Once Through the Rotation With the Minnesota Twins

Going into 2008, it was clear that Minnesota’s starting rotation was going to be either its biggest liability or its trump card in the AL Central. Pessimists could point to the fact that four of their starters—Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser—had combined for just 632 career innings pitched, none before 2005. By comparison, 163 individual pitchers had thrown more innings by themselves, including Livan Hernandez, nominal ace of the staff, with 2371 innings to his credit. Hernandez himself was cause for concern for many, who saw him as the latest pretender in an eminently unworthy line of veteran free agent signings, and a particularly expensive one at that.

On the other hand, the four youngsters had an impressive pedigree. In 2007, Baker held his own in the Minnesota rotation, while Slowey won the International League’s Pitcher of the Year award, posting a 1.89 ERA in 20 starts. Blackburn, a 29 ^th round draft choice in 2001, went 7-3 after a mid-season call-up to Triple-A Rochester, and Bonser had shown flashes of brilliance in his 2006 rookie campaign.

Should any of these men fail—and most assumed that at least one would—the Twins still had some excellent arms in reserve. Chief among them was Francisco Liriano, coming back from Tommy John surgery after dominating the A.L. in 2006. Fellow lefty Glen Perkins had had success at Triple-A and as a reliever in Minnesota, and former Mets prospects Phillip Humber and Kevin Mulvey carried high hopes as part of the Johan Santana bounty.

The result? As it turned out, the Twins’ rotation was remarkably consistent throughout the season. Only seven pitchers started a game, and there were only two changes to the group all year—Perkins replacing Bonser in May and Liriano replacing Hernandez in August. Such nice sampling allows us to make a fair assessment of each pitcher’s performance, as well as that of the staff as a whole.

Strikeouts(in the good sense, you know, from the pitcher’s perspective… nevermind)

Scott Baker: 11-4, 3.45 ERA in 172.1 IP; 141 K, 42 BB, 161 H, 20 HR

Despite being just 26 years old, Baker was seen as the lieutenant veteran on the staff, with more experience than anyone but old man Hernandez. From 2006 to 2007, he’d lowered both his ERA and WHIP in nearly twice the number of innings pitched. Happily, he continued both trends in 2008. Baker was remarkably consistent in the first and second halves of the season. He throws an above-average fastball, a slider, a change and a curve, all with excellent command in the strike zone; his 3.36 K/BB ratio was seventh best in the American League. In his last two starts of the season, as the Twins were battling the White Sox for the division, the righty defeated both Chicago and Kansas City, striking out 13, walking two and allowing one solitary run in fourteen innings.

An extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.69 groundout/flyout ratio), Baker actually didn’t do too poorly with home runs, allowing 20. He struggled somewhat against left-handers, with a 49 point platoon split in opponent OPS (.269/.319), but again, wasn’t terrible. While Francisco Liriano certainly has a higher upside, and is probably the ace of the future, Baker continued to prove in 2008 that he’s a reliable cog in the rotation.

Nick Blackburn: 11-11, 4.05 ERA in 193.1 IP; 96 K, 39 BB, 224 H, 23 HR

Blackburn was by no means assured a roster spot, but earned one with a strong showing in spring training. Though he was seen as the fourth or fifth starter, he actually ended up leading the staff in both innings and starts. Blackburn’s ERA was exactly league average, but like all the Twins pitchers, he did an excellent job of limiting walks—just 1.82 per nine innings. Predictably, he tired in the last two months of his rookie season, surrendering ten home runs in September with an ERA of 6.21. This culminated with game 163 against the White Sox, in which Blackburn took a tough 1-0 loss. The run came off a Jim Thome home run, the 22 ^nd homer he allowed.

Perhaps more so than any of the other Twins pitchers, skeptics questioned whether Blackburn was ready to compete against major league batters. He had burst onto the scene in 2005, skyrocketing from High-A Fort Myers to Triple-A Rochester in a single season, before stagnating somewhat in 2006. His pitches are not overpowering but, like Baker and Slowey, he spots them well. Though he’s old (26) for a rookie, Blackburn exceeded nearly all expectations in 2008, and appears to have a secure spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Francisco Liriano: 6-4, 3.91 ERA in 76 IP; 67 K, 32 BB, 72 H, 7 HR.

Probably no pitcher in the spring of 2008 was the subject of as much wild speculation as Francisco Liriano. Some feared that he’d never fully recover from elbow surgery, or if he did, would have to give up on his slider. Others giddily predicted a reprisal of his dominance in 2006, when he looked like Danny Almonte pitching to twelve-year-olds . As a result, Twins fans were bitterly disappointed when The Franchise was left off the opening day roster. Despite looking mediocre in two starts, Liriano was called up in mid-April. He made three starts and lost them all. In the last one, April 24 against Oakland, he got knocked out of the box in the first inning after surrendering six runs on five hits and three walks. For this, he got a well-deserved ticket back to Rochester.

Back in the minors, Liriano proceeded to turn his season around. He won ten games out of eleven consecutive starts, struck out more than a batter an inning, and walked only 13. After some ridiculous posturing from his agent, he was recalled in early August, taking Livan Hernandez’s spot in the rotation. In this second stint, he showed much more patience and more trust in his secondary pitches, including the slider. Although he wasn’t the same as in 2006—and he may never be—he did got 6-1 in eleven starts, limiting opposing hitters to a .236 batting average.

Liriano’s velocity never got back to the mid-90s, and his slider lacks the bite it once had. It is a commonplace, however, that pitchers generally don’t make a full recovery from Tommy John surgery until their second full season back. If Liriano can take the lessons he learned from this season, in which he had to learn to use his entire repertoire and pitch more to contact, and combine them with the dizzying stuff he showed in 2006—and, to a lesser extent, in Triple-A in 2008—then he certainly still could live up to his enormous pre-injury potential.

Home Runs(again, home runs = bad for the pitcher… unless it’s Carlos Zambrano)

Livan Hernandez (with Twins): 10-8, 5.48 ERA in 139.2 IP; 54 K, 29 BB, 154 H, 19 HR

The maddening thing about Livan Hernandez’s stint in Minnesota wasn’t even that he was so bad. It was that many outsiders actually thought he was doing well. This is largely due to the much-discussed misconception about pitching wins. On June 3, el viejo was allowing an opponents’ batting average of .339, and had struck out just 25 batters in 81 innings. Since 2000, only four pitchers have had a lower K/9 rate over an entire season, and only one—Chien-Ming Wang in 2006—had a winning season. (Of course, Wang only gave up 12 home runs in 218 innings, compared to Hernandez’s 10 in 81 innings). He had given up five or more runs in five of his thirteen starts. Yet, by a combination of dogged endurance and good luck, his record was a sparkling 6-2.

Were it not for Liriano’s ascendance, one can only speculate on how long Hernandez would have remained in the rotation. As it was, Hernandez and Craig Monroe were summarily released on August 1 ^st . Curiously, Hernandez was soon signed by the Rockies, who thereby assumed payment on a chunk of his five million dollar salary. In eight starts for Colorado, he went 3-3 with an 8.03 ERA and a .345 batting average against. Livan, we hardly knew ye.

Boof Bonser (as a starter): 2-6, 5.97 ERA in 66.1 IP; 42 BB, 20 K, 73 H, 8 HR

Despite logging a significant number of innings since his debut in 2006, Bonser has always been somewhat of an unknown quantity. His success down the stretch in 2006 earned him a rotation spot for the following season, but he had problems with home runs in 2007. When he can keep the ball down, he strikes out a lot of batters with a hard fastball and tumbling slider. The concern is that he often misses within the strike zone, making him prone to big innings. This is what happened in the beginning of 2008. In 66 innings as a starter, he allowed eight home runs and only made it through the seventh inning in two of his 12 starts. After a horrendous May in which he allowed 35 runs in six starts, he was bumped from the starting rotation in favor of lefty Glen Perkins, recalled from Rochester.

Again, heading into 2009, Bonser’s future is unclear. He experienced limited success in the bullpen as a long reliever, but very seldom pitched in high leverage situations. The Twins are more than willing to include him in a trade, but it’s unclear how much value he has on the market. If he can fix his command problems, Bonser could still be a very effective big league pitcher. In fact, baseball-reference.com suggests a very interesting comparison: Aaron Harang. The Reds’ ace struggled with home runs through his age 26 season, but eventually harnessed his fastball and emerged as one of the league’s premier strikeout artists. Only time will tell if Bonser can manage a similar coup.

Foul Tips

Kevin Slowey: 12-11, 3.99 ERA in 160.1 IP; 123 K, 24 BB, 161 H, 22 HR

In Minneapolis, people have been comparing pitchers to Brad Radke since before Radke was even born. Honestly, though, Kevin Slowey really is a lot like Brad Radke. In 2008 he walked a scant 1.35 batters per inning, better than any other pitcher in baseball (min. 150 innings pitched). Like other Twins pitchers, he struggled with the gopher ball. Slowey has never scared anyone with his fastball, but in 2008, he was able to duplicate his success in the minors by utilizing his pinpoint command and intelligent selection of off-speed pitches.

Critics can read into his season what they will. It was not excellent by any means, but for a pitcher who has demonstrated an ability to adjust to higher levels of competition, 2008 may have been preparation for a 2009 coming out party.

Glen Perkins: 12-4, 4.41 ERA in 151 IP; 74 K, 39 BB, 81 H, 25 HR

Whenever people talk about the Twins’ young pitchers, they’ll list off three or four of them—Liriano, Baker, Slowey, maybe Blackburn, used to be Garza, even Bonser—but for some reason, Glen Perkins is always forgotten. That might be because he spent two years in relief, or because his ascent through the minors was kind of herky-jerky. Whatever the case may be, the lefty finally got a chance as a full-time starter this year after Bonser lost his spot in the rotation in mid-April. His record looks good, but unless he can substantially lower his home runs allowed and his 1.470 WHIP, Perkins will find himself back in the bullpen come springtime. He relies heavily on his low-90s fastball, and uses it to pitch to contact, getting just 4.41 K/9 while allowing a .344 opponents OBP. Glen Perkins is a better pitcher than he exhibited in 2008. For his sake and the team’s, fans should hope that next season he can limit or at least control batters’ contact a little better.

Tomorrow’s Probables

At the beginning of the off-season, there was speculation that Minnesota would be a part of the Jake Peavy discussions, but San Diego has since ruled that out . Barring further moves, the rotation will include Liriano, Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn. Like in 2008, the fifth spot will probably be a contest among Perkins, Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and possibly Boof Bonser. Humber had a wildly inconsistent season in Rochester but got it together down the stretch; Mulvey wasn’t terribly impressive there either, but got a fair number of strikeouts. Brian Duensing emerged from nowhere in the farm system as a legitimate candidate, and pitched well in Beijing for the Olympic team.

For those who don’t start the year in the rotation, there are three distinct possibilities. The first is to go to the bullpen, where the Twins were uncharacteristically shaky in 2008, owing largely to Pat Neshek’s elbow injury. That’s a likely destination for Humber as well as Bonser, provided that he’s not traded. Perkins, who has experience there, is less likely to rejoin the relievers because of the success of fellow lefties Jose Mijares and Craig Breslow. The second option is Triple-A; the Twins have a good deal of pitching talent at the A-level, but their rotations in the upper minors are questionable at best.

Last, the Twins will probably be actively pursuing trade options that involve some of their pitchers. They’d love to unload Bonser. Liriano might be the only untouchable among them if they find a good deal for a bat on the left side of the infield, or a reliable set-up man.

In sum, 2008 was a unexpectedly good year for the Twins, and much of the credit should go to the performance of their young but talented starting pitchers. The rotation will probably be substantially the same next season, with the bonus (I hope) of not wasting innings on Livan Hernandez. For this reason and others, the team’s future looks extremely bright.