Net zero 'unstoppable' at COP31, clean energy chief says

CANBERRA — Former Queensland Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is at COP31 this week and describes the mood as "optimistic concern". The world is unlikely to achieve some climate goals, but electrification and the renewable energy rollout is accelerating.

This year, the conference is focused on electrification, something that Australian households excel at with world-leading levels of rooftop solar. But the broader energy system has a long way to go.

Jackie Trad is now the CEO of Australia's Clean Energy Council, and speaks with Amanda Copp on the Canberra Playbook Podcast . She says the most important thing for energy security is "policy stability and bipartisanship." On home soil, the right-wing Coalition and One Nation party positions against net zero by 2050 means that's getting harder to find.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

COP31 is about to begin. What's the mood when it comes to progress around the world?

I think the mood is one of optimistic concern. We have seen quite a lot of really big strides in the transition to clean energy in a whole range of economies. But there's no hiding the fact that there's been a lot of global instability from the rise of populism. I think cost of living issues are driving consumer and voter behavior away from programs or reform that really do hit people's cost of living concerns. So I think whilst there is quite a lot happening and there's a great success story happening in Australia, there is still a lot of concern globally that we're not moving as fast as the climate and the planet needs us, but there are also some real constraints in terms of the geopolitical climate and the concerns of everyday people around real cost of living concerns.

How are you feeling personally about going over to COP? Have you ever been before? 

This is my first time to COP. It's actually not my first time in Turkey though. I was there when I was a poor backpacker many, many, many years ago. So I'm glad to be back doing some good work representing the interests of our members at the Clean Energy Council and talking about the opportunities in Australia from an investment point of view.

Given those populist and voter concerns you mentioned earlier, do you think the world is still moving in the same direction when it comes to climate change? 

There's no doubt there are headwinds, but I think the trajectory is strong and it is unstoppable. When you have significant economies like China, taking up the electrification of their economy and their everyday life, then you know it is an unstoppable trajectory.

We've seen a number of Asian countries — Taiwan, South Korea — make really big announcements around decarbonization reform agendas. So we are seeing global economies making really big investments in decarbonizing their economies, their industries and their households.

Australia is part of that story and we've got a really strong story to tell in that respect. Australians understand that renewable energy at a household level is making a real difference in cost of living pressures. They're taking up the opportunity with government assistance to really accelerate the adoption of home batteries. We're seeing this translate into real system-wide benefits.

For example, last month in October, Sydney experienced a really big heat wave just out of the blue one Monday because it's spring in Australia. A number of our coal fired generators were offline both for scheduled maintenance and unscheduled maintenance because they are old kit that need a lot of maintenance time. And because of the hundreds of thousands of household batteries in New South Wales, that actually stabilized the grid. That was during the peak demand period after work that afternoon when air conditioners and household appliances were running. So we are seeing the benefits not only in terms of everyday Australians and their cost of living pressures, but also in terms of our whole power system.

The Coalition says they're going to walk back net zero targets. How does that impact investment in Australia? 

Firstly I don't think that the federal Coalition's policy is economically sensible. The foundations haven't changed. We have got a national electricity market that is moving away quite rapidly from base load coal generation and is moving towards renewable energy. That has happened under previous federal coalition governments, who did adopt net zero support.

It's also happened under state jurisdictions as well. I was the Deputy Premier of Queensland for quite some time, where we saw an acceleration in renewable energy generation in Queensland.

States like New South Wales, which is a very big focal point for the transition, you've got Snowy 2.0 underway there. You've got a significant amount of construction happening in Renewable Energy Zones. This state has bipartisan support for net zero and it has bipartisan support for the energy road map.

So whilst at a federal level you see a lot of debate being instigated by the Coalition or One Nation, you are seeing in a number of jurisdictions real bipartisan support, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, WA and also Victoria. The Victorian election is around the corner and the next government needs to make some really big decisions about energy because the first coal fire generator will exit the system in Victoria by 2028.

How does One Nation's popularity impact the clean energy transition?

I think the whole of Australia is looking at the Victorian election to assess exactly that question. It is undoubtedly going to flavor or frame how the rest of the elections we have coming up will be considered as well.

If One Nation polls with more primary support that will have a significant impact. And if that's the case, then I think it would be hard to see how the Coalition government could govern without supply or support from One Nation members of parliament. I think that would be a terrible blow to the power stability and energy transition in Victoria. It will have a big impact on the volatility of household bills in Victoria.

The Coalition and One Nation argue the renewable energy transition is pushing up electricity prices. Have they got a point?

The energy network is being rebuilt. It's being expanded. We're needing more energy, not less. Our households, our lives, our workplaces, our schools, our hospitals are all being electrified and are using more and more energy each and every day. So demand is growing while we've got old generators that need replacement and we need to build up the network. All of that costs money.

The counterfactual to those opponents of renewable energy, is that they haven't made the case for what the replacement energy costs. So if we do replace it with more gas, that's going to be even more expensive. If we do replace it with new coal-fired generators, that's even going to be more expensive, and nobody wants to invest in coal. So the opponents to renewable energy just haven't detailed how much their alternate policies cost and how that will impact household electricity bills.

Do we have the capacity in the grid at the moment to handle those coal-fired power stations being turned off in 2028 and 2029?

We need to replace a considerable amount of generation. Between 2028 and 2029 we have three significant coal generators coming out of the system. Yallourn in Victoria, Eraring in 2029 in New South Wales, and Gladstone in regional Queensland. All three of these generators in terms of the electricity that they generate, is equivalent to the amount of electricity South Australia uses each and every year twice over. So that is quite a considerable amount of energy coming out of the system.

There is no doubt we need to continue to build out Renewable Energy Zones like South West Orana, which is under construction now. That will undoubtedly have a significant impact in replacing Eraring. We've got Snowy 2.0 coming online in 2029, and we've got a considerable amount of renewable energy projects in Victoria that are under construction, that are waiting approvals, that can be built in time to make sure that we have the energy reliability that Australians need each and every day.

So it's not a matter of whether or not we have the generation capacity. We've got a strong pipeline. We've got a lot of projects underway. Our recent half-yearly report pointed to the fact that in the first half of this year we've had more projects start construction and reach final investment decisions in 2026 than the entirety of 2025. So there's no doubt that activity is happening. We just need policy stability and bipartisanship to make sure that we can deliver these projects uninterrupted.

Renewable projects are facing significant backlash already, is it realistic even more will be approved to support data centers? 

We see it as not just a challenge, but an opportunity. Data centers are undoubtedly hungry energy consumers. In my engagement with data center developers, they have really taken on board the expectations from governments around financing and bringing their own power to ensure their own energy security.

That's something that we are working through with policy makers as well as with data centers. We think this is a great opportunity for this new economic opportunity for Australia to really work with renewable energy companies and investors to make sure that we get the sequencing right and to make sure that energy security and affordability is absolutely protected for Australians and data centers have the type of energy security and reliability that they need to conduct their business.

On the U.S. midterms results, do you think the Democrat resurgence will change the global approach to renewable energy or to climate change? 

Quite clearly I think the current president and the current administration did view the transition with great skepticism and did a reversion back to fossil fuel generated power. But with the return of the Democrats, their control of both houses, we do know that they have a very strong commitment to the energy transition and to acting on climate. They don't believe it's a hoax. They believe it's real. They believe the science and that we should be doing more.

But more importantly we've seen what happens when there is global conflict or conflict around oil. It pushes up prices. Renewable energy makes sense. It is the cheaper alternate version. And Australians are responding to that by buying EVs, by installing batteries, by putting solar panels on their rooftops. So the real question is, yes, it's good for the climate, but it's also incredibly good for cost of living and making sure that Australians and everyone has energy security and affordability that they need.