When will we see results in 4th District between Boebert, Laubacher?
The race between Republican Lauren Boebert and Democrat Eileen Laubacher in one Colorado congressional seat is still a nail-biter two days after the close of polls, and it appears to be an uphill climb for Boebert from here.
As of about 2 p.m. Nov. 6, Boebert is still trailing Laubacher by less than 1 percentage point in the 4th Congressional District race.
The race between political firebrand Boebert and former Navy admiral Laubacher is being closely watched after Democrats flipped two other Colorado congressional seats.
The margin in the 4th District race has gotten tighter since election night, and now Boebert and Laubacher are separated by 3,278 votes. Laubacher has 48.78% of the votes while Boebert has 47.92%.
Libertarian Douglas Mangeris is pulling in 3.31% of the votes so far, and his share of the votes has been inching up after the latest results.
Exactly when the outcome will be known is still unclear and depends on whether the race gets even tighter as more ballots are counted.
As more votes were tallied Nov. 5, Laubacher began extending her lead. But both candidates have taken turns netting more votes as new results are posted.
In one major county where Boebert has been doing well with voters, the bulk of the counting is done. In others, where she's struggling, ballot processing continues.
How many ballots are left to be counted?
The exact figure is unknown, but there appear to be at least 5,000 remaining to be counted in the four most populous counties within the district, as of 2 p.m. Nov. 6.
The 4th District comprises parts or all of 21 different counties. The most impactful individual counties are Douglas, Larimer, Weld, Arapahoe, Morgan and Elbert because they have the most 4th District voters and, therefore, the most ballots to count.
Douglas County has about half of the district's voters, and there could be around 2,000 more countywide ballots to count there, according to a comparison of the number of ballots cast and the number that have been tallied so far.
Nearly all of Douglas County voters are in the 4th District, so a high percentage of those ballots should be relevant in the race.
Boebert is so far failing to get a majority of support in that county, where Laubacher has 54% of the votes and Boebert has 43%. (Laubacher lives in Douglas County's Highlands Ranch, while Boebert lives in Windsor, which straddles Weld and Larimer.)
Laubacher has also dominated in Larimer County, which has the 4th District's second largest segment, with 57% of the votes, compared with Boebert's 40%.
There are likely around 1,400 more ballots to be counted, based on estimates from Michele Mihulka, Larimer's elections manager, and the number of vote counts that were released most recently.
Earlier this week, she said election workers might still be counting ballots as late as Nov. 6.
In Weld County, which represents the 4th District's third largest segment of voters, Boebert is far ahead. She has 57% support, and Laubacher is getting 39%.
But the bulk of 4th District ballots have already been counted, Weld County Clerk Carly Koppes told the Coloradoan.
All that is left to count there are ballots coming in from military and overseas voters or those being conveyed from other counties. In addition, 474 4th District ballots still need to be cured, meaning the voters who cast them had a signature discrepancy that needs to be addressed in order for them to be counted.
Laubacher also has a big edge in Arapahoe County, the fourth largest segment of the 4th District, where she has 61% of the votes to Boebert's 36%.
About 2,000 4th District ballots likely remain to be counted, based on information provided by Tom Skelley, the county's election divisions spokesperson, and the number of ballots that have come in from the county since then. Less than 7% of the county votes in the 4th District.
Boebert has the majority of votes in the remaining 17 counties, where she is seeing anywhere from 60% to 84% support, depending on the county.
Those counties make up a quarter of the 4th District.
Will there be a recount in the Colorado 4th Congressional District race?
Right now, the race is not in automatic recount territory.
In Colorado, an automatic recount is triggered if the margin is within a half a percent of the total number of votes for the top candidate, which at this time would be 926 votes.
Any candidate can request a recount at their own campaign's expense, regardless of the margin.
An attorney for Boebert, Scott Gessler, who is a former Colorado Secretary of State, said in a statement that he expects the race to head to a recount, "one way or another" and cited "unusual voting patterns."
"A significant number of votes remain outstanding in the race. We are fighting for every vote and will continue to ensure every legal vote is counted. Since election night, ballot returns have been trending in Congresswoman Boebert's direction, consistently lowering the margin under one percentage point." Gessler said in the statement. "We are investigating some very unusual voting patterns and expect this election to head to a recount, one way or another."
"Every legal vote must be counted accurately, fully, and transparently," he said. "We will continue to investigate throughout the process to protect the integrity of this election and ensure Coloradans can have complete confidence in the results."
Boebert's past wins
Boebert has been a polarizing figure in national and Colorado politics, first coming to office in 2020 in the 3rd Congressional District that covers western Colorado.
She won reelection by a razor-thin margin, with 50.1% of the votes, in 2022. It was so close, a recount was required.
Then in late 2023, Boebert announced she was going to run in the 4th District of eastern Colorado, an even more reliably conservative district.
She was elected in 2024 with more than 53% of the votes. For comparison, her predecessor, Republican Rep. Ken Buck, won that district with more than 60% of the votes in the prior two elections.
This story has been updated to reflect the latest election results and add new information.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: When will we see results in 4th District between Boebert, Laubacher?
