El Niño expected to shape Rhode Island's 2026-27 winter forecast
Rhode Island's 2026-27 winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is out, and El Niño is going to play a major role in what the Ocean State could see.
Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 and runs through February.
This year, the National Weather Service says the long‑range outlook calls for warmer and wetter conditions in Rhode Island due to a strengthening El Niño pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean.
Rhode Island and much of New England are expected to see some above-normal temperatures this coming winter.
National Weather Service long-range winter forecast outlook
Rhode Island's 2026-27 winter forecast is beginning to take shape.
The National Weather Service long‑range outlook for December through February 2027 points to warmer conditions across the Ocean State.
The outlook shows a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures in Rhode Island, according to the weather service's winter forecast.
There is also a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation in Rhode Island.
What is an El Niño?
NOAA defines El Niño as a rise in temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean above average for several consecutive months.
Scientists also monitor a pattern called the Walker Circulation, a "massive east‑to‑west airflow driven by temperature and pressure differences between the warm western and cool eastern Pacific," according to NOAA.
"When this circulation breaks down and warmer waters shift east toward South America, an El Niño is declared," read NOAA's description of the weather system.
It marks the start of a powerful climate pattern with global weather impacts, stronger during the winter months.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service , says every El Niño is different, with its own imprint on the weather.
"Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come," Graham said.
Current El Niño status
Rhode Island could see some big weather shifts as El Niño keeps flexing its muscles.
As of Aug. 13, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center says there's better than a 90% chance this event turns very strong heading into the fall and winter of 2026-27.
The official ENSO outlook, pulled from models across North America and abroad, shows El Niño strengthening through the end of the year.
Additionally, it has a 69% chance of becoming historic by October‑December, stronger than anything seen since the 1950s.
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: El Niño expected to shape Rhode Island's 2026-27 winter forecast
