When It Comes To Howard’s Slump, Everyone Has An Opinion (Including Me)

On the heels of a night where he went 2-for-4 maybe there’s hope that Phillies slugger Ryan Howard is finally snapping out of his ’08 slump. Then again, he did add to his strikeout total twice to boost it to a major league-high 56 times.

Other than surviving Jimmy Rollins’ trip to the disabled list with a winning record, the hottest topic amongst Phillies’ fans is the horrendous slump that their first baseman has been going through. The comments in the media and the blogosphere started early. When the slump was just a “slow start” many thought it was a mirror image of his slow start in 2007. However, some including Phillies Nation blogger Tim Marcum as early as April 14 ^th wrote that maybe it would be smart to trade Ryan Howard . Marcum contended that while the notion seemed ridiculous, he thought a move of Pat Burrell or Chase Utley to first base would free up Howard to be sent to a team to pick up a major league ready pitcher under 28 and a handful of prospects. At the time, I thought the idea was, indeed, ridiculous and I still feel it is though Marcum’s argument is sound.

Howard’s slide continued through April. On April 23 ^rd , Baseball Digest Daily writer Bill Baer started to document his struggles in the Ryan Report . Then a blogger on The Good Phight deep dived into Howard’s slump on April 25 ^th . Howard’s slow start was now a slump and with every poor performance, Howard’s struggles became fodder for every Phillies’ pre- and post-game show and for both sports talk radio stations in Philadelphia.

As his troubles at the plate continued, 950ESPN host Mike Missanelli put the possibility of a Ryan Howard trade on trial in the court of public opinion and surprisingly there were more supporters of the idea than expected. On May 4 ^th , Howard was tossed by home plate umpire Derryl Cousins in the 10 ^th inning after striking out looking, his third strikeout of the game.

Last week, as Howard’s batting average hit a season low .163 (on May 7 ^th ) and a near season low of .608 OPS (on May 9 ^th ), the evaluations, criticisms and opinions reached a crescendo. On May 9 ^th , David Cohen of The Good Phight added his twist on Howard’s slump . On May 11 ^th , Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer declared Howard’s woes at the plate to officially be known as a slump (now that a member of the credentialed media declared it a slump, I felt comfortable calling it a slump myself). The same day Yahoo! Sports MLB editor Steve Henson wrote an excellent piece that chronicled Howard’s troubles and the steps he was taking to work through it . While Howard had all but stopped talking to the media about it at this point, he agreed to talk to Henson and it was evident that Howard was just as frustrated as the fans and working harder than ever to snap out of it. However, in Charlie Manuel’s words, maybe Howard “wants it too bad.”

On the Phillies day off, I decided to take a look at Howard’s slump and form my own opinion. Heck, everyone else out there had one, why not me? After taking a look at the hitting and pitching analysis of Howard’s 2008 numbers (thanks to Bill James Online), I noticed a couple of interesting things about his ’08 numbers.

First, the pitching analysis:

A close look at these numbers shows a couple of surprising things. First, Howard’s eye at the plate is not considerably worse than any other season. He’s swinging and missing with the same frequency as he normally does, 25% of the pitches he takes are strikes (which is on par to his career numbers) and his taken-to-swung at ratio is fairly similar to his previous seasons. The one surprising fact that came out of looking at this is that the pitches he has swung at have been in the strike zone a higher percentage of the time than any other time in his career. Also, he’s putting the ball in play 30% of the time which is actually a higher percentage of time than all of last season. The increase in strikeouts after looking at this was especially surprising but it goes back to the Manuel comment about Howard pushing too much partnered with his struggles with two strikes against him. In addition, it seems that the umpires have been especially tough on Howard who has struck out looking frequently, including twice last night.

With this puzzling me, I decided to look at where and how he was hitting the ball and his BABIP. This is where the numbers point towards a shift in Ryan’s success compared to previous seasons. First, he’s not hitting the ball to left field and center field as much as in previous seasons. In ’08, Howard has hit the ball to right field 56% of the time compared to 46% of the time for his career. Howard usually has more success when he hits the ball to left or center rather than right field. In addition, he’s hitting 6% fewer line drives than in previous seasons. And when Howard hits a line drive, it’s a hit an astounding 77% of the time. While this would not have a major impact on his batting average, it accounts for a drop off of roughly 6 hits which would at least push Howard’s average over the Mendoza line.

What’s more surprising is his Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) drop-off. Every season, Howard’s BABIP has declined. However, if you look at his drop-off this season, it is a stunning 121 points lower than last season’s .336 to a horrific .215. Without looking at every at bat, it’s difficult to say whether Howard’s difficulty hasn’t been affected by him being a little unlucky, too. But it’s food for thought.

The good news is the Phillies are 4 games above .500 and just 1 ½ games out despite their clean-up hitter’s inability to produce. That’s 3 games better than last year when Howard finally snapped out of the slump that plagued him last year. Based on past experience, it would be surprising if Howard doesn’t turn it around as they get deeper into the season. He’s a .287 hitter in June and July and a plus .300 hitter in August and September. While there are no guarantees, it’s a promise that Phillies’ fans will be hoping Howard can keep.

Usually, I post on Saturday and I asked Mike if there was room for a second post by me this week. He suggested Wednesday or Thursday which is why the post is up today. Ironically, Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin wrote a column on the obsession with Howard’s slump . In his article, Conlin divided us (I guess I’m one of them now, too) into “bashers”, “coaches” and “partisans”. While I played baseball through my teenage years, I wouldn’t know any advice to give him. The last thing I want is for the Phillies to trade him because I’m not one to think that Burrell or Utley converted to first base is the ultimate solution, either. So, that leaves me out of the “basher” group. However, while I’m optimistic Howard will snap out of this prolonged slump due to his past success in June and beyond, I think it’s silly to not worry a little bit so I’m uncomfortable with being in the “partisan” group too. So, can someone find out from the future “King of the World” what group I’d fall into?