New Winter Snow Maps Show Which Parts of the U.S. Could Get Buried

Winter is still months away, but the first detailed snowfall forecasts for 2026-2027 are beginning to paint a surprisingly divided picture across the United States.New seasonal projections analyzed by Severe Weather Europe using ECMWF and UK Met Office data point to above-normal snowfall across large portions of the central, southern, and eastern U.S. Meanwhile, some places that normally expect plenty of snow could end up with less than usual.

The maps arrive as El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. On Sept. 3, the World Meteorological Organization said the event is firmly established and is expected to reach "very strong" intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026. WMO puts the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent.

Super El Niño could create a north-south snow divide

El Niño changes atmospheric circulation and can strengthen the Pacific jet stream across the southern U.S., bringing moisture and lower-pressure systems farther south. Add enough cold air, and that combination can mean snow.The ECMWF seasonal outlook shows above-normal snowfall potential across the Southwest, Central Plains, parts of the Midwest, East, and Mid-Atlantic. California's Sierra Nevada, Utah, and the central and southern Rockies stand out for skiers. Conversely, the northern U.S. and southern Canada generally show below-normal snowfall.

That Utah signal should be welcome news for ski areas heading into the new season. Sundance Resort, for example, is opening 100 acres of new terrain this winter along with the new Electric Horseman high-speed quad. After an expansion like that, fresh snow is presumably a much nicer problem than explaining why the new lift is transporting skiers toward grass.

December could get off to a relatively slow start, according to ECMWF. January is where things become more interesting.

The January map shows above-average snowfall expanding across the central and southern Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Significant positive anomalies also appear in the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, and central Rockies. February maintains a similar southern-heavy pattern.

Two major models show a similar pattern

Perhaps the most interesting part is that ECMWF isn't alone . The UK Met Office seasonal model also forecasts a broad northern snow deficit while showing above-average snowfall across parts of the western and central U.S. Its January forecast expands that signal eastward through the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Severe Weather Europe notes an unusual degree of agreement between the two models for January.

Texas is worth watching, too. ECMWF's state-specific trend keeps snowfall around normal through December before moving above normal during January and February. That's particularly interesting after recent heavy rainfall and flash-flood concerns associated with Tropical Storm Edouard put precipitation back in the spotlight. A tropical storm and a winter seasonal forecast are very different things, but both are reminders of how much damage too much water in the wrong place can cause.

None of these maps guarantees a snow-covered winter. Seasonal forecasts show trends and anomalies rather than predicting individual storms months in advance, and even winters influenced by similarly strong El Niño events can unfold differently. Severe Weather Europe itself cautions that these are evolving trends, not fixed scenarios.

Still, two major forecasting systems are now pointing in roughly the same direction. If that pattern holds, parts of America's southern half could spend considerably more time reaching for snow shovels this winter, while some traditionally snowier places farther north may wonder where theirs went.

This story was originally published by Men's Journal on Sep 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the News section. Add Men's Journal as a Preferred Source by clicking here.