7 House seats could shift to GOP after voting rights ruling: Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Two nonpartisan election handicappers identified seven districts that could be at risk of being redrawn to favor Republicans following the Supreme Court’s Wednesday decision limiting the scope of the Voting Rights Act provision that creates majority-minority districts.

Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which is published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the court’s ruling — which deemed Louisiana’s current map an illegal racial gerrymander and ordered it be redrawn — could ultimately jeopardize all of the Democratic seats in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and South Carolina.

They said it’s unclear, however, whether those effects would play out ahead of the November midterms, noting some states would be required to move candidate filing deadlines and perhaps even primary dates.

“A new map by the GOP legislature is almost certain to result in at least one Republican pickup, though it’s unclear whether that can occur in time for the 2026 election,” Amy Walter and Matthew Klein wrote in the Cook Political Report analysis . “There are still a lot of unanswered questions swirling around this decision, especially its impact on the 2026 midterm election.”

“The decision may or may not have a major, immediate impact on 2026, but its ripple effects will be felt more deeply in subsequent elections,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in his analysis .

The handicappers identified the same seven districts that could be at risk. In Louisiana, they said, Democratic Rep. Troy Carter Sr.’s 2nd Congressional District could be targeted, alongside the 6th Congressional District, held by Rep. Cleo Fields (D), which was deemed illegal by the Supreme Court.

In Alabama, where Democrats hold two of the seven congressional districts, both Reps. Shomari Figures and Terri Sewell could be at risk if the state redrew its map.

The only Democratic representatives representing Mississippi, Tennessee and South Carolina — Rep. Bennie Thompson (Miss.), Rep. Steve Cohen (Tenn.) and Rep. James Clyburn (S.C.) — could also be on the chopping block, they said.

Both analyses stressed that the Supreme Court ruling will see its effect most acutely play out in elections beyond November, considering the uphill battle states would have to redraw maps in time for the midterms should they choose to proceed. But some, like Tennessee, and Louisiana have already signaled their intentions to push through new maps more expediently.

“It’s not clear that those states’ current GOP governors and legislators are eager to rush this process, which is likely to result in even more legal wrangling. They could instead punt until 2027, when the dust has settled and the political environment is less volatile,” Walter and Klein said.

“That said, pressure from the White House and other GOP leaders in their states may ultimately compel them to push through a new map by any means necessary before the midterms,” they continued, noting Tennessee has already called a special session to push through a new map.

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signaled Thursday that the state will move forward with redistricting ahead of the November election. The Washington Post, meanwhile, reported that Landry is expected postpone the state’s May 16 primary elections.

Kondik said the coming days will likely reveal the scope of the impact on the 2026 race.

“Everyone wants to know what impact this will have on 2026,” he wrote. “The reality is that it’s hazy — we will have to see how states actually react to the decision.”

“Given the overall redistricting environment, we would expect Republicans to push hard where they have the opportunity to do so, be it for 2026 or beyond,” Kondik added. “Expect the unexpected, and don’t assume that doors that seem closed for 2026 will remain closed. We’ll know more in the coming days as states react to this ruling.”

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