Poll: Dem Crowley, GOP's Tiffany Nearly Even in Wis.

Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., are running nearly even for Wisconsin's open governor's seat, a poll shows, as the candidates face scrutiny over economic concerns and the war in Iran.

The Marquette University Law School poll , released this week, finds Crowley with 46% support among registered voters and Tiffany with 45%. Another 9% are undecided, leaving the contest well within the survey's margin of error.

Among likely voters, Crowley leads 49%-46%, with 5% undecided. That sample's margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

In August, Crowley led Tiffany 49%-44% among likely voters.

The Nov. 3 election will determine who succeeds Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is not seeking a third term. His departure creates Wisconsin's first open race for governor in 16 years, with Democrats defending an office they have held since 2019 and Republicans seeking to regain unified control.

Crowley narrowly defeated state Rep. Francesca Hong in the August Democratic primary. Evers backed Crowley, while President Donald Trump endorsed Tiffany, who has represented Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District since winning a special election in May 2020.

Crowley has led Milwaukee County since 2020, becoming its youngest executive and first Black leader. Tiffany served in the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate before entering Congress and was a member of the state's legislative budget committee.

Trump won Wisconsin in 2024. The poll puts his approval among Wisconsin registered voters at 38%, with 60% disapproving, adding pressure on Republicans competing in the battleground.

Tiffany reiterated his call to end the Iran fighting last week when FOX6 News Milwaukee reporter Jason Calvi questioned why he has repeatedly opposed House war powers resolutions despite advocating an end to the conflict.

"The president has final say in regards to this," Tiffany replied, according to a video Calvi shared on social media .

"I just believe that we should be exiting Iran, that it's time to move on," Tiffany added. "We've degraded their nuclear facilities. We degraded their military. Most of their ships are at the bottom of the ocean. Time to come home, take care of business here in America."

The comments highlight the foreign policy debate spilling into a state race centered on issues affecting Wisconsin households. Crowley has attacked Tiffany's congressional votes as the campaigns argue over responsibility for higher fuel costs.

Campaign spending is also intensifying. Tiffany has outspent Crowley on advertising, $40 million to $26 million, according to AdImpact data reported Thursday by The Associated Press . Three billionaire donors account for more than $24 million of Tiffany's fundraising over the past two months.

The poll suggests turnout could prove decisive: 85% of Democratic registered voters say they are certain to vote, compared with 78% of Republicans. Among independent likely voters, 38% remain undecided, leaving a substantial pool of voters for both campaigns to pursue over the campaign's final month.

The survey, conducted by Marquette Law School Poll from Sept. 16-23, 2026, among 843 registered Wisconsin voters and 692 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

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