2008 Season Review: NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers: It was a tale of two seasons for the Dodgers, who rallied to a division title with a nice mix of homegrown talent, veteran acquisitions and a few key east coast transplants.

What Worked: In order for a team to win the division despite placing next-to-last in the N.L. in scoring, they’d better have a pretty solid pitching staff, and the Dodgers did. Leading the rotation were 35-year-old Derek Lowe and 23-year-old Chad Billingsley, both consistently excellent throughout the season. Hiroki Kuroda didn’t have the impact some had expected of him, but he did manage to strike out three times as many batters as he walked, and joined Lowe and Billingsley in throwing over 180 innings.

If the starters were good, the bullpen was great—as a unit, they were second only to the Phillies in preventing runs. Getting 116 innings out of Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton played a big role in that trend, but even more innings were disposed of by an array of unheralded middle relievers such as Cory Wade, Hong-Chih Kuo and Dodger retread Chan Ho Park. Unlike their offense, the Dodgers’ pitching was remarkably consistent all year.

Going into the season, it was clear that the Dodgers had the potential to compete in the playoffs, if only they put their best team forward. This was particularly worrying in the outfield, where the promising young Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp were jockeying for position with Juan Pierre (OPS in 2007: .684) and Andruw Jones (.724). After a disastrous trial with Jones in center, manager Joe Torre stuck primarily with a lineup of Kemp in center, Ethier in right and Pierre/Manny Ramirez in left. Kemp and Ethier rose to the challenge, leading the team in home runs and getting on base over a third of the time. Add in workmanlike efforts from Russell Martin, James Loney and Jeff Kent, and Torre could scrounge up enough runs for the pitchers to work with.

All this, of course, before packaging Andy Laroche and single-A pitcher Bryan Morris off to Pittsburgh as part of a three-way deal to pick up Ramirez, who proceeded to have one of the more spectacular post-trade seasons in memory. Playing 53 games in blue, Ramirez hit a blistering .396/.483/.743, walked almost as often as he struck out, and more generally provided an enormous lift for the team going into the post-season.

What Didn’t Work: Well, the Andruw Jones experiment didn’t work, but you already knew that. The offense was a weakness all season, or at least until Ramirez arrived. The Dodgers tried various experiments with stop-gap veteran pitching, none of which were very successful. Brad Penny was not pitching well before missing nearly two months with injuries; Esteban Loaiza pitched even worse, and got released after seven appearances; Greg Maddux came over from San Diego late in the season and allowed more than a hit an inning. Rafael Furcal played only 36 games all season, leaving a gaping hole at shortstop that Angel Berroa failed to fill.

Shopping List: It will be a busy winter in SoCal. Job 1-A is making a decision one way or the other with Scott Boras and Manny Ramirez, who are doing their damndest to dupe the Dodgers to the tune of six years and nine digits. They’d be well advised to re-sign Furcal, but also need to address third base, probably through free agency. Lowe and possibly Penny will sign elsewhere, so Los Angeles will likely enter into the bidding for C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy.

Arizona Diamondbacks:Despite a lot of positives, including a lead in the division for most of the year, Arizona failed to get back into the playoffs. They scored eight more runs in 2008 than they did in 2007, and allowed 26 fewer, yet won eight fewer games overall.
What Worked: The addition of Danny Haren in the spring was a huge shot in the arm for the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Brandon Webb had a better record, but Haren struck out more and walked fewer. Beyond the two aces, Randy Johnson bounced back from an injury-filled 2007 and made 30 starts at age 44. He ended the season with 295 career victories, and will definitely be good for at least a half dozen next season. Chad Qualls and Juan Cruz provided steady middle relief all year, and Chris Young was the leader of an unremarkable offense. For D-Backs fans, the best thing to come of this season has to be the continued development of Young, Conor Jackson, Justin Upton, and the rest of the young veterans.

What Didn’t Work: After going 20-8 in March and April, Arizona only had a winning record in one other month—July, when they went 14-11. For the second consecutive season, no offensive player had an OPS+ over 115, a number which will cause problems for the best pitching staffs. Closer Brandon Lyon gave up 75 hits in 60 innings, and the infield defense was generally poor.

The Shopping List: The Diamondbacks needs to look through their stable of young talent and decide which of them are part of the future core and which are not. They have needs in the infield and possibly in the rotation, especially if Randy Johnson leaves. Unfortunately, they have neither a lot of money nor available prospects, having dealt most of the latter last winter.

Colorado Rockies :At the end of August, the Rockies were six games back in a mediocre division; most pundits had written them off months earlier. But then, something miraculous happened…. They went 10-14 in September and finished at 74-88, 10 games back of Los Angeles. 2007, it wasn’t.

What Worked: The Rockies had a solidly balanced offense in which three players hit over 20 home runs. They led the N.L. in stolen bases, thanks in large part to Willy Taveras. With some notable exceptions, the young players who emerged during the 2007 pennant race made substantial progress this season, led by catcher Chris Iannetta. In his first season as a starter, Iannetta got on base nearly 40% of the time, and his .505 slugging percentage was second only to Brian McCann among N.L. catchers. Matt Holliday led the team offensively once again, hitting .321/.409/.538. Brad Hawpe quietly posted his third straight solid season, and Ryan Spilborghs hit .313 off the bench. On the mound, Aaron Cook built on his 2007 success and led the team with 16 wins, and Brian Fuentes gave his stock in the free agency market a very big boost (see below).

What Didn’t Work: Overall, Colorado was just about the most average team in baseball this season—and that’s not a good thing. Offensively, they ranked sixth in batting average, seventh in slugging, ninth in home runs, eighth in scoring. The hitters suffered from a variety of problems: Todd Helton getting a year older, Troy Tulowitzki missing time with an injury, then Tulowitzki and Garrett Atkins failing to perform up to their previous standards. Atkins in particular has been subject to a lot of scrutiny lately as his name surfaces in trade speculation , but his three year trends are alarming. In 2006, his BB/K ratio was 1.04; in 2007, it fell to .72, and last season it was down again to .40.

The Rockies were equally ineffective at preventing runs. The situations in the starting rotation and the bullpen were analogous—talent at the top (Ubaldo Jiminez and Cook among starters, Fuentes and Taylor Bucholz among relievers) made little difference because the rest of the pitching was so weak. Simply put, a team cannot hand Jeff Francis, Jorge de la Rosa, Mark Redman, Glendon Rusch and Livan Hernandez were all mediocre, and ate up a lot of innings in so being. As a team, the Rockies only recorded one shutout, by Jiminez. The only bullpens to give up more hits than Colorado’s were in Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Cincinnati—not good company.

The Shopping List: Perhaps only San Diego will be out-selling Colorado this winter. Team leader Matt Holliday is already out the door; Atkins (via trade) and Fuentes (free agency) are more than likely to follow. The most pressing need is clearly pitching of all shapes and sizes. The Holliday trade was a solid step in the right direction, and more are likely to follow.

San Francisco Giants:It’s not often that a team can exceed preseason expectations by finishing nine games under .500 and finishing next-to-last in their division, but the Giants did just that. In the year 1 A.B., San Francisco let the kids play, to encouraging results.

What Worked: A Cy Young Award isn’t enough to express how wonderful Tim Lincecum’s season was. Since baseball was integrated, only two pitchers have ever had a higher winning percentage while playing for a team that finished under .500. Steve Hargan went 11-3 for the 1970 Indians (76-86), and Marvin Freeman went 10-2 for the Rockies in strike-shortened 1994. Lincecum struck out 265 batters in 227 innings, and he only walked 84. Lincecum is also only 24 years old. Matt Cain had a strong season as well, regardless of his 8-14 record. Rookie Alex Hinshaw struggled with his control out of the bullpen, yet posted strong strikeout numbers. Although Aaron Rowand didn’t produce much at the plate, he did play a strong center field.

What Didn’t Work: If I let Andruw Jones off the hook, I have to do the same for Barry Zito, right? At least he could lift his throwing arm high enough to collect those paychecks all summer. As was widely predicted, the Giants’ offense fell off a cliff without Barry Bonds—43 fewer runs, and that for a team that had been next-to-last in scoring in the N.L. in 2007. Before being traded, Ray Durham led regulars with a 109 OPS+, and was also part of an extremely porous infield. It is not often that a good team’s best hitter is its second baseman; if the second baseman in question is a 36-year-old Ray Durham, it’s definitely not a good team. Beyond Lincecum and Cain, the rotation was not strong, although Jonathan Sanchez showed promise. Closer Brian Wilson struck out a man an inning, but gave up a hit an inning as well.

Shopping List: The Giants have money to throw around and some interesting prospects in the pipeline, but it’s not clear whether they’ll be involved in the bidding for any of this winter’s big names. All four infield spots are open, and there is a small surplus in the outfield. What will really be important by the bay this off-season is the organizational approach that Brian Sabean et al. adopt—whether to spend some money up-front to try and jump-start the franchise, or to wait for the minor league talent to join Lincecum and Cain in the majors.

San Diego Padres:On March 31, Padres ace Jake Peavy allowed just three hits in seven innings, leading his team past Houston on opening day. The following day, Chris Young won a pitchers’ duel, 2-1, and the Friars were 2-0, tied for first place. Over the next 160 games, they went 61-99. But those first two games, they were really something to see.

What Worked: Anywhere, anytime, Adrian Gonzalez can play on my team. For the third consecutive season, he slugged over .500 and got on base over a third of the time. Brian Giles had a bounce in his 37-year-old step, putting up his best numbers since 2005. In his Padres swan song, Jake Peavy was tremendous, although even he couldn’t put up a winning record for this team. Reliever Mike Adams rebounded from serious knee surgeries to emerge as a bright spot in the bullpen, and although they didn’t blow anyone away in their major league debuts, highly touted rookies Matt Antonelli and Nick Hundley got their feet wet at the big league level. Chase Headley had more success, rapping out 89 hits in 91 games.

What Didn’t Work: Peavy aside, the Padres’ pitching was atrocious. Greg Maddux had his worst season since 1987; Chris Young missed half of the season with a broken nose and a strained arm. The bullpen had the second-highest ERA in the National League. Offensively, San Diego scored the fewest runs in the league, were 13 ^th in walks, and third in strikeouts. They only stole 36 bases as a team—fewer than ten individual players.

Shopping List: Like the Giants, the Padres have some interesting philosophical decisions to make. There’s a decent youth movement afoot, yet lots of money is tied up in veteran talent (and non-talent). Unfortunately, GM Kevin Towers may have his hands tied, as rumors abound that expenses will be slashed. The first item up for auction will be Peavy, who will bring a hefty bounty in return. Trevor Hoffman is already gone , and they’d love to unload Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene; in fact, probably only Headley is considered untouchable. San Diego doesn’t have holes to fill so much as it has isolated points to build around. This winter, expect them to add a good deal of young, cheap talent that can mature in the California sun for the next few seasons.