株と釣り

株と釣り

PR

×

Calendar

Archives

2026.06
2026.05
2026.04
2026.03
2026.02
2026.01
2025.12
2025.11
2025.10
2025.09

Keyword Search

▼キーワード検索

2008.11.21
XML
カテゴリ:

5713別子は自社株買いを発表。

買ってみた。

5706三井金属も買ってみた。

NYに上場しているランドゴールドが昨夜は2%強の上昇。これをみて強気で産金株を買った。

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOLD

興味深い。↓

More on Gold and the Reflation of Assets

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7405.html

Also consider George Soros' recent proposal for a new monetary system involving the Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs , at the IMF: Currencies would be devalued ... then repegged to each other and to SDRs ... and then SDRs would be circulated as an international currency.

For Soros' proposal to work, though, it's my opinion that gold would have to play some sort of role.

Given the importance of all this and the high probability that some tinkering by the G-20 is already in the works, I'd like to elaborate a bit more on the subject, and then answer some questions I've received.

Point #1: It's simple: If current efforts to prevent a debt-deflationary spiral and depression won't be effective, central banks and governments around the world have the ability to change the rules of the game.

Or as I put it in last week's Money and Markets column, " if they can't print money fast enough, they can resort to changing the value of the money (devaluing)."

History is squarely on my side here. I've already explained to you how Roosevelt did it. But now take a look at other historical precedents in the table I have for you today.

It proves, unequivocally, that devaluations work, and that devaluations can occur simultaneously across countries.

How the Gold Standard and Currency Devaluations Affected Different Countries During the Great Depression
Country
Left Gold Standard (MM/YY)
Devalued Currency (MM/YY)
Industrial Production Bottomed
Australia
12/29
3/30
1930
New Zealand
9/31
4/30
1930
Austria
4/33
9/31
1931
Finland
10/31
10/31
1931
Japan
12/31
12/31
1931
Norway
9/31
9/31
1931
UK
9/31
9/31
1931
Sweden
9/31
9/31
1932
Canada
10/31
9/31
1932
Denmark
9/31
9/31
1932
Greece
4/32
4/32
1932
U.S.
3/33
4/33
1932
France
-
10/36
1935
Netherlands
-
10/36
1935
Czech
-
2/34
1935
Poland
-
10/36
1935
Belgium
-
3/35
1936
Italy
-
10/36
1936

Note the 12 countries that either came completely off the gold standard or devalued their currencies by 1933 (via raising the price of gold): All of them came out of the Depression almost immediately.

Point #2: For multiple currencies to be simultaneously devalued to help reflate assets, a benchmark must become part of the system.

My view: Ironically, after years of panning it, leasing it, loaning it out, and even selling it - gold will have to play some sort of role in the new monetary system (although as I noted last week, it need not be confiscated).

Point #3: Gold, whether it's directly or indirectly part of a new monetary system or not - is extremely undervalued.

At its current price of about $735 , in today's dollars gold is 67% cheaper than it was in 1980. For gold to reach its 1980 high in today's dollars, it would have to trade at $2,270 an ounce.

And as I pointed out last week, if there's even the slightest role for gold in a new monetary system, it can trade even higher - I figure as high as $5,100 an ounce , which would be the equivalent of monetizing about 10% of the massive $53 trillion of debts in the U.S.

            

                                                






お気に入りの記事を「いいね!」で応援しよう

Last updated  2008.11.21 17:29:24
[株] カテゴリの最新記事


【毎日開催】
15記事にいいね!で1ポイント
10秒滞在
いいね! -- / --
おめでとうございます!
ミッションを達成しました。
※「ポイントを獲得する」ボタンを押すと広告が表示されます。
x
X

© Rakuten Group, Inc.
X
Create a Mobile Website
スマートフォン版を閲覧 | PC版を閲覧
Share by: