Are 300-Game Winners Becoming Extinct?

Since the beginning of last August when Tom Glavine became baseball’s 23 ^rd 300-game winner, baseball writers and bloggers have debated whether the 300-game winner had grown extinct with Glavine’s 300 ^th win. While awaiting the decision from the Fish and Wildlife Services on whether Glavine’s name should join the endangered species list right between the gibbon and the tidewater goby, I decided to take a closer look at the state of the 300-gam e winner in baseball.

Is It Too Soon To Declare The End Of The 300-Game Winner?

Pulling the plug on the 300-game winner seems to be the popular opinion amongst writers and bloggers and who can blame them. Today’s pitcher rests more thanks to the 5-man rotation, gets pulled earlier and wins less games on a yearly basis than his previous counterparts. There hasn’t been a 25-game winner since Bob Welch won 27 in 1990. In 2006, there was not a 20-game winner for the first time in a year not affected by a work stoppage in the history of baseball (unless you count 1871 when Al Spalding won 19 games while starting all 31 games for the Boston Red Stockings). The average of the top 10 winningest pitchers in the majors also reached a non-stoppage low of 17.2 in ’06 as well.

In addition to the decrease in 20-game winners and the overall win totals of starting pitchers in general, the 5-man rotation, a manager’s propensity to go to the bullpen early, fewer complete games leading to more no decisions and pitchers starting their career later are just a sampling of the arguments put forth when declaring the eventual demise of the 300-game winner. Even the lack of dynasties in the sport and the growth of pitcher’s salaries have been thrown out as a possible threat. One of the group’s members has declared the end of the 300-game winner species. Last year, in an AP story, Tom Seaver said “The way the game has changed, I think we’re pretty close to it.”

While the arguments look good initially, with a deeper look inside the numbers, these are more fact than fiction. Let’s start with the discussion of 20-game winners. While 2006 is an indicator that 20-game winners are a dying breed, accomplishing the feat of winning 20 games has not always been the measuring stick for accomplishing the 300 win milestone. Of the 11 post-war 300-game winners, Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddux won 20 games twice in their career and Don Sutton only accomplished the feat once. Meanwhile, Jim Palmer hit the 20 win mark in eight of his 19 seasons played but finished his career with 268 wins.

The 5-man rotation is another factor that those declaring the 300-win club capped at 23. It’s obvious the 5-man rotation has gradually impacted the number of starts a pitcher gets. There hasn’t been a pitcher that has started more than 37 games in 20 years (Charlie Hough in 1987). Immediately, Glavine himself comes to mind when addressing this concern. When Hough started 40 games, Glavine was just a rookie with the Braves, starting in just nine games and going 2-4. In his next 20 seasons, Glavine only reached 36 starts in three seasons and didn’t even eclipse the 200 innings plateau in six of those seasons.

The fact that pitchers are getting a later start in the majors (especially starting pitchers) is yet another factor pointed toward. In 2003, the USA Today ran an article speculating that after Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, we may never see another 300-game winner. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan attributed pitchers not getting to the majors at a young enough age to his comment that “the 300-game winner could very well be extinct.” But is this comment representative of the truth? The average age of the post-war 300-game winners is 20.9. This is skewed by Nolan Ryan and Early Wynn who both debuted at age 19 but failed to notch a win until they were 21. Steve Carlton debuted at age 20 but didn’t get his first win until his second season when he notched a total of three wins. Warren Spahn debuted at age 21 but his major league career was interrupted by World War II and didn’t notch his first win until he was 25. Adjusting for this takes the average age to 22.8. In 2007, 45 players notched their first start in the majors at an average age of 23.4, just six months later than the 300-game winner’s average.

Keep Hope Alive: A Case For More 300-Game Winners To Come

Without a doubt, the reasons why there may never be a 300-game winner again are numerous and, in some cases, convincing. On the other hand, there are a number of factors consistent amongst the 300-game winners that are still found amongst today’s pitchers.

1. Longevity
Of the 11 post-war 300-game winners, all 11 pitchers pitched for at least 20 years and into their 40s. Only two of the 11 were able to accomplish before they turned 40 (Carlton and Maddux). Some of the factors previously mentioned as deterrents to the player accomplishing the feat of 300 wins in a career actually work in today’s pitcher’s favor. The 5-man rotation, less innings pitched and stricter pitch counts all contribute to extending the pitcher’s career. In addition, conditioning in all sports continues to improve and players are playing later and later. The last time there wasn’t a player at least 43 years old in the majors was in 1999.

2. 13-15 Wins Per Season
Another consistency amongst the post-war pitchers to achieve this milestone is roughly 14 wins per season. Only Spahn (17.3), Maddux (15.8) and Seaver (15.6) averaged more than 15 wins per season played and Ryan accomplished the feat averaging just 12 wins per season.

3. 100-Win And 200-Win Milestone Achievement
No one has ever won 300 games without winning 100 games within their first 10 seasons in the league and without winning 200 games within their first 16 seasons. This sounds fairly obvious but it is a key indicator of whether a player is on track to achieve the benchmark.

4. Single Season Category Leader In Key Statistic
Of the 11 300-game winners, only two players have failed to led their league once in each of the following categories:
– ERA (Gaylord Perry, Glavine)
– Wins (Ryan, Sutton)
– Games Started (Ryan, Seaver)
– Complete Games (Sutton, Wynn)

Another indicator is shutouts. Only Phil Niekro was able to accomplish 300 wins without leading his league in shutouts for at least one season. None of the 11 post-war players who have achieved 300 wins have done it without being a single-season leader in three of those five categories.

The Progression Of The 300-Win Club

Another area I looked at when going through the history of the 300 win club is how many active pitchers were 300-game winners during each season. From 1928 to 1961, the number of active 300-game winners never reached higher than two. With the debut of Gaylord Perry in 1962, a third 300-game winner became active. From 1962 on, that number gradually increased until it leveled off at six in 1968. There was a small spike in 1986 & 1987 when seven active 300-game winners were in the league and then the decline began.

However, these numbers are still fluid as there are a number of pitchers that could still achieve the 300-win mark and change the counts. As the graph indicates, the number of active 300-game winners progresses very similarly to the number of teams in the league. If history is an indicator, one can hypothesize that there are currently 3-5 active pitchers that have not achieved 300 wins but still will accomplish the feat. Is the golden age of 300-game winners over? With the high win totals of the ‘70s, it is likely that we may never see a decade like the ‘80s where 5 pitchers joined the 300 win club but the 300-game winner is far from extinct.

Who’s Next? Part I

At the end of 2007, there were 9 active pitchers that have cracked the 200-win mark but have failed to join this illustrious group. (Next week we’ll speculate on the 26 pitchers who have hit the 100-win mark)

Links: Two Breakdowns Of Active 200-Game Winners vs. Their 300-Win Counterparts

Randy Johnson (284-150, .654, Age 44)

People have been counting out Randy Johnson for years. He’s everything those declaring 300-game winners extinct are claiming will prevent it from ever happening again. He got a late start on his career (his debut was at age 23). He is a product of the 5-man rotation and never started more than 35 games in a season. He didn’t hit 100 wins until his 9 ^th season at age 32. The only player to achieve 300 wins and reach 100 wins at a later age was Niekro, and Johnson’s pitching style couldn’t differ further from Niekro. Since hitting 100 wins, Johnson went on a tear until being sidelined by a knee injury and then a back injury that almost ended his career. Johnson is throwing again and signs are positive so far. He meets the criteria put forth earlier as 2008 will be his 21 ^st season pitching in the majors, averaging 14.2 wins per season and accomplishing the 100 & 200 win milestones within the targets that have shown to be necessary to accomplish the feat. And as far as single season accomplishments, Johnson led the league in all five key statistical categories at least once. Whether “The Big Unit” hits 300 at this point comes down to his ability to return from his back injury. He failed once but he wants the milestone. In a recent New York Times story, Johnson acknowledged that the 300-win milestone was the fuel that kept him going. “It’s staring me in the face,” he said in the article.

Mike Mussina (250-144, .635, Age 39)

Mussina is 50 wins away but may be a longer shot than Johnson. The bigger debate for Mussina will probably be does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Mussina will have to pitch into his 40s and over 20 years to get to the 300-win mark as he enters his 18 ^th season in the majors, and will need at least three seasons to accomplish the feat (he’s averaged 14.7 wins per season). Mussina has been on pace his entire career: he was past 100 wins at the end of his 7 ^th season and past 200 wins at the end of his 14 ^th season. Pitching for the Yankees has not hurt him as he’s never led the American League in ERA despite his lifetime .635 winning percentage. At this point, though, desire and health are the biggest factors. While it is difficult to speculate on injuries, Mussina’s desire could be what derails him. In the previously mentioned AP article, Mussina was asked about the milestone when he was at 244 wins. Mussina said, “50-something to go. No, I don’t think I’m going to play that long.”

David Wells (239-157, .604, Age 45)

Wells, a free agent who still has the desire to pitch, just can’t seem to land a job. Even if Wells does get a shot to try-out, he’d probably have to pitch into his 50s since he’s averaged just 11.4 wins per season. Only Satchel Paige in 1965 has ever accomplished that feat when he pitched three scoreless innings for the Kansas City Athletics in his only appearance at age 56. Wells might not even break the 250 threshold.

Jamie Moyer (230-178, .564, Age 45)

Unlike Wells, Moyer currently has a spot in the majors. Right now, Moyer is slated to be the Phillies #3 starter and was able to notch 14 wins in 2007 despite a 5.01 ERA. His starts have been consistent. Since turning 33, Moyer has started at least 30 games in 11 of his 12 seasons. Despite his opportunity and improbable success last season, Moyer has even longer to go than Wells, averaging just 11.0 wins per season. Furthermore, Moyer has never led the league in any of the key statistical areas. Maybe 250 wins for Moyer, but it’s a safe bet that Moyer will not make it to the 300-win club.

Curt Schilling (216-146, .597, Age 41)

Schilling is injured and may never pitch again. Even without the injury, Schilling still would have been a long shot. Of the nine players that have reached 200 wins, Schilling’s wins per season are the lowest (and that list includes John Smoltz who spent 4 seasons in the bullpen). He didn’t hit 100 wins until his 13 ^th season in the league and has never led the league in ERA or shutouts. The real question with Schilling is will he play again?

Kenny Rogers (210-143, .595, Age 43)

If I wrote this at the end of the 2006 season, I might have given Rogers a small window of opportunity to make this club. At the end of ’06, Rogers became the first pitcher since Christy Mathewson to have three scoreless starts in a postseason and finished up 2006 with 17 wins, the 4 ^th most wins by a pitcher at the age of 41. Rogers was sidetracked in ’07 and will return in ’08 with the burning question being can Rogers contribute enough to help the Tigers back to the World Series? At just 11.1 wins per season, Rogers would have to pitch at least nine more seasons to join the group. Not going to happen.

Pedro Martinez (209-93, .692, Age 36)

Of the active 200-game winners, no one has dominated the game like Martinez. Not sold? Martinez has the 3 ^rd highest winning % in the history of the major leagues at .692. Only Al Spalding (.796) and Spud Chandler (.717) are higher. In addition, Martinez is the only active pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 at 2.80. At just 36, he was at the 100-wins mark in his 8 ^th season and eclipsed 200 wins in his 15 ^th season. He’s led the league in every key statistical area including ERA, which he led five times. But Martinez has been sidelined with injuries off and on in the past two seasons. He’s gone just 12-9 in 28 starts in 2006 & 2007 which has brought his wins per season average down to 13.1. If Martinez gets back to form, he can easily accomplish this feat but that’s a tall order from a pitcher who has never collected more than 33 starts in a season. At his current winning percentage, he would have to notch 132 decisions which would take roughly 166 starts. Even if he remains 100% healthy, that’s six more years out of Martinez. It’s difficult to see Martinez pitching 22 seasons and well into his 40s. It’s even more difficult to see Martinez remaining healthy for seven more seasons. As Pedro will most likely fall short of the 300- win mark, the real debate will begin on whether the three-time Cy Young winner and eight-time All-Star has done enough to get into the Hall of Fame.

John Smoltz (207-145, .588, Age 40)

Smoltz will turn 41 in May. Only one pitcher has accomplished what Smoltz would need to do to make the 300-win club. After turning 41, Phil Niekro notched 100 additional wins in his long career. After Niekro, the next most in the post-war era of baseball is Ryan at 63 wins. Only four pitchers have been able to achieve more than 50 wins after age 41. Thanks to his four seasons in the bullpen (where he registered 153 saves), Smoltz’ wins per season is only 10.9. Even if you factor those seasons out, Smoltz still only averaged 13 wins per season. If he were able to average 13 wins per season, Smoltz would be pitching on his 48 ^th birthday in 2015 to make the milestone. He has led the league in only two of the five key statistical areas and didn’t reach 200 wins until his 19 ^th season. Unless he maintains a pace seen only once before, Smoltz looks destined to fall well short of the 300 mark. Instead, Smoltz will have settle on being the only pitcher to achieve 200 wins and 100 saves in a career.

Andy Pettitte (201-113, .640, Age 35)

Pettitte’s name rarely hits the radar when discussing potential 300-game winners but he has already overcome two of the four benchmarks in his career. Pettitte reached 100 wins in just six seasons. Of the post-war 300-game winners, only Seaver reached 100 wins that quickly. Last season, Pettitte eclipsed 200 wins. Only Seaver and Spahn did it faster and Maddux and Sutton were able to do it as fast. Currently, Pettitte is averaging 15.1 wins per season which is well ahead of most of the per season averages of the 300-game winners. But will Pettitte pitch long enough? There are rumors of Pettitte talking retirement dating back to 2003. The frenzy swirling around his HGH use and relationship to Roger Clemens would point toward likelihood for Pettitte to walk away sooner rather than later. At this point, it’s too soon to tell and it is easy to make a case either way but I am not willing to count Pettitte out. Remember, Pettitte has won at least 12 games in 12 of his 13 seasons in the majors.

Next week, the active 100-game winners will be the focus and just how many more 300-game winners can we expect to see. Send questions or comments to bjoseph22@comcast.net