Climbing the Ladder with the American League Central

Pitching and Hitting puts 2008 Tribe back on the Warpath

2007 Recap

The American League Central is one of the strongest divisions in all of baseball. In the beginning of 2007, all but the Kansas City Royals seemed to have a chance to win the division. At the end of April, the Indians led the division with the Tigers and Twins each a game and a half out of the lead with the White Sox at two and a half games back. As the season went on, the Tigers and Indians began to pull away from the pack and after recovering from a bad July, the Indians took the lead in mid August and never looked back. It was speculated during the mid-summer months that whoever didn’t win the division in the AL Central would easily wrap up the wild card. This speculation proved to be inaccurate due to some extraordinary second half baseball from the Yankees and Mariners. The Tigers ended up finishing a full six games out of the wild card race and eight games out in the American League Central. Sabathia and Carmona pitched the Indians to their first division title since 2001, but their combined 456 innings pitched left them tired and ineffective against the Boston Red Sox in the American League Championship Series.

2008 Predications

The 2008 season seems to look like it will pick up right where the 2007 season left off, with a tight race between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians. I predict the Indians edging out the Tigers for the divisional title with the Tigers wrapping up the wild card spot. The Tigers have a murderers row lineup that may be the best in baseball but the Indians have the pitching and in baseball good pitching beats good hitting. The Twins and White Sox should lock up the number three and four spots, respectively, with the improving (but not yet there) Royals finishing last.

2008 Team Previews

Cleveland Indians

Projected 1 ^st place AL Central; 94-68

The Cleveland pitching staff posted the third best AL ERA, had the fewest walks and led the league in innings pitched in 2007. The Indians will ride its pitching staff all the way to the post season in 2008. After a disappointing 2007, look for Travis Hafner to bounce back and improve upon an already impressive Cleveland offense lead by Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. With almost every core player from 2007 returning in 2008 and the strongest pitching depth in the Central Division, the Indians look to be the favorite to win the Central. The biggest weakness of the team is its closer Joe Borowski, who despite posting 45 saves in 2007 did so with an ERA over 5.00. It’s a mystery why Borowski was brought back to close for the Indians again in 2008, but look to see him lose the job if he starts losing games for the team in the 9 ^th .

Detroit Tigers

Projected 2 ^nd place AL Central; 90-72

With the acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrerra, and Jacque Jones, Detroit looks to have the strongest offense in the major leagues. The Tigers will have seven former all-stars on their roster to complement Curtis Granderson, who in 2007 became only the third player in MLB history to have 20 doubles, triples, homeruns and stolen bases in a season. The only major league ready player the Tigers lost coming into the 2008 season was left handed pitcher Andrew Miller. Detroit’s biggest question this year looks to be: pitchers not named Justin Verlander and a line up comprised of the oldest offense in the American League. Older players have a higher risk of becoming injured and their skills often begin to decline after age 27. If something were to happen to any of the veterans on this team, its offense could easily go from spectacular to ordinary. Detroit’s farm system was reduced to bare bones by its off season moves, and the choice to move its talent for young established players has left the franchise vulnerable due to its lack of depth. The majority of major league teams have lost playing time by their starters to injury. It can only be expected that it will happen more so in Detroit than anywhere else. The team has already lost Granderson for at least the first week of the season to a broken finger and he was one of the youngsters on the team. Injury risk and the potential of sharply declining skills are the main reason I can expect Detroit to finish second in the American League Central.

Minnesota Twins

Projected 3 ^rd place AL Central; 80-82

The Minnesota Twins were knocked down to the middle of the pack in the American League Central with the departure of Carlos Silva, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and superstars Tori Hunter and Johan Santana. The teams inability to score runs will be an issue again in 2008 and it appears they have officially entered a rebuilding stage. With Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Fancisco Liriano and a ton of young pitching talent still within the organization, the rebuilding may not take as long as it would for any other team. The Twins have strength to deal from and you would expect to see them heavily involved in the trade market. Look to see them using some of that pitching to acquire a young power bat sometime in the near future. It seems that a division title is a bit out of reach for the 2008 Twins; instead look for a battle to maintain a .500 record.

Chicago White Sox

Projected 4 ^th Place AL Central; 74-88

The Chicago White Sox’s time in the spotlight has passed. This was never more apparent than when the team lost 90 games for the first time since 1989, only a year after winning the World Series. The White Sox can expect to have a similar season in 2008, largely due to their inability to make a major off season move. Chicago was rumored to be heavily involved in the Miguel Cabrera hunt but when spring training started, the only Cabrera to report to camp was Orlando. There aren’t many areas of strength with the White Sox, however the addition of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher should immediately improve the offense, while Scott Linebrink should help bridge the gap to Chicago’s closer, Bobby Jenks. Chicago’s front of the line starters, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez, are solid but there’s not much after that in terms of pitching. 2008 looks to be another disappointing season for the Chicago White Sox as they remain the other team in Chicago for another year.

Kansas City Royals

Projected 5 ^th Place AL Central; 73-89

There are few teams in Major League Baseball who can lose their RBI leader and be a better team for doing so. This is true of the Kansas City Royals. Growing pains are to be expected as the teams’ youngsters mature and become better ball players. Look for the Royals to have a similar year to their 2007 season with Jose Guillen being the difference maker in either adding to the team’s improvement or causing it to regress. I think 2008 will be the last of a long consecutive string of seasons in which the Royals have finished in last place, but it will depend largely on how much Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Mark Teahan can improve over the course of the year. As Kansas City improves, the likelihood of big name free agents signing with the club does as well. Look for the Royals to land a slugger after the seasons ends.