BANGKOK –Thailand’s property market has dropped to its weakest level in seven years. Fewer homes are changing hands, and total sales values have slid after months of slow demand. High household debt, stricter bank lending, and weaker buying power have all helped push the market down.
Numbers from 2025 show a steep fall in property transfers nationwide, extending earlier declines that took activity back to around 2018-2019 levels. Some analysts call this one of the sharpest housing downturns since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and developers are now adjusting plans to get through 2026.
Figures from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) and property consultancies point to a broad drop in residential transfers during 2025. New home sales fell hard, with some reports showing a decline of up to 49% in the first half of the year. In Bangkok and nearby provinces, transfers were down by about 15% over the first eight months compared with 2024.
Developer-built homes also slipped, with new-build transfers falling by as much as 20% in some segments. This followed the pattern set in 2023, when transfers dropped by around 15% and signalled a seven-year low in deal volumes. Unsold stock kept rising, especially in condominiums, with Greater Bangkok ending recent periods with more than 235,000 unsold units, the highest level since 2018.
Oversupply Weighs Most on Luxury Homes and Condos
Market watchers say oversupply is hitting the top end of the market and high-rise condos the hardest. Bangkok has a large pipeline of condominium units, and sales aren’t keeping pace. Developers have been cautious with new launches, but that hasn’t fixed slow take-up across many projects.
Across Thailand, unsold condominium stock remains high, and some estimates suggest the problem runs deeper in mid-to-upper price brackets. As a result, price cuts, discounts, and buyer perks have become common as firms try to clear completed units.
Even with the wider slowdown, a few pockets are holding up better. Tourist and expat hubs such as Phuket still draw overseas buyers. Condo transfers there have stayed steady, and some forecasts still point to 8-10% yearly price growth through 2026, linked to longer stays, lifestyle demand, and international schools.
Bangkok’s high-rise market, though, has faced extra pressure from buyer caution. Confidence took another hit after seismic events in 2025 damaged some buildings, adding to worries about safety and long-term value.
Stimulus Helps a Little, But It Hasn’t Shifted the Trend
To ease the downturn, the government and regulators rolled out temporary support measures that run through mid-2026. The Bank of Thailand loosened loan-to-value (LTV) rules, allowing up to 100% financing for some purchases.
The government also cut property transfer fees from 2% to 0.01% and mortgage registration fees from 1% to 0.01% for homes priced up to 7 million baht. Another step includes a 50% cut in land and building tax for 2026, meant to reduce holding costs and encourage deals.
So far, the support has helped the market steady a little, but it hasn’t sparked a strong rebound. Outlooks for 2026 stay cautious. Some forecasts still expect a further drop, though at a slower pace, around 6% in certain projections. Developers are also pulling back on big launches to reduce risk. New condo supply in Bangkok is expected to fall below 40,000 units in 2026, well under past norms.
Developers Shift Away From One-Size-Fits-All Projects
Many industry voices now say the mass-market approach no longer works. They expect the adjustment to last another 2-3 years, and they want developers to focus on niche strategiesinstead of chasing volume.
That means building for clear demand, with the right product in the right place. Some developers are aiming at higher-income buyers, with prime locations, larger layouts, and stronger add-ons that support day-to-day living. Others are looking more seriously at regional cities, leasehold formats for foreign buyers, and tighter financial control rather than rapid expansion.
Poomipak Julmanichoti, chief strategy officer at Sansiri, has pointed to reforms such as 99-year leaseholds to lift longer-term investment. Other commentators highlight sharper targeting across buyer groups, prioritising real end-users like working professionals and expatriates, rather than buyers who plan to flip units. Larger firms with strong balance sheets are expected to cope better, while smaller developers face higher liquidity pressure.
Recovery Could Start Slowly, But The Risks Stay
Thailand’s wider economy is adding pressure. GDP growth forecasts for 2026 sit around 1.6-1.7%, below earlier hopes. Household debt remains high at roughly 88-89% of GDP, limiting how much people can borrow. Mortgage rejection rates have climbed to record levels in some reports, with lower-priced homes often hit the hardest. Tourism and infrastructure spending may support confidence over time, but the market still faces structural problems.
With activity near the bottom, 2026 could bring the start of a small recovery, but it may take time. Buyers have more choice and more power to negotiate, with deals and incentives common in oversupplied areas. For developers, the message is simple: build less, build smarter, and avoid adding stock where demand is weak.
Thailand’s property market is at a turning point. The headwinds are real, but clear targeting and disciplined supply could help the sector stabilise over the next few years.
