Judging Bill Smith

An early July look at the new Twins GM’s first off-season.

On October 1 ^st , 2007, Twins general manager Terry Ryan stepped down after 13 years at the helm of the franchise. Ryan was widely acclaimed for his shrewd trades and commitment to player development, allowing the franchise to compete annually in the first part of this decade despite being hamstrung by stingy owner Carl Pohlad. He was twice named the Sporting News Executive of the Year, and saw the Twins awarded two times as the Organization of the Year by Baseball America. His hand-chosen successor for the post was long-time assistant GM Bill Smith.

Most commentators expected little to change under the new management, especially since Ryan stayed on as an advisor. Smith was a company man who learned the trade from Ryan and had actually played a prominent role in much of the behind-the-scenes action as an assistant. However, it was during the 2007 season that grumblings were heard for the first time about Ryan’s acumen. At the trade deadline, he sent veteran second baseman Luis Castillo to the Mets for two unknown minor leaguers. Many, including some players, questioned the move publicly, especially as  rookie Alexi Casilla struggled in an everyday role. There was also speculation that Ryan wished to get out before the storm forecasted for that off-season: free agency decisions had to be made on Torii Hunter, Johan Santana and Carlos Silva, while Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan were all seeking extensions.

Smith’s first campaign, a true trial by fire, created a good deal of debate in the Twin Cities over the winter. Indeed, it was the most active off-season that Minnesota had seen in many years. Now that half a season has been played, we can look back at some of Smith’s moves and non-moves and see how he fared. 

Trades

Starting pitcher Johan Santana to the Mets for center fielder Carlos Gomez and minor league pitchers Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.

Even casual hot stove fans were thoroughly sick of hearing about this deal by the time it finally happened on January 29. Santana had made it clear that he was interested in signing a long-term contract for a figure befitting the game’s best pitcher. This criterion quickly narrowed the playing field, with the Yankees and Red Sox emerging as early favorites, and both teams made a tentative offer at the early G.M. meetings. Reports varied, but most had the Yankees offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a selection of prospects. The Red Sox offered two packages, one headed by Jacoby Ellsbury, the other by Coco Crisp and Jon Lester. Both also included highly rated prospects Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterton.

On this deal, Smith committed to a calculated risk. His belief (which he shared with many spectators) was that Boston and New York would enter into a bidding war, inciting one or the other to ratchet their offer up to the next level. In Boston’s case, that would mean including both Lester and Ellsbury; for New York, it would have been including Ian Kennedy along with Hughes and Cabrera.

Unfortunately, as time dragged on, the two competitors eschewed an arms race in favor of gradual disarmament. Neither was happy about dealing the cream of their farm system, and rumors mounted that neither offer was even officially on the table. As spring training neared and the clamor grew to a deafening roar, the Twins finally pulled the trigger on a deal with the dark-horse Mets. The centerpieces of the deal were Gomez and Guerra, with Mulvey and Humber adding pitching depth. The move was largely decried at the time; many condemned Smith for not having acted more swiftly on the original offers. Though his theory on the Yankees and Red Sox seemed sound at the time, most pronounced the Santana deal a flop for the Twins.

After 81 games, we can see how it has actually turned out thus far. In 17 starts for the Mets, Santana is 7-7 with a 3.01 ERA (6 ^th in the N.L.), 103 strikeouts (4 ^th ) and a 1.223 WHIP (8 ^th ). His 136 ERA+ is impressive, but down markedly from the 155 he averaged in Minnesota from 2003-2007. He has also already given up 14 home runs, a year after yielding more (33) than any pitcher in the A.L. Many writers have explained his poor record in 2008 by pointing to a lack of run support, and it is true that he has suffered three losses in which he surrendered only 1 earned run. In general, though, Santana has enjoyed 4.91 runs per game. He has been pitching very well, for certain, but this has not translated into team success, and Mets fans are audibly upset with the way their team has performed.

In Minnesota, Carlos Gomez has shown flashes of brilliance on the basepaths and in the field, but is frustratingly undisciplined at the plate. Batting first in the order, he has an on-base percentage of .304, with just 14 walks and a whopping 83 strikeouts, second most in the A.L. It is also worth noting that the Twins’ incumbent young center fielder, Denard Span, has exceeded most expectations and, in hindsight, could probably have filled the team’s hole in center field himself. Humber and Mulvey have both struggled at AAA Rochester. The wild card remains 19-year-old flamethrower Deolis Guerra, who is pitching at high-A Ft. Myers. He’s 8-4 with a 4.32 ERA, 46 strikeouts and 39 walks. He’s still young for that level, however, and on July 1 he had his best outing of the year, a complete game 3-hit shutout.

In summary, the jury is still out on this deal. If the Mets can make a late-season move—and if Santana helps spearhead it—New York will certainly have gotten its money’s worth. On the other hand, if Gomez and Guerra turn out as projected, the Twins will have acquitted themselves well in a difficult situation.

Shortstop Jason Bartlett, starting pitcher Matt Garza and minor league relief pitcher Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for outfielder Delmon Young, infielder Brendan Harris and minor league outfielder Jason Pridie.

This trade actually came several months before the Santana one, and was certainly less expected. The Twins had an impressive stockpile of young arms and a hole to fill in left field as well as in the middle of the lineup. They hoped to accomplish both feats by acquiring Young, a former #1 overall draft pick who is still just 22 years old. Halfway through the season, he has not done as well as expected. In April and May he hit .264/.323/.337 and, most alarmingly, did not hit a single home run. He hit better in June and may be turning a corner offensively, but still often looks uncomfortable in left field. Brendan Harris, who was advertised as an offense-first second baseman, is hitting .245 with 66 strikeouts against 21 walks. He has shuffled between second base and shortstop while playing average defense. Jason Pridie, a center fielder whom the Twins had previously drafted out of high school, is mired in AAA with both Gomez and Span ahead of him on the depth chart. Perhaps the most visible effect of this trade from the Minnesota prospective is the shift from a young, dependable infield anchored by Bartlett to an underachieving mish-mash of free agents, utility players and rookies. Add that to the suspect defense of Young and Gomez, and the Twins have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency percentage in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus.

In Tampa Bay, Jason Bartlett has played steady, if unexceptional, defense, and despite poor hitting has stolen 17 bases in 20 attempts. Garza is a solid front-line starter for Tampa, and a major contributor to their success so far. He has a 7-4 record and has strung together a number of impressive starts in the last few weeks, including a complete game 1-hitter against the Marlins on June 26. At the major league level, the Rays have gotten the better of it, at least so far. That doesn’t even take Morlan into account. Many members of the Twins blogging community were disappointed that Morlan had been included in the deal, rather than Juan Rincon as originally reported. So far, Morlan has missed 6 weeks at AA Montgomery with an injury, so it’s hard to evaluate his contribution, but he should not be dismissed as a throw-in. There are worries that Bill Smith has let a good prospect slip away rather than snatching one away from another club, as Ryan was known to do. Unless Delmon Young starts producing soon—and Twins management remains confident that he will—this trade will look quite bad in hindsight. 

Minor league outfielder Doug Deeds to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Craig Monroe.

The issue here isn’t losing Doug Deeds, who is currently spending his third full season at the AA level for the Cubs. Rather, it’s the fact that Smith doled out nearly $4 million for Monroe, a 30-year-old center fielder with declining range and whose OBP has been steadily declining since 2004. He’s platooned with Jason Kubel at DH thus far, but is hitting just .133 against lefties, compared to .288 against righties. He’s right-handed. Monroe has also helped spell Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Gomez in the outfield, but for less than replacement level production, $3.82 million seems rather rich.

It is hard to call winners and losers on these three trades just yet. One very important factor is the amount of money saved by dealing Santana rather than re-signing him to an outlandish long-term contract. The effect of this extra money was seen in the Twins’ behavior in the free agent market, including their own free agents. In a few days I will have a review of that portion of the off-season, at which point I will be in a better position to make an overall assessment.