Laying Odds Part 1: American League

The trade deadline looms, the dog days of August approach, and the divisional races simmer.  What are the odds that your team will win the division?  Josh Deitch has the answers.

As we move from the fanfare of the All-Star Game to the swelter of August, the light at the end of the tunnel grows brighter.  The playoffs begin to loom, transforming contenders to sellers and underachievers into challengers.  In part one of this two part endeavor, let’s take a look at the teams fighting for the three top spots in the American League.

A.L. WEST: The Angels and…?  

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  

The name is still ridiculous.  I ask all the residents of California, are any of you fooled?  Do you really believe that the Angels play in Los Angeles?  Do the four part name and the simple inclusion of the words “Los Angeles” mean higher revenues?  If the market is that important to this franchise, why not just call yourselves the Eastern Beijing Angels of Anaheim?  It would certainly tap a bigger market.

But I digress.  I’m filibustering because it’s July 30 ^th and this race is over.  Nobody in the west can contend with this team.  Texas, with Hamilton and Kinsler, probably has the best chance, but they have no pitching.  There are few organizations out there that have managed their talent worse than the Rangers.  While other teams on this list have maximized the players and production that come from a small market, Texas consistently overpays for offense and forgets about pitching.  Add Armando Galarraga and Edinson Volquez to the Rangers, and they compete for this division.  I know the Rangers received Hamilton for Volquez, but when you have a young electric arm like Volquez, is there enough offense out there to justify the loss of approximately five years of a top flight ace?

Everything that the Rangers do poorly, the Angels do well. Anaheim possesses the best record in the league, a 3.88 team ERA, and a closer that had recorded 40 saves before anyone else had 30.  The Angels rank in the top ten in the league in all categories of consequence, from batting average and slugging percentage to WHIP and quality starts.  Their rotation is well-rounded (Lackey took a no-hitter against Boston into the ninth inning last night), and their lineup balances speed, power, and timely hitting.  On top of all that, they just traded Casey Kotchman for Mark Teixiera.  Had this trade occurred in my roto league, it would have been followed by vitriolic posts on the message board, extended arguments where people would refuse to talk to one another for years, and a possible face-to-face encounter that may or may not include personal physical violence.  This acquisition could easily put the Angels in the World Series.
ODDS:  Even money  

A.L. CENTRAL:  White Sox, Twins, and the lurking Tigers  

Chicago White Sox

If you are a White Sox fan, how is Carlos Quentin not your favorite player?  Every time I turn on Baseball Tonight, there’s Quentin driving in another run late in a tight ballgame.  He blazed out of the gate and hasn’t really slowed down.  Quentin has an A.L. leading 27 homers, along with 79 RBI, and .918 OPS.  Furthermore, late in close games, he is hitting .351 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, and an OPS of 1.140.  Thanks to Quentin, a surprisingly productive year from Jim Thome, along with Joe Crede, and Jermaine Dye – all of whom are on pace to hit 20 or more homers – the White Sox lead the A.L. in homers, rank fourth in runs scored, and second in slugging.  They have done all this without the typical production from past all-stars like Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher.

Similarly, their pitching has outperformed all expectations.  They are fourth in the A.L. in ERA, thanks mainly to young arms like John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  However, Peter Pasquarelli said that these two guys were hitting the wall.  Just like Harvey Dent’s campaign slogan in the Dark Knight, I believe in Peter Pasquarelli.  In Danks’ last three starts, despite winning them two, he has allowed 14 earned runs and his ERA has climbed from 2.67 to 3.18.  In Floyd’s last three starts, he has lost two and received a no decision his last time out.  Add a shaky bullpen, embodied by the corpulence of Bobby Jenks, and we might see the Sox slide over the next month or so.

The wild card here is Ozzie Guillen.  He’s nuts.  Certifiably nuts.  But his team responds to the crazy.  Early in the season, he threw his general manager under the bus and demanded more offense, basically backhanding his entire lineup.  Now, his lineup is at the top of the league in most categories of importance.  If his pitching continues to struggle, he could throw his bullpen catcher down a flight of stairs.  Once that happens, expect Chicago’s team ERA to drop below 3.00.
ODDS: 3-1  
 

Minnesota Twins

I wrote about the Twins in my last column .  All you need to know about the Twins is that they refuse to go away.  Ron Gardenhire simply does not receive enough credit for the job he does with a team comprised mainly of young, unpolished players.  Look at the starting line up for the Twins.  Besides Mauer and Morneau, are there any players that you would want starting on your fantasy team?  Nevertheless, Gardenhire pushes them to play baseball the right way – speed combined with timely hitting, and maximum effort defense – and has this small-market team in contention every year.

They have a pitching rotation made up of popsicle sticks, chewing gum, and Joe Nathan (Livan Hernandez is the chewing gum) and a run differential of just +31, but find themselves a half game out of first place.  Just look at last night’s game with the first place White Sox.  The Twins fell behind 4-0 in the early innings, only to score five in the bottom of the fifth inning.  They did so not with overwhelming power, but simply by continuously pushing the inning along until Justin Morneau could step up and drive a three-run double into deep right field.  Then the bullpen took over.  Jesse Crane, Denys Reyes, and Matt Guerrier allowed no runs, and Nathan nailed down the game in the ninth.  Don’t be surprised to see the Twins in it until the very end.  
ODDS: 3.2-1
 

Detroit Tigers

Is there any team that has been more disappointing than the Tigers?  In direct opposition to the Twins, look at the Tigers’ depth chart .  The only player I would be incredibly uncomfortable with having in my fantasy lineup would be Matt Joyce.  At the beginning of the year, this was going to be the team that blew everybody out.  Listening to everyone talk about Ordonez, Cabrera, Guillen, Polanco, and Sheffield, you would have expected teams like the Kansas City Royals, in order to avoid embarrassment, to just forfeit every time Detroit rolled into town.  While the Tigers offense has been good, everybody forgot about pitching.  They are eleventh in the A.L. in ERA and WHIP, and have a run differential of only +31.  Justin Verlander has been mediocre at best, Kenny Rogers has been consistently old, and Todd Jones was their closer up until a week or so ago.  The only bright spot for this team, and one of the only reasons why it is still in the running has been Armando Galarraga’s nine wins and 3.36 ERA. ODDS:  30-1  

A.L. EAST:  Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees  

Boston Red Sox  

On paper, the Red Sox were the best team in the league.  With the Angels’ addition of Teixiera, the Halos surpass the Sox.  That doesn’t mean Boston shouldn’t win this division.  Offensively, the Red Sox rank second in the A.L. in batting average, runs scored, OPS, and stolen bases; fourth in slugging; and are first in on-base percentage.  Their pitching ranks fifth in ERA, third in opponents’ batting average and quality starts, and second in saves.  With David Ortiz returning this past weekend, Boston once again possesses the most dangerous three-four combination in the league.  Ortiz’s presence instantly makes everyone in that lineup a better hitter, and one through nine, every single batter is a dangerous one – except for Varitek, his hitting days are over.

Boston’s pitching staff is set up for the long haul.  At the front of the rotation, they have Dice-K, Beckett, and the incredible Jon Lester.  Over his last ten starts, barring two hiccups against Houston and Minnesota, Lester has lowered his ERA from 3.67 to 3.17.  His last time out, he destroyed the Yankees physically and mentally.  Besides being a great story, Lester has become a great pitcher and looks to be an ace for years to come.  The three of them make up one of the most fearsome top three in the league.  Also, with the return of Justin Masterson and the shocking success of Javier Lopez, the Sox have addressed some of their bullpen issues.  And let’s not forget, they still have Papelbon at closing games.

The main question for this team over the next two months will be Manny Ramirez.  He seems to have finally worn out his welcome in Boston.  While he’s always been flaky, since the winter, Manny has tried to sell a grill on Ebay for something like $5,000, punched Youkilis in the face, pushed a team executive, made a cell phone call from the Green Monster, and basically announced that he hates everyone in Boston.  As a middle school teacher, I see situations just like Manny’s on a yearly basis.  Basically, in fifth grade, kids think someone is hilarious if he consistently talks, gyrates, and generally calls attention to himself.  However, by the time they reach seventh grade, the other kids have had enough.  They realize that his antics have taken up their time and really just aren’t funny anymore.  Eventually, you just can’t overlook all the nonsense that comes along with being friends or teammates with Manny Ramirez.  Who knows how this will play out, with Manny prominently involved, anything is possible.  Despite all that, Boston should muscle their way to the top by the end of September.
ODDS: 3-1  
 

New York Yankees

Games like Tuesday night are reasons why the Yankees may not make the playoffs this season.  In the teams of the late nineties, the Yankees never left come-from-behind rallies unfinished.  Just as a shaky closer started to put runners on base, the Yankee Stadium crowd would get loud.  Let’s Go Yankees would reverberate across the Bronx, and as the pitchers started to shrink under the pressure, players like Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, and Bernie Williams would seem to grow in stature.  Coming up in the bottom of the ninth as the tying run, O’Neill,Martinez, or Williams would never strike out, like A-Rod, on a George Sherill high fastball.  They would find a way to either knock some runs in or take a walk and move the inning along.  Even Chuck Knoblauch would float a broken bat blooper into the outfield.  As Cano batted with one out and the tying run on second, he might as well have used a cocktail umbrella instead of a bat.  It would have been just as effective.

Ultimately, the Yankees just don’t have the consistency necessary to win the division.  This has been a streaky team all year, running either extremely hot or extremely cold.  They came out of the break winning eight in a row, and then dropped three straight by a combined 900 runs.  Mussina, Joba, and Pettitte have been good, but can you really win a pennant with Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson pitching for you every five days?  Probably not, but the offense combined with Rivera and the front end of the rotation may just be enough to keep them in it until the end.  This race looks like it may well be decided by the last three games of the season in Boston.
ODDS: 5-1  

Tampa Bay Rays  

I just don’t see it.  On the road, the Rays have been 22-28.  They only have five more wins on the road than the worst road team in baseball.  They have been an atrocious road team.  The Rays have been marked by inconsistency this entire year.  They either run hot at home or cold on the road, there hasn’t been any gray area for them.  Ultimately, they are an incredible success story, showing what can be done when you get the first pick in the draft ten years in a row, but I just don’t think they have enough to complete the race.

In the final showdown of Rounders between Mike McD and Teddy KGB, Mike (Matt Damon’s character) takes a big pot off of Teddy (John Malkovich) early on, and says, “With that hand, I kicked one of Teddy’s legs out.  Now all I had to do was lean on him.”  Heading into the All-Star break, the Yankees kicked the legs out from under the Rays, beating them once by offense and once in an extra innings pitcher’s duel.  Over the course of the next two months, the experience of the Yankees and Red Sox will lean on the Rays until they fold.  Keep an eye on them in the future though. ODDS: 15-1