Walk in the Spirit

こちらは、Pragmatic Capitalism/ IS THE EXTREME BULLISHNESS CAUSE FOR CONCERN? 　26 Dec 2010 から、

Sentiment readings were very bullish across a range of indicators this week. To begin, Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment had its highest percentage of bulls (58.8) since the October 2007 market top.

IIAのプロ投資家（アドバイザー）動向サーベイによれば、
現在の買いの強さのレベルは2007ピークに匹敵、

下記は上から、
SP500、買い比率、売り比率、その比の順、

買い比率58.8で、既に警戒レベルに達している、
（あと個人投資家、マネーマネージャーのチャートもあるが似たり寄ったり、）

こちらはBespoke/ Bullish Sentiment Reaches Historical Extremes Dec 23, 2010 で、もう少し長めで見る、

This week’s surveys of bullish sentiment from Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the ninth highest combined reading since 1987, and it was the sixth period ever where the combined reading was above 120%. One place where the holiday spirit is not in short supply is the equity market.

IIとAAIIのサーベイの結果を組み合わせたところ、 1987からの結果で、強気（買い）のセンチメントは

9番目のレベルとなり、
やっぱ歴史的高さにあると、

但し、 Pragmatic Capitalism いわく、

While high levels of bullish sentiment among advisors, investors, and money managers usually occur at market tops, market tops do not always occur when sentiment is very bullish. Sometimes people respond to the obvious and correctly align their market posture with the price trend. In situations like this we have to wonder whether or not they are wrong.
Bottom Line: An excess of bullish sentiment is a caution sign and should cause concern because such sentiment peaks are often followed by price corrections, if not bull market tops; however, we do not use sentiment as a timing tool, just a indicator to help paint a picture of the market environment. So far we have no indication from our trend-following models that there are major problems ahead.
センチメントのピークはプライスコレクションが起こりやすく、常に警戒しなければならない、

しかし必ず何かが起こると言うわけではない、
少なくとも今のところマーケットでは問題は見えていない、