(Over) Analyzing April

In our first history lesson, we learned that the Tigers were not dead . Now, in a look back at standings of the past, a number of conclusions can be drawn based on what we’ve seen so far in the ’08 season.

Before we get to the conclusions, let’s take a look at what history tells us about April. The first thing one can learn by looking at the win-loss records of the teams that have made the playoffs since 1903 is that the teams that end up making the playoffs will have a combined winning percentage extremely similar to their combined April winning percentages. Playoff teams from ’03-’07 had a combined record of 31776-20663 (.606) and a combined April record of 3258-2190 (.598).

What does that mean? On the surface, it means nothing. However, if you take a look at a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks who went 20-8 through April and assume that they will continue to play well enough to make the postseason, then a team that finished sub-.500 is destined to counter-balance the Diamondbacks strong April performance by also making the playoffs. This has been a consistent trend even with the expansion of the number of teams making the playoffs. Take a look:

That is assuming the Arizona Diamondbacks make the playoffs. A winning percentage above .700 going into May does not guarantee a trip to the postseason. Most recently, the ’06 White Sox were 17-7 (.708) at the end of April and failed to make the postseason.

History tells us that at least one team with a .500 record or less will make the postseason and it is more likely two teams will. Since the addition of the Wild Card, 11 of the 13 seasons have had at least 1 team with a .500 or less record through April go to the postseason. Only 1998 and 2004 had every team that made the playoffs show a winning record in April. In addition, before 1995, roughly 1 in 4 playoff teams posted a .500 or less record through April. Here are those numbers:

Finally, where a team is in relation to a playoff spot “if the season ended” at the end of April, does not guarantee anyone a spot in the postseason but it sure does improve a team’s chances. Here’s a look at where the teams that made the postseason in relation to where they were in the standings at the end of April:

Now, let’s fast forward back to ’08. Here were the standings when the games of April 30 ^th ended:

With what we know about history, we can group the teams into three groupings:

Group I contains 10 teams and history tells us that 4 of those teams should make the postseason. Thanks to their April performances, these teams have a 1 in 2.5 chance to make the playoffs. These are teams within a half game of a playoff spot:

Arizona Diamondbacks (20-8)
Chicago Cubs (17-10)
St. Louis Cardinals (18-11)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18-11)
Boston Red Sox (17-12)
Oakland Athletics (17-12)
Florida Marlins (15-12)
New York Mets (14-12)
Chicago White Sox (14-12)
Philadelphia Phillies (15-13)

Group II contains 7 teams and history shows that 2 of those teams should get their tickets punched for more baseball in October. Their April performances have kept them within 2 ½ games of the playoffs and they have a 1 in 3.5 chance to make the playoffs:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (15-12)
Baltimore Orioles (15-12)
Milwaukee Brewers (15-12)
Minnesota Twins (13-14)
Cleveland Indians (13-15)
Detroit Tigers (13-15)
Kansas City Royals (12-15)

Group III is the largest group with 13 teams. These are the long shots of the bunch with 2 of these 13 teams historically destined for the playoffs. These teams are hoping to continue the trend of half of the teams making the postseason having losing records through April that has been present for the past two seasons. They have a 1 in 6.5 chance to make the playoffs and only one of the teams has a winning record:

Los Angeles Dodgers (14-13)
New York Yankees (14-15)
Seattle Mariners (13-15)
Houston Astros (13-16)
San Francisco Giants (13-16)
Atlanta Braves (12-15)
Cincinnati Reds (12-17)
Pittsburgh Pirates (11-16)
Colorado Rockies (11-17)
San Diego Padres (11-17)
Toronto Blue Jays (11-17)
Washington Nationals (11-17)
Texas Rangers (10-18)

Now that we’ve ironed out the details, here are 7 ridiculously overanalyzed conclusions that we can draw about what is about to unfold in the ’08 season:

1. The Braves will not win the N.L. East.Forget the fact that John Smoltz and Mike Hampton are on the DL and Tom Glavine has spent some time there as well. The team that wins the N.L. East has had a winning record 83% of the time since it was created in 1969. That’s 6% higher than the major league average.

2. A playoff drought of 10+ years is coming to a close.The Rays, Orioles, Brewers and Royals make up more than half of Group II. With 1 in 3.5 teams getting in from Group II, one of these teams should be seeing postseason playing time for the first time in a decade. It is also highly unlikely that two teams with losing records will find their way in from this group which means that the either the Rays, Orioles and Brewers should be headed to the postseason.

3. The Dodgers are in.
If statistical trends play out, then one team from Group III should be a team with a winning record and the ONLY team in Group III with a winning record is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

4. Somebody from Chicago will be home watching the playoffs. (Maybe both teams!)
It will either be Lou Piniella or Ozzie Guillen blowing up about the way his team didn’t deliver down the stretch. With all four teams from Group II that have losing records being from the A.L. Central and one of those expected to be heading to the playoffs, it is more likely the White Sox will be on the outside looking in.

5. The Rockies are out.
Of the 15 teams that have made it to the playoffs after being out 5 ½ games or more, only 2 have made it to the playoffs a 2 ^nd straight year. Last year, the Rockies were 5 ½ out but made an amazing run to make the postseason. In addition to that, they are now 6 ½ out going into May and the two teams that returned to the playoffs (’01-’02 Athletics and ’42-’43 Cardinals) did not do it by being further out the following year at the end of April.

6. The Angels, Red Sox, Diamondbacks and Indians are roughly 50-50 in making it to the playoffs.
From ’95-’06, there were 55 teams that made the playoffs in the previous season that were projected to make the playoffs at the end of April during their latest seasons. Of those 55 teams, 28 of them have made it to the playoffs the following season.

7. A team with a losing record will win the N.L. Central.
Sorry Cubs and Cardinals fans, it looks like either the Astros, Reds or Pirates will make an improbable comeback and go to the postseason. Since the creation of the N.L. Central, a pattern has developed. In ’95 and ’96, the division winner had a losing record at the end of April. This was followed by four seasons of teams with winning records at the end of April winning the division. In ’01 and ’02, the division winner had a losing record again followed by, you guessed it, four seasons of teams with winning records through April winning the division. Then, last year, the Cubs went 10-14 but bounced back to win the N.L. Central.

8. The Diamondbacks are in, too.
No team has ever won 20 games by May 1 ^st and not made the playoffs. Both the Mariners in ’02 and the Yankees in ’03 won 20 and they both made it to the playoffs.

Now that we know all of this, here’s what we’ll be talking about in September and October:

NL EAST:The Phillies, Mets and Marlins will be battling it out for the division crown. Because the Dodgers have clinched the Wild Card and the Astros, Reds and Pirates have taken the other Group III spot, the Braves and Nationals have been eliminated.

NL CENTRAL:Either the Astros, Reds and Pirates will own the N.L. Central title. Again, the Dodgers have eliminated the Cubs and Cardinals who currently hold the 2 ^nd and 3 ^rd best records in the N.L and the Brewers who also have a winning record.

NL WEST:The Diamondbacks are in.

WILD CARD:The Dodgers eliminate three more teams – the Giants, Padres and Rockies are all out.

AL EAST:The Red Sox, Rays and Orioles will battle it out for the top spot. Since the Wild Card spot is still up for grabs in the A.L., the East could put two in. Those teams will not be the Yankees or Blue Jays. Because of conclusion #2 and #6, the Red Sox will get either the AL East or Wild Card spot and the Rays or Orioles will take the other.

AL CENTRAL:Detroit, Kansas City and Minnesota all have a shot to take down the Central but none of these teams will contend for the Wild Card. The White Sox are out. The Indians are also out thanks to conclusion #6 and the fact that Arizona and Boston are both in.

AL WEST:Through the process of elimination, the Athletics have clinched the West spot. Sorry Angels, Rangers and Mariners fans.

WILD CARD:Either the Red Sox, Rays or Orioles can be penciled in here.

Thanks to April, we have been able to systematically eliminate 14 of the 30 major league teams and grant postseason access to the Red Sox, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Who knew April meant so much?