The Revenge of Alexei Ramirez

or, why my first article is obsolete

In May I wrote an article on this website examining the Cuban and MLB career of Alexei Ramirez. At that point (through May 15), he had only 5 hits in 45 plate appearances with the White Sox, and seemed to have lost the confidence of his manager and teammates. I noted that there were significant disparities among talent evaluators concerning his potential in the majors; some thought he could be a star, while others predicted he’d struggle to stay on the roster. From his short time in Chicago, I pointed to his tendency to fall behind in the count as a major reason why he wasn’t hitting the ball better.

Since that article—coincidence?—Ramirez has turned his game around 100%. Today, we can look at his updated numbers and see if my old theory still holds water. I will also try to identify a turning point for him in the season.

First, the count tendency. I stated in the original article that he’d fallen into a 0-1 count 27 times, compared to just 11 times in a 1-0 count. Furthermore, he’d put the first pitch in play only 5 times, making 4 outs and reaching on an error. The obvious conclusion is that he was allowing the pitcher to dictate the at-bat rather than being aggressive, especially on the first pitch. Ramirez attributed this partly to the pace of the game and the variety of pitches thrown in a given at-bat. Now that he’s had about three more months of experience, we can see if he has taken our advice to heart:

The stats on the far right summarize the story nicely—he stunk, then he was great. In the last three months, both components of his OPS have individually been higher than his OPS of the first month of the season. The increased plate appearances originally came due to Juan Uribe’s injury, but he soon showed he deserved them. As for the count numbers, there is an extremely distinct trend in his mindset on the first pitch. He’s been putting the first offering in play twice as often since May 8 as he did before then. More importantly, on those first pitch swings he’s notched 20 hits, good for a .435 batting average (along with a .413 BABIP—more on that to come).

Equally noteworthy is the trend of what happens when he doesn’t put the first pitch in play. Before May 8, he was two and a half times more likely to take a strike on the first pitch than a ball. Since, he’s cut back drastically on that number. Combined with the previous observation, this means two things. First, by looking to hit the first pitch, he’s become much more aggressive at the plate, forcing the opponent to make a quality pitch rather than lobbing in an uncontested strike one. Second, when those quality pitches miss, he’s been content to let them go by, all while looking out for a ball he can hit. Hitters are often advised to be patient at the plate, but Ramirez’s problem early in the season was precisely the opposite. With a more aggressive approach, he put the pressure on the pitchers and put himself into more favorable hitting situations.

Now that we’ve recognized the trend, let’s see if we can pinpoint when it began. After their game on May 8, Ramirez’ next start came in San Francisco on the 16 ^th . This was due to a hamstring injury to starter Juan Uribe the previous day. Ramirez came to the plate four times on May 16; each time, he took a first-pitch ball. With two outs in the 7 ^th inning, he hit a long two-run homer, providing all the scoring for the game. It was his first home run in the majors after leading the Cuban league in the category the year before. Here already is evidence that he was being more prudent on the first pitch, not taking any strikes. The following game he had another hit, off Barry Zito. Importantly, he connected on the first pitch, the first time he’d done so all season. He didn’t get another hit, but fouled off two other first pitches and took another for a ball, continuing his improved performance. On the final date of the series, he recorded his first two-hit game of the season. One of the hits was a double on the first pitch he saw. The White Sox swept the series and Ramirez was certainly a major contributor.

For his part, Ramirez recently told the Chicago Tribune that the warmer weather made him feel more comfortable, and was responsible for his improved play. Manager Ozzie Guillen and hitting coach Greg Walker pointed to mechanical issues; they worked with him on shortening his swing and reducing a high leg kick that made it difficult to hit a breaking ball. These may be important contributing factors, but in no way do they diminish the important of his improved pitch selection.

Despite his demonstrated improvement, Ramirez’s current hitting should certainly be taken with a grain of salt. In March and April, his BABIP was only .148. In May and June, on the other hand, it was .314 and .370, respectively, while in the last 7 days it is a ridiculous .571. Assuming that his ‘true’ talent (and luck) level lies somewhere between these two extremes, he may indeed be capable of keeping up his current batting line (.304/.326/.461). His most recent numbers are well better, and clearly unsustainable. It should be encouraging for White Sox fans, however, that Ramirez was able to make an important adjustment in his approach after just a month of irregular at-bats. Now that he has adjusted to MLB pitching, he definitely seems capable of being an excellent everyday player.

References: www.baseball-reference.com, www.espn.com, www.mlb.com, Chicago Tribune.