Trump coming to the state so many times. Asked if Trump is more popular than Paxton, and can help him turnout more people, a group of supporters gave a resounding yes. "Of course," one person said.

"I love him coming to Texas," said James Bice, a voter from Canyon Lake. "He energizes everybody."

"He could never come enough," said Sherri Angle Lowe, who came to Paxton's rally wearing a red cowboy hat covered in hearts and carrying an American flag. "We love that he comes to Texas."

Still, Democrats say they love it, too.

Kim Gilby is the Williamson County Democratic Party chair – a county that is key for Democrats to turn out as many voters as possible as it's become more purple. She's excited about this election and confident that the county will go fully blue this year.

"If this is like, their magic solution to saving Texas, I don't think they're going to find it in Donald Trump. I don't, because look at his approval ratings right now," she said. "For Paxton and Trump to walk hand in hand into the sunset would not be a bad thing for us."

Subscribe

There's more to Houston with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.

This article originally published at Can Donald Trump turn out the voters Ken Paxton needs in Texas? .