July was brutal in Minnesota, and the numbers show how much climate change is to blame

July was a hot one. Any way you slice it or dice it. In the Twin Cities we ended up the 6th hottest on record (which goes back to 1873).

That puts it in the top 4% of our records. We landed just between July of 1916 and 2011 with an average temperature of 78.9 degrees (which is how we quantify months: averaging the highs and lows for the entire month). That was +4.6 deg F above the 1991-2020 (modern normal) average.

Temperatures across the state averaged +3 to +6 degrees F above normal, which is a huge amount. The standard deviation for July average temperature is just 3 degrees. Portions of northern Minnesota saw temps 2 standard deviations above normal. Dr. Mark Seeley says that it was likely the 5th or 6th warmest July on a statewide basis as well.

A quick statistical analysis shows that July temperatures have warmed 2.1 degrees over the past 50 years. That may not sound like a lot, but remember, that's most of a standard deviation increase. We can then easily say that this July's temperatures were made nearly 2.5 times more likely due to that warming.

In fact, Climate Central's Climate Shift Index, a rapid attribution analysis of daily average temperatures, shows that 9 of the 31 days in July had a Climate Shift Index of 2 or higher, meaning climate change made those temps at least twice as likely.

The days with the most obvious climate change fingerprints were July 13-14 in far northern Minnesota. That's when parts of the Boundary Waters reached 100 degrees for the first time ever recorded. Sea Gull Lake hit 101 degrees on July 13. Those temperatures were made 5 times more likely due to climate change.

With a figure that high, that means those readings were virtually impossible without the warming we've seen in recent decades.

Not to be left out, the Twin Cities hit 100 degrees on July 27. Of course, that rapid and extreme heat earlier in the month helped set the stage for fires to blow up in Ontario and northern Minnesota, which helped us set a record for the worst air quality ever measured in the state from July 15 to July 17.

We also saw near-record dew points in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota on Monday, July 27. MSP hit an 81-degree dew point, just 1 degree from the all-time record of 82. We've only had an 81-degree dew point two other years: 2011 and 1999.

Not only is our climate warming, but it's becoming more humid in summer. Prior to the 1980s, we only reached 80-degree dew points once, in 1966. All the other instances, 7 of the 8 times, have been in the modern few decades.

The other big headline is that this was likely the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.

July 2026 was definitely one for the books, not just in Minnesota, and it's likely just the first symptom of a rapidly intensifying El Niño pattern combined with a much warmer climate on Earth already.

This story was originally published by Bring Me The News on Aug 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the MN Weather section. Add Bring Me The News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.