Tectonic Shifts in Statehouses Matter More Than Congressional Wins
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM's home for opinion and news analysis.
The exuberance about control of Congress is not misplaced. It's hard earned. And Democratic-led investigations and oversight that pours sunlight on the illegal horrors of this administration will be meaningful. But it won't cancel the medical debt that burdens 100 million Americans , or raise the minimum wage. Nor will it stop what's already coming from the "Big Beautiful Bill", including Medicaid cuts projected to strip coverage from 10 million people . Federal legislation that fundamentally and materially changes our lives is unlikely to be signed into law in the next two years. The president has already vowed to use his veto power aggressively.
The bigger opportunity is in the newfound power Democrats have at the state level, which is where most of the rubber hits the road in our lives anyway. And that's where Tuesday's most consequential shift happened. Democrats gained six new trifectas and broke five Republican ones. They flipped twelve legislative chambers and lost none. They shattered at least ten Republican supermajorities, many in ruby-red territory. Some results still rest on unofficial counts, but the direction is not in doubt.
Democrats won big in the states on Tuesday, and they will win or lose 2028 on what they do with these victories. States can cap insulin costs, keep medical debt off credit reports, require heat protections so people don't literally die in sweltering workplaces and block immigration agents from schools and hospitals. Some states have already done each of these things. Now, many more of them can.
If enough new and expanded majorities act, those policies can provide many millions of Americans with tangible relief quickly. These wins can also help Democrats carry 2028 and build the case for national action once they hold the keys in Washington again. But the clock is short. Most state legislative sessions start in January.
Blue Statehouse Tsunami
On Tuesday, Democrats won trifectas galore, meaning control of the governorship and both legislative chambers. In Pennsylvania, Democrats flipped the Senate for the first time since 1993, handing Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro full control in Harrisburg. Wisconsin Democrats won both chambers , giving Gov.-elect David Crowley the first Democratic trifecta in 16 years. Minnesota's DFL returns to a trifecta under Gov.-elect Amy Klobuchar. Michigan Democrats appear to have retaken the House to work alongside Gov.-elect Jocelyn Benson. In Nevada, Attorney General Aaron Ford unseated Gov. Joe Lombardo , joining a Democratic legislature. And in Arizona, if counts hold, Democrats will have their first legislative majority in 60 years .
Five Republican trifectas fell, as Democrats won governorships in Georgia , Iowa , Ohio and Texas , while New Hampshire Democrats took both chambers and all five Executive Council seats . All twelve chambers that changed hands went blue. Among others, the North Carolina House flipped for the first time since 2010 ; the Georgia House flipped for the first time since 2002 ; and Democrats took the Texas House , ending more than two decades of Republican rule.
Texas surprised me most. In 2022, I led research on what comes before a legislature flips parties. From 2000 to 2020, every single Democratic legislative flip came after the state had already recently voted for a Democrat for president. Texas hasn't done that since 1976 . On Tuesday, it broke the pattern.
The supermajority shifts were just as sweeping. A supermajority, typically two-thirds (⅗ in some states) of a chamber, lets a party override a governor's veto when it holds one in both chambers. Republicans lost ten: in the Ohio , Indiana , Iowa , Kansas , South Carolina and Florida Houses, the North Carolina Senate , both chambers in Missouri , and conservatives' filibuster-proof bloc in Nebraska . Utah's House may make it eleven . On the flipside, Democrats gained nine: both chambers in Colorado and Vermont , plus the New York Senate (where Democrats reclaimed a supermajority they lost in 2024), Nevada Assembly , Maine Senate , New Mexico House and Delaware House .
Now Comes the Hard Part: Governing
Tuesday's results were an absolute torrent of winning at the state level. Now comes the hard part: translating political power into change people can see and feel in their daily lives. With an archconservative Supreme Court stripping away federal rights and a gridlocked Congress, state legislatures already decide whether you can access a safe abortion, drink clean water, or earn a living wage. After Tuesday, many more of them have the power to get those things right.
New trifectas can get a lot done, fast. When Michigan Democrats won a brief but sweet trifecta in 2022, they repealed right-to-work and struck a 1931 abortion ban from the books . Minnesota's DFL ran its 2023 trifecta on a one-seat Senate majority and still passed paid family leave, abortion rights protections and universal free school meals . Virginia Democrats used their first session in 2020 to ratify the ERA, tighten gun laws and expand voting access .
The six new trifectas will face plenty of competing demands, and enormous room to improve lives quickly. Take health care. Minnesota requires hospitals to screen patients for financial assistance before sending bills to collections; the other five don't. Fifteen states keep medical debt off credit reports ; five new trifectas could join them in their first session.
And critically, they can do it together. Conservatives figured this out long ago : ALEC has spent half a century moving model bills from capitol to capitol, and when 22 Republican state financial officers want to lean on Wall Street, they sign one letter. The center-left has been slow to build that kind of state power infrastructure. We're building it now, through shared policy, cross-state learning, coordinated action and interstate compacts that let states pool their power. At State Futures , we're readying the bunting for our welcome party as we prepare to work with hundreds of new electeds across the country, and deepen our work with the more than 850 state policymakers already in our network.
Tremendous wins abound up and down the ballot, but the ones in state legislatures are the truly tectonic shifts. New and expanded majorities can now cut what families pay for health care and prescription drugs ; raise wages and keep workers safe on the job; and bar immigration agents from classrooms and clinics. Voters handed lawmakers who share our values the levers of power. They have to pull those levers fast – momentum has a short half-life.
