Candidates, election officials in limbo as Florida considers new map

Potential changes to Florida’s congressional lines — ones that could ultimately get tossed out or blocked — are leaving incumbents and candidates in limbo as lawmakers get ready to weigh in on an anticipated  new House map .

Lawmakers in the Sunshine State are set to convene on Tuesday for a special session over several priorities, including redistricting, as Florida represents the last opportunity for Republicans to draw new congressional districts ahead of November.

Yet, proposed lines have yet to be made public, and there’s uncertainty over whether a new map could even withstand a legal challenge given the state constitution’s clear anti-gerrymandering language.

The confusion over the state’s map means candidates may be forced to introduce themselves to new voters late in the cycle while scrambling to meet registration deadlines less than two months out from the June 12 filing deadline.

“For candidates, particularly incumbents running in competitive districts, this is just extremely unsettling,” explained former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who represented a competitive South Florida seat.

Republican incumbents “know they’re going to face headwinds in November, and a lot of them have invested a lot of time and resources into their current constituents, their existing constituents,” Curbelo said. “So, this uncertainty is just very taxing and unnerving, particularly in a challenging political climate.”

Florida lawmakers are meeting this week as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) considers new congressional lines ahead of November. The Florida governor has said that a new map is warranted, primarily for two reasons: For one, he’s argued that the state’s population has grown substantially since 2020, meaning the state should be considering a new apportionment of the districts.

He’s also said that a pending decision from the Supreme Court over the fate of the Voting Rights Act, and whether race can be considered when drawing districts, is expected to come soon.

During a rare rehearing of the case in October, the high court  appeared inclined to limit  race as a factor in redistricting. DeSantis has said the state will be required to act when that decision is made, so the state is getting ahead of the case now.

“Part of it is, we’re going to be forced to do it I think because the Supreme Court’s VRA decision is going to impact the current map, so just — no matter what else happens, that is going to have to be addressed,” DeSantis said in December.

However, the Supreme Court has not yet issued a decision in that case. And while Florida’s population has shifted since the 2020 census, the 2020 population numbers will be the only figures available for the governor and lawmakers to use when drawing a new map.

Florida Senate President Ben Albritton (R) told members in  a memo on Friday  that they were still waiting to hear from DeSantis’s office regarding redistricting — less than a week before lawmakers are set to start the special session.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who is seen as one of the more vulnerable Florida GOP incumbents and represents a South Florida seat, told reporters last week she liked her congressional lines as they are but said it would be out of her control if DeSantis wanted to change them.

Asked if she worried about whether redistricting might make her district more competitive, Salazar responded: “I worry about immigration. That’s what I worry about.” She added that she was working on an  immigration reform bill.

Democrats are also looking to oust Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who’s  under a House Ethics Committee probe for alleged campaign finance violations and sexual misconduct — accusations the lawmaker has denied. But the Central Florida Republican told The Hill last week he was not concerned about whether the new lines would make incumbents like him more vulnerable.

“I think that it’ll all be a very fair and equal and balanced approach,” Mills told The Hill about the state’s anticipated redistricting.

Some candidates, too, have suggested that potential new maps in place before November wouldn’t create too many obstacles for them.

“Whether the maps are over a zip code or not, for the most part, the people in South Florida share the same culture, the same economy,” said Michael Carbonara, an entrepreneur and Republican candidate running for Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s (D-Fla.) seat.

“And the lines, whether they change, I don’t see that being a drastic change in the people that we’re representing and the values that they have,” he added.

Uncertainty over the maps has left candidates, incumbents, state parties, voters and election officials all in a wait-and-see mindset. But officials and party leaders stress that they’re prepared for whatever happens.

Lake County Supervisor of Elections Alan Hays, a Republican who’s previously served in both chambers of the Florida Legislature, wasn’t expecting many changes to Central Florida, but he said that he and his team would be prepared for whatever changes are made that impact the county.

“I prefer to just play it calm and cool, and then when the changes occur, we will follow the statutes,” Hays told The Hill. “That’s all we do, is we follow the law and … let the results speak for themselves.”

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told The Hill that even if the state redistricts, the state party has been conducting voter-outreach efforts for months.

“We have already been in contact with millions of voters across the state, 5 million-plus last year, another couple million already this year,” Fried said. “So because of our year-round organizing, we are able to quickly get messaging out to the people, to be knocking on doors, making phone calls.”

But election officials also acknowledge that one of the byproducts of redistricting is that it puts a strain on county resources and can confuse voters on which candidate they’re expecting to vote for. That’s not to mention making sure ballots are printed out and ready for voters.

“They get a Sharpie and they draw a line, but I’m dealing with real people,” Osceola County Supervisor of Elections Mary Jane Arrington, a Democrat, said at an “Engage in the Community” event hosted by Central Florida Public Media  earlier this month . “And I have to move voters into new precincts, reprecinct, find new polling locations, and then I have to notify the voters.”

“I don’t think anyone has even considered the cost of this, not only to local governments through the supervisor of elections, but the cost of the special session and all of that,” she said at the event.

Local and state party leaders say they feel the downstream effects of redistricting and educating their voters, too.

“The onus is on us to make sure that we communicate with our voters, but that comes with an expense, that comes with stress and confusion, and it also results in distrust in their government to change the lines and to rig this process,” said Jarred Cornell, the interim chair of the Orange County Democratic Party.

Despite the confusion over the new maps, it’s not unlikely that new congressional lines passed by the state Legislature could be thrown out or put on hold before November — keeping the House map as-is.

Florida GOP Chair Evan Powers told The Hill the party was “prepared for anything.”

“I always joke that I’m prepared to run under any set of rules at any given time.”

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