Judging Bill Smith, continued

Free agency decisions.

After Tuesday’s article about the Twins’ off-season trades , I am now writing about their activity in the free agent market. The simple fact that it requires a two part series to recap the off-season is a pleasant change of pace for Minnesota fans, and possible evidence that Bill Smith will move more aggressively than his mentor and predecessor, Terry Ryan. Of course, it may also be a coincidence that so many key players needed their contracts addressed this off-season.

Not re-signed: Carlos Silva, Torii Hunter, Rondell White, Lew Ford, Jason Tyner .

Letting White, Ford and Tyner go wasn’t much of a blow for the team, as none of the three are playing in the majors in 2008. Silva and Hunter were much bigger decisions; their departures, along with that of Santana, were predicted to keep the Twins out of contention. Both players’ situations were closely tied to Santana’s, since if the ace was traded, the team planned on getting a centerfielder and pitcher in return.

Hunter made it apparent by the end of the season that he didn’t expect to be back. Many Twins fans found his comments on the matter disingenuous. He complained to the media that “sometimes your welcome is gone,” but the Twins had in fact expressed interest—just not for as much money as Hunter wanted. After flirting with the White Sox and Rangers, among other teams, Hunter surprised many people by signing a 5 year, $90 million contract with the Angels, making him the third highest-paid outfielder in baseball behind Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones. Through 84 games, he is batting .272/.325/.464 with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs. Over the same stretch last season, he hit .307/.347/.567 with 19 home runs and 67 RBIs. He was not selected for the All-Star game, and the Twins must be glad that they didn’t cough up the kind of contract he requested. Carlos Gomez, who replaced him in center field, is much less developed as a player, but nonetheless has been Hunter’s equal in the field and has stolen 21 bases at the top of the batting order. Despite the emotions involved in letting the face of the franchise walk out the door, Smith surely did the right thing with Torii Hunter.

Carlos Silva was probably an easier decision for Smith, and it looks even better in retrospect. Silva benefited from a weak free agent class and signed a 4 year, $48 million contract with the Mariners. The Mariners, with Silva and Erik Bedard, hoped to contend for the pennant, but have fallen off precipitously from the 88-win season in 2007. Silva has not been of much help: he is 4-10 with a 5.85 ERA and an even 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Twins have relied mostly on young, unproven pitchers. This was expected to be their downfall, but Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have actually all out-pitched Silva, and for a fraction of the cost. As with Hunter, Smith could easily have tried to make a statement by re-signing Silva. He wisely chose not to, and his team is better for it.

Extended: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan.

Again, the loss of Santana, Hunter and Silva freed up a large amount of salary cap space. Rather than plunging into the free agent market, Bill Smith opted to keep the current nucleus of the team together with a series of long-term deals. Morneau signed for 6 years and $80 million, making him the highest paid first baseman in the A.L. After his 2006 MVP season, Morneau’s numbers dipped slightly in 2007, but he’s still just 27 years old. So far in 2008, he has a 136 OPS+ and was named to the All-Star team for the second consecutive season.

Michael Cuddyer, on the other hand, has never produced as much as Morneau. Two years older, he has never batted .300 in a single season. He is, however, an excellent right fielder, a consistent (career .269/.344/.452) hitter batting fifth, and a well-liked figure in the clubhouse and in Minneapolis. His deal, announced together with Morneau’s, was good for $24 million over 3 years. The reaction to the two deals was generally positive, although some were concerned at the price tag. As Aaron Gleeman wrote, “there’s no doubt that Morneau and Cuddyer are good, solid players, but there’s plenty of reason to question whether the Twins should be paying premium prices for good, solid players given their payroll constraints, especially when they’re about to let the best pitcher in baseball leave over money.” Thus far, Cuddyer has battled injuries and batted just .252/.324/.376 in 259 plate appearances. He’s been absent for much of the Twins’ recent winning streak, but hopefully can provide some punch in the lineup upon his return (though Denard Span has played very well in his stead).

Joe Nathan’s contract came much later, just a week before the season began. He was already signed through 2008, yet hoped to get an extension ahead of time. It seemed as though talks had cooled, but the two sides eventually came to terms on a 4 year, $47 million deal similar to the one Francisco Cordero had signed earlier. Nathan has been one of the dominant closers in baseball since coming to Minnesota in 2004; in fact, over that period, he has the lowest cumulative WHIP—0.937 – of any reliever with at least 200 appearances. So far in 2008, he has 25 saves in 27 opportunities, a 1.23 ERA, 40 strikeouts and 6 walks in 37 innings, enough to earn him a trip to the All-Star Game.

The publicity created by the departure of Santana and Hunter overshadowed the serious financial commitment the Twins made to the rest of their core players. Morneau and Nathan have earned their money so far, and Minnesota has been able to weather the losses of their two superstars, as well as the injuries of Cuddyer.

Free agents signed: Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett .

Largely overlooked in the Delmon Young trade was the loss of starting shortstop Jason Bartlett, who had made huge strides in 2007. Though he committed 26 errors, his range factor of 4.49 dwarfed the league mark of 3.97, and he got on base at a .339 rate. With Bartlett gone, there were serious questions about the team’s infield. These were addressed by signing a pair of Houston Astros, third baseman Mike Lamb and shortstop Adam Everett. Lamb had been used as a utility player in Houston, and hadn’t had 450 plate appearances since his rookie year in 2000. A serviceable fielder with some pop in his bat, the Twins gambled on him as an everyday player. To this point, it does not seem like a good decision. Since June 1, he’s collected only 3 hits in 33 at-bats, and has lost his starting spot to Brian Buscher. To compound the problem, Lamb signed a 2-year contract ($6.6 million), making it difficult for the team to move him.

Everett has been of little value as well. This may be a result of shoulder problems, which have kept him on the disabled list since May 23 and hindered him when he was playing. Touted as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, he was posting career lows in fielding percentange and zone rating before going on the shelf. His contract was at least for one year only, at $2.8 million, but the Twins have few options in their system at shortstop. Nick Punto, a favorite of Ron Gardenhire’s if no one else’s, has seen the most playing time in Everett’s absence, and it is unclear what Everett’s role will be when he does return.

With the two infielders making a negligible impact, more attention has been paid to Livan Hernandez, signed from the Diamondbacks for $5 million. Hernandez is the nominal ace of the rotation and has won 9 games despite throwing little more than glorified batting practice (he benefits from the highest run support on the team, 5.88 runs per start). He’s allowed the most hits and the second-most earned runs in all of baseball. His WHIP of 1.590 is the second-highest (behind Jeff Suppan) of all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. He makes more money than the other four starting pitchers put together, but has the worst ERA (5.18) and the most home runs allowed (15). On a positive note, he has thrown 116 innings, taking some pressure off of a young rotation and bullpen. With Francisco Liriano progressing at AAA Rochester, there is speculation that Hernandez might be on the block, if any teams show interest.

Conclusion

A convergence of free agency decisions has given Twins fans plenty of opportunities to grade Bill Smith, the team’s first year GM. He made his biggest splash by trading Johan Santana; the haul he got from the Mets didn’t match those of the Yankees and Red Sox, but it’s not certain that those were ever actually on the table. Carlos Gomez has played very well and Deolis Guerra still has several years to develop. The Delmon Young trade has not been beneficial in the short term, but Young is also just 22 years old and still full of potential. He’s shown signs of improvement at the plate over the last few weeks. Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva haven’t lived up to their contracts with their new teams, while Morneau and Nathan are playing very well in Minnesota. On the whole, while Smith made several questionable decisions, especially in the free agent market, he did very well on the major decisions. There is definitely some continuity between Terry Ryan and Smith in terms of developing within the system and stockpiling pitching depth, but Smith also showed a willingness to use that pitching depth to improve other parts of the system—something Ryan was often reluctant to do. Finally, it is worth noting that the Twins have exceeded all expectations for the 2008 season. The fact that they have played so well, all while building towards the future, is proof that Smith has put his team in a position to win.

References: www.baseball-reference.com, www.espn.com, www.aarongleeman.com, mlbcontracts.blogspot.com.