Presidential TV ad spending way down in Florida, but amendments draw big bucks
While Florida Democrats continue to talk up the possibility of a political comeback powered by surprise election victories in November, TV ad spending may suggest that neither party sees that as likely.
The media tracking firm, AdImpact, found that Florida's decidedly Republican lean is sharply cutting into campaign spending on TV spots this election season.
In the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, a modest $1.4 million in spending and ad reservations have been placed. That's not much, considering Florida is the nation's third largest state – with 10 costly TV markets.
"This pales in comparison to previous presidential election cycles, as 2016 saw $55M (million) in aired general election spending, and 2020 saw $177M during that time frame," AdImpact reported.
Florida fades as a battleground state — and TV dollars dry up
The drop in spending shows Florida is no longer the battleground it was since 2000, when Republican George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes and with it the presidency. Instead, seven presidential toss-up states – not Florida – are where Trump and Harris are slugging it out, with personal appearances and on TV.
AdImpact found that while Trump and Republicans have all but ignored Florida, the Harris campaign has spent a modest $539,000 on TV in the state.
Trump carried Florida in both of his earlier presidential runs and polls show him on track to again win the state and its 30 electoral votes.
But there is some noticeable amount of spending, in the race between Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Polls show that race is tight. Scott, who in two victories as governor and one as a Senator, never topped a 1.2% winning margin, is seen as somewhat vulnerable as he runs for reelection.
The Senate race has drawn $17.3 million in total spending and reservations, with 63% coming from Democratic advertisers, AdImpact reported. Still, that is down from past election cycles.
In 2022, when Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio easily won re-election over Democratic challenger Val Demings, that race, while also rated likely Republican, had by now already seen $24.9 million in aired advertising, half of it coming from Democratic advertisers.
State a 'shell of former competitive self'
Florida's slump in TV advertising is up and down the ballot, records show.
"In terms of non-Presidential general election spending, Florida continues to be a shell of its former competitive self. Between today and Election Day, the state has just $15.5M in spending and reservations, ranking 19th among all states," the company said.
Florida viewers, though, are still subject to heavy spending on two constitutional amendments on the November ballot.
Amendment 3, legalizing marijuana, and Amendment 4, protecting abortion rights, have drawn a combined $100.8 million in TV ads, putting Florida second only to California's $187.8 million in 2024 issue spending, AdImpact found.
Both ballot proposals need to win support from at least 60% of Florida voters, a high bar set in the state's constitution. The requirement makes the issues extremely competitive and is fueling spending.
Probably no surprise to any Floridian who's turned on TV in the last few weeks, the marijuana measure is drawing the most ad dollars, $68 million in spending and reservations.
More than $55 million is airing in support of the amendment, with Smart & Safe Florida, the organization behind the proposal, responsible for all the spending.
In turn, Smart & Safe and its advertising is funded almost entirely by the Quincy-based cannabis firm, Trulieve. The opponent campaigns, No on 3 spent $8.2 million and the Florida Republican Party spent $3.5 million.
DeSantis fighting both amendments with taxpayer-funded state agencies
Gov. Ron DeSantis is fighting both Amendments 3 and 4. His use of a state agency to oppose the abortion measure has drawn lawsuits, one seeking to block a website put up by the Agency for Health Care Administration, was dismissed by a state court but another challenge is still pending in the Florida Supreme Court.
DeSantis' Department of Health last week also threatened legal action against a Tampa TV station for airing an abortion rights ad.
The abortion rights Amendment 4 has drawn $32.8 million in TV ads, with the supporting Floridians Protecting Freedom spending $22.1 million of that. The Florida Republican Party has spent $10.5 million to defeat the measure, AdImpact found.
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But the lack of spending in the presidential contest shows that both parties seem to expect a certain outcome in Florida.
Trump and national Republicans appear confident and are withholding TV spending. Harris and Democrats are pouring dollars into states where they see a better chance for success.
Still, Florida Democrats – hoping to regain some political footing in the state – continue to find silver linings.
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried recently touted having received $400,000 from the Democratic National Committee for campaign homestretch activity: "The money is coming; the people are on the ground ... Florida is in play and we're continuing to see that in poll after poll."
After Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016 by 1.2% over Democrat Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by a comfortable more than 370,000-vote margin over President Biden in 2020, a 3.3% gap.
DeSantis won reelection two years ago by 19% over Democrat Charlie Crist, further sealing the state's image as a GOP bastion.
Moreover, there are now 1 million more registered Republican voters in Florida than Democrats, with Democrats holding no statewide offices and facing Republican supermajorities in the state House and Senate.
Democrats are hoping to flip five seats in the state House next month to shake the stigma of holding only one-third of the 120-member chamber. Republicans, though, look assured of retaining their Senate supermajority.
John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network's Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com , or on X at @JKennedyReport .
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida presidential TV ads vanish but big money spent on 2 amendments
