Hot Stove from the Capital

Washington GM Jim Bowden has his own transition going on in the Capital. His ambitious trade with the Marlins stoked a DC hot stove that had been stone cold. Change is the watchword in Washington these days and it could be washing over the baseball fortunes of the Nationals.

The announcement that Washington was acquiring Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen from the Marlins for Emilio Bonafacio and two minor leaguers is an important signal to Washington fans. The Nationals are buyers. In the Florida trade they made a commitment to absorb the salary hikes both players will see in arbitration and it is a change in direction that has temporarily buoyed the rapidly deflating attention of fans.

Senior sports writer at the Washington Post , Tom Boswell, argued that the trade is “a sign that ownership gets it.” The willingness to sign these two players marks the Nationals as the mid-market team they should be rather than a team whose $40 million dollar payroll is one of the lowest in the game. The Lerner family that owns the Nationals was beginning to turn off fans with the high prices and the low salary commitments. There is much more to be done, but there are signs that this trade is just the first step.

On the same page of the Washington Post , Dave Sheinin was covering the Nationals unlikely pursuit of Mark Teixeira. Everyone in DC understands that the odds are long for the Nationals to sign the top tier free agent, but there is no doubt that just the rumored pursuit is one more sign that the Lerners, “get it.”

It is worth a look at how bad the Nationals are and how far the acquisitions, real and rumored, will take them along the path to becoming competitive. Scott Olsen–25 next season–is a high upside acquisition for a pitching staff that was one of the worst in the NL with a 4.66 ERA. Willingham–even in an off-year with only 15 homers– becomes the defacto cleanup hitter in a weak lineup that managed less than four runs per game. By themselves they will not achieve notable change.

GM Bowden has been saying, however, that the team needs a left-handed power hitter at first base. Some writers think Willingham was acquired to fill that need, but Bowden’s remarks indicate that he has penciled Willingham into the outfield. Willingham bats right and there is considerable buzz around a short-list of targets the Nationals are aiming for–other than Teixeira. Adam Dunn has been high on Bowden’s list since last year in the run up to the trade deadline. They are also looking at the possibility of bringing Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, or Paul Konerko to the nation’s capitol.

Any of those sluggers would make a difference on the 2009 Nationals. The anemic offense that in 2008 scored only 3.98 runs per game and hit only 117 home runs could change appreciably with two new potent middle of the order bats. Adding a cleanup hitter like Teixeira, Dunn or any of the others–hitting in front of Willingham should push home runs to 160-175 in 2009 and increase run production to approximately 4.65 per game. At that level the offense would suddenly be in the middle of the pack.

As bad as the worst offense was, the pitching wasn’t any better. Scott Olsen helps but to what degree? His arrest for DUI and his clubhouse fights with Joe Girardi and Miguel Cabrera put him at the top of the trade list for Florida. On the other hand, his 4.20 ERA and 33 starts make him the staff ace in DC. He joins Tim Redding and John Lannan to form the core of the rotation. Colin Balester is the likely fourth starter, but at 23 he would benefit from sliding down the ladder to the fifth starter role.

There have been rumors that the Nationals are likely to pursue pitching help in the off season as well. The Nationals will not be in the hunt for high priced arms like Sabathia or Derek Lowe. But if Washington is going to invest in high-priced help at first base, then they have to do more to bolster the pitching. More likely than a free agent signing is the addition of a pitcher via trade. GM Bowden has said that the addition of Josh Willingham provides flexibility to trade an outfielder, and there is one team notably in the market.

The Nationals want to trade right fielder Austin Kearns and DH Wily Mo Pena. Kearns was out in 2008 with injuries for much of the season and his 2007 was a big step backward. But Tampa Bay needs a right fielder and has pitching to trade. The teams have talked in the past without success, but the team web site rumors that Washington is pursuing the Rays’ Edwin Jackson. Whether Kearns can command an Edwin Jackson is hard to know, but the Rays have had remarkable success in rehabbing struggling players like Carlos Pena and Eric Hinske. The Nationals also have minor league outfielders Roger Bernadina and Leonard Davis who are major-league ready.

Although additional help in the rotation is needed in 2009, the Nationals bullpen was equally bad in 2008. They could not hold the few leads they were given last year. After Chad Cordro went down last April with injuries the Washington bullpen imploded. Luis Ayala failed completely as a setup to Jon Rauch who was the one bright spot. But the rest of the pen was able to get the ball to him with a lead only 22 times.

In 2009 Joel Hanrahan will close. He looked impressive in his tryout after the trade of Rauch at the end of July, but he is young and learning. The bullpen also added Steve Shell who compiled a 2.16 ERA and Mike Hinckley who was unscored upon during the last month. The bar is set pretty low after 2008, but new faces in the rotation and in the bullpen will have to lower team ERA by half a run per game. It’s a tall order but it would put the pitching staff in the middle of the pack as well.

Washington fans are waiting to see just how far the Lerner family is willing to go to raise the level of performance over 2008. It is a long climb and even an aggressive off-season do-over will likely leave the Nationals little more than a .500 team. The price is not going to be cheap, but local sports writers are making the point that the money is there. For the Lerners to sit on it is penny-wise, poundfoolhearty.

Stan Kasten has emphasized that new additions will have to be young–“in their twenties.” So the plan to build for a longer term future with young players is still alive and well. Kasten and Bowden are campaigning to have it both ways, more competitive in 2009 but continuing to emphasize youth. If it all works then there is a chance that in his first term Barack Obama may yet get to see a home team that is in competition in September. Now that would be change DC baseball fans can believe in.